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eamrhein
High Card
Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Posts: 2
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 Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:24 pm Post subject: Winning% and profit formula |
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any one able to help me with an expected profit formula?
If you buy in for $11.50 and you get $22 what winning percentage do you need to break even? |
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Sand Wedge_100
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 27 Sep 2007
Posts: 1926
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 6:30 pm Post subject: |
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| DO WATTTT???? |
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cardplayer52
Four of a Kind
Joined: 25 Jan 2008
Posts: 317
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:13 pm Post subject: Re: Winning% and profit formula |
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| eamrhein wrote: |
any one able to help me with an expected profit formula?
If you buy in for $11.50 and you get $22 what winning percentage do you need to break even? |
(total profit/total buyin) X 100
if you buyin for $11.50 and win a prize of $22 that would be...
($10.50/$11.50) X 100 = 91.3% ROI(return on investment) |
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NoTilt
Royal Flush
Joined: 16 Apr 2009
Posts: 816
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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EV = SUM (profit of x * probability of x) over all situations x.
For example, let's say you roll a die, and you get paid according to the following table:
Roll 1 ----> Win $10
Roll 2 ----> Lose $20
Roll 3 ----> Nothing
Roll 4 ----> Win $20
Roll 5 -----> Lose $50
Roll 6 -----> Win $100
Your EV is:
(1/6) * 10 + (1/6) * -20 + (1/6) * 0 + (1/6) * 20 + (1/6) * -50 + (1/6) * 100
(1/6) * 60
$10
Thus, every time you roll a die, you will win $10 on average.
To compute your EV in a SnG, you need to know your chances of coming in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Knowing this, you also know your chances of losing. Just plug in your profit in each place (remembering to subtract your buyin and entry fee), and you'll know YOUR personal EV for how much you should make in every SnG.
Last edited by NoTilt on Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:17 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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cardplayer52
Four of a Kind
Joined: 25 Jan 2008
Posts: 317
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: Winning% and profit formula |
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| cardplayer52 wrote: |
| eamrhein wrote: |
any one able to help me with an expected profit formula?
If you buy in for $11.50 and you get $22 what winning percentage do you need to break even? |
(total profit/total buyin) X 100
if you buyin for $11.50 and win a prize of $22 that would be...
($10.50/$11.50) X 100 = 91.3% ROI(return on investment) |
or are you asking if you only win $22 and it costs you $11.50 to play then it's simply $11.50/$22 which would be 52% of the time you got to win to break even. |
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eamrhein
High Card
Joined: 16 Sep 2009
Posts: 2
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:17 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks, both formulas will come in handy |
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FTPAcademy
Moderator
Joined: 09 Mar 2009
Posts: 76
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| Posted: Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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Just wanted to let you all know that we have an ROI and Variance lesson in the works!
What do you feel are the most confusing concepts surrounding ROI and Variance? What would you like to see in a lesson about these topics? |
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JamesDaBear
Full House
Joined: 28 Feb 2009
Posts: 190
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| Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2009 4:12 am Post subject: |
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| For me, the most confusing part is using ROI and Variance when it comes to moving up to new limits and how to judge your success without really knowing what to expect as you move up... also a review of the different ROIs you can expect for the different games you play, such as SNGs, MTTs and cash games. This will be a welcome addition to the FTP Academy education. |
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