Online Poker Forum - Should I sit out in a sat. with lots of chips?

cchappa · Two Pair Joined: 02 Jul 2005 Posts: 57

UB $100 Sat into 50 seat Aruba guarantee

Top 25 in the satellite I'm in advance to the 50 seat guarantee next week.
There are 45 players remaining.
I have 8585 chips, currently second place.
Avg chip stack when it's down to 25 is 5340.

Do I even play? Or do I sit?

VRod105 · Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 3:28 pm Post subject:

You have to be careful. I have been in satellites that I thought I was way ahead in, and ended on the bubble. In any satellite if you have a gauranteed spot you should fold or only play premium hands against the short stacks. Satellite play is about making it to the next level.

Play smart watch the chip counts, be aware who is being forced to shove.

AllInDrawinDead · Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 4:04 pm Post subject:

you want to try to eliminate small stacks when you have a good hand but you don't want to double them up. also, you want to stay out of the way of other stacks that can put a dent in yours. in late position if it's folded around you can make a small raise, steal blinds & antes to pad your stack and increase your chances of making the cut.

NoTilt · Royal Flush Joined: 16 Apr 2009 Posts: 830

Every rule has exceptions, but I think VRod and AIDD have the right idea. You should be tighter than tight when you get significantly above the avg at the bubble, particularly if you're actually NEAR the bubble. Keep in mind that some of those 8K chips you're gonna need to pay for blinds/antes. But I think it's safe to say you can stick to AA, KK, QQ, AK played vs short stacks.

Here's my big exception. I was playing one of those silly miniFTOPS satellites for the satty challenge, $1.25 + 25c KO PLO8. I had amassed about 100 BB at the FT though a fellow big stack that doltishly shoved second nut flush to my nut flush. Everyone else has about 8 BB. Two more till the bubble. What's my line? SHOVE SHOVE SHOVE SHOVE! I've got a dead lock on the tourney seat at this point; ain't nobody takin' that away from me. But there are 2 more bounties left, and I'll be damned if I'm letting anyone else touch them!

Not surprisingly, everyone else's line is FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. They want someone ELSE to take a stand against me. It's a great game theory-type problem, where I can use the fact that I -KNOW- their best response to my shove is to fold.

francois8 · Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:18 pm Post subject:

cchappa, sitting out has no advantage. Just get the cards dealt to you and don't do anything stupid. You'll probably have one or two chances to get the blinds / antes with minimal resistance. Just sit there and fold anything marginal.

mysteriouschef · Posted: Sun Sep 06, 2009 5:55 pm Post subject:

I think that you need to have 60% of the average stack size when the seats are paid to Considerably tighten up.
Example

45 people start with 1500 chips and 5 people get seats.

This means that there is 67,500 chips in play and when it gets down to the paid seats the average stack size will be 67,500/5 = 13,500.

So if I had 60% of that (13,500*.6 = 8,100) then I start to consider tightening up and folding to the prize.

cchappa · Two Pair Joined: 02 Jul 2005 Posts: 57

Thank you for all the advice (even though I didn't get to read any until after the sat ended).

I decided to play smart but tight. I folded marginal hands, even in a limped SB. I scared the sh!t out of shorties with premium hand shoves (and took one out). When it was all over, I got my seat into the $500+$30 fifty-seat gurantee next Sunday, ended up 2nd when the bubble busted.

Since I felt really good about my play in that sat, I decided to play a $10 rebuy sat into next Sunday's $200K guaranteed (UB too). I must have been doing something right, because when it was said and done, I came out on top when the bubble burst (guaranteed three seats, and that's all that were awarded: Ub had an overlay). Best news is, I didn't even rebuy/add on.

So now I have another dilemma: I now have seats in next Sunday's Aruba 50-seat gurantee, AND the $200K guarantee, which happen to start at the exact same time. I've played multiple tables before (only 4 max, though: I'm just a lucky amateur), but never two tourneys at once with such large buy-ins (for me).

I'm guessing I should keep playing my normal tight-aggressive game. I just know I will have a dead-money bullseye on me in both.

And my wife wants to know when will I start winning good money instead of expensive seats, ha ha ha...

NoTilt · Royal Flush Joined: 16 Apr 2009 Posts: 830

I have a rule of sattys: if you can unregister, do it. You're either playing a satellite that's WAY under your bankroll and has both a high rake and a low return for your time invested, or you wind up winning a seat into a target tourney that's too big for your bankroll.

Exceptions to this one abound. Supersatellites with overlays are a good idea if your BR can take the swing, even if the target tourney can't be unregistered.

Good luck next week tho', if you do play those target tourneys!! Sometimes more tables keep you more focused and keep you from playing marginal hands out of "boredom"....

francois8 · Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 12:44 am Post subject:

mysteriouschef · Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 1:34 am Post subject:

cchappa · Two Pair Joined: 02 Jul 2005 Posts: 57

chef is right: I meant playing at most four tables at a time, not 4-person-per-table.

I really haven't decided what to do if I get an Aruba seat. My account will go up $3K (nice return for $11) and then I have to decide what to do with the $5500 seat. I can't get the cash value for it form UB, but I could strike a deal and work it through UB.

Then again, I am getting a tad ahead of myself. Probably jinxing myself Shocked

I'm gonna play both (since I can't unregister from either). I'm going in with the mindset to play smart (i.e. tight aggressive). Having both games going at once will indeed force me to abandon a lot of trouble marginal hands.

I'll be sure to return with my results next week. I might have an Aruba seat for sale.

MPMTL · Message Board Junkie Joined: 07 Oct 2008 Posts: 1821

mysteriouschef · Posted: Mon Sep 07, 2009 1:10 pm Post subject:

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