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jesse6520 Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Oct 2007 Posts: 367
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Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:17 pm Post subject: river decision 10 dollar 90 man ko ftp |
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do you vbet this riv and if you do what is your betsizing and what is you plan to a crai?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 0.00 BB (8 handed) - Converter Tool from
MP2 (3360.00)
Hero (CO) (2980.00)
Button (6640.00)
SB (5795.00)
BB (2775.00)
UTG (3795.00)
UTG+1 (4700.00)
MP1 (5987.00)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q , J
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 80.00, MP1 raises to 160.00, 1 fold, Hero calls 160.00, 2 folds, BB calls 80.00, UTG+1 calls 80.00
Flop: (680.00) 8 , 9 , 4 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets 120.00, Hero raises to 480.00, BB calls 480.00, 1 fold, MP1 calls 360.00
Turn: (2120.00) 4 (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks
River: (2120.00) J (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero ??? |
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MoneyRobr High Card
Joined: 27 Aug 2008 Posts: 10
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Posted: Sat Aug 30, 2008 3:21 pm Post subject: Value bet River |
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I would value bet on the river. You very likely have the best hand as it looks like all draws were missed except for QT or very unlikely T7. It's very unlikely your opponents have one of these hands because they both checked the river. Either one or both were on a draw, or called you on flop with an 8 or 9. Also a small chance one of your opponents had J9 or J8 or a 4. But again they would probably bet the river with one of these hands as well unless they are playing very cautiously. I think a 500 bet would be a good amount for 3 reasons. 1.) It doesn't commit you to the pot, if you get raised (unlikely) you can lay it down depending on your read. 2.) If one of your opponents has an 8 or 9, they might call a small river bet getting over 5 to 1 odds, plus you showed weakness checking the turn. 3.) If your'e willing to fold to an unlikely raise, you still have 23x the BB left.
Also, I'm not sure I would have raised on the flop. Three other players were still in the hand, plus you had postion with more than 5 to 1 odds and 10 possible outs to see the turn. But I don't think it was a terrible play neither. After all aggresiveness is a good trait in poker.  |
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MVP04X3 Full House
Joined: 06 Oct 2005 Posts: 154 Location: sitting behind chips that used to be yours
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Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: |
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| I think I check this one down a lot of the time. It is very possible he called with a set putting you on a possible draw. The 4 on the turn gives him a lock on the hand. I would personally check the river if I flopped a set against an aggressive opponent. Another very distinct possibility is him having 89 and the 4 on the turn messing up his 2 pair. There is also a chance he called you with Ace 4, 7 10, 10 jack, 67, any 8, any 9, or any 4. What beats you? Pocket 4s, 8s, 9s, pairs over jacks, Q10, any 4, any jack with a better kicker (don't see how he would have called a reraise with AJ or KJ, but in a $10 I've seen stranger plays). This one is close depending on my read of my opponent, but I have already put quite a few chips in this pot and finally hit a hand I can showdown. TP ok kicker is plenty to show down here. I feel more hands that can beat you call you down than you beat. Check, if you win you probably got lucky, if you lose you still have plenty to work with. |
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