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zingbust
Full House
Joined: 21 Apr 2008
Posts: 166
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 Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:10 am Post subject: How can you win if you never outdraw anyone? |
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In order to win a tourney, you have to get lucky, but what if it's always your opponent who's the lucky one? How do you overcome bad luck? For example, lets say it's 3 handed on the final table and you're playing pretty good, but there's one guy who's not playing very well, but when you get a great hand to finally beat him, he beats you anyway because of his good fortune.
And then carry that same theme throughout all your tourneys, always the other guy getting the lucky breaks when it really really really matters the most. How do you overcome that?
I've been playing some winner-take-all satellites and coming very very very close, but can't get it done because of the luckbox nature of my opponents. And the players that are better than me are also luckier too. In other words if the good player is all in vs the bad player, the same bad luck doesn't necessarily apply to him as it would to say someone like me. I'm not saying I'm the only one who gets unlucky, but maybe there really is something to luck being the difference between the winners and losers, even taken in the long run.
Over say 1 billion hands of poker, the better player should come out ahead of the worse player, right? Well, maybe not. Maybe the bad player just happens to get lucky at the right time and win say the 2003 WSOP, whereas the guy who's played a billion hands comes up short, so that one win by the lucky guy is enough to make him come out on top after all. Right? |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: |
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| A lot of egotistic players think they are "unluckier" than other people and stubbornly refuse to fix their bad play. But they are only deluding themselves. In the long run, everyone has the same amount of good and bad luck. |
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esperz
Full House
Joined: 10 Apr 2008
Posts: 220
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 1:50 am Post subject: |
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If you were dealt Aces each and every time throughout the whole tourney... You'll still lose about 20% of the time. You might lose in the very first all in at a generous 15% chance, or an opponent(s) could double suckout your stack.
Moral: Sometimes it just isn't meant to be. No matter what the cards are dealt.
...But you take steps to MINIMIZE those chances. Choose your spots. ...but I feel your pain. Reason I hate every single FT I've ever made it to. |
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zingbust
Full House
Joined: 21 Apr 2008
Posts: 166
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 8:48 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| A lot of egotistic players think they are "unluckier" than other people and stubbornly refuse to fix their bad play. But they are only deluding themselves. In the long run, everyone has the same amount of good and bad luck. |
No, I'm actually cool about it. Whenever I seem to suffer bad luck at the crucial times and it starts to get to me, I just find a forum to post on and start ranting about bad luck vs good luck or some other such nonsense, and then I immediately feel better about it.
The minute I posted my op last night, I was fine and went to bed feeling good and slept like a baby and am ready for more today! |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1552
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: How can you win if you never outdraw anyone? |
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| zingbust wrote: |
In order to win a tourney, you have to get lucky, but what if it's always your opponent who's the lucky one? How do you overcome bad luck? For example, lets say it's 3 handed on the final table and you're playing pretty good, but there's one guy who's not playing very well, but when you get a great hand to finally beat him, he beats you anyway because of his good fortune.
And then carry that same theme throughout all your tourneys, always the other guy getting the lucky breaks when it really really really matters the most. How do you overcome that?
I've been playing some winner-take-all satellites and coming very very very close, but can't get it done because of the luckbox nature of my opponents. And the players that are better than me are also luckier too. In other words if the good player is all in vs the bad player, the same bad luck doesn't necessarily apply to him as it would to say someone like me. I'm not saying I'm the only one who gets unlucky, but maybe there really is something to luck being the difference between the winners and losers, even taken in the long run.
Over say 1 billion hands of poker, the better player should come out ahead of the worse player, right? Well, maybe not. Maybe the bad player just happens to get lucky at the right time and win say the 2003 WSOP, whereas the guy who's played a billion hands comes up short, so that one win by the lucky guy is enough to make him come out on top after all. Right? |
I think the rough % of tournament money cashes is like 25% for a player to be considered competant - thats ITM cashes, not final tables or top 3 finishes so you might have to play a fair amount of tournaments to get there.
I think I've played about 90 SNGS on Party Poker, and I've only made the money about 27 times, so obviously I've done nothing in 63 out of 90 games. |
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DrAndrian
Straight Flush
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 383
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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There's lots of variance in poker, especially in tournaments. But if you're placing in the money or final table often, looks like you're doing way better than me  |
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pokeropie
Royal Flush
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 779
Location: Ohio
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: |
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| The tin foil hat trick works for me |
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Teteban
Pair
Joined: 28 Apr 2008
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 11:26 am Post subject: |
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| I'd say online poker is so obviously riggat |
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Totes2Techs
Full House
Joined: 18 Jan 2008
Posts: 188
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| Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: Re: How can you win if you never outdraw anyone? |
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| zingbust wrote: |
In order to win a tourney, you have to get lucky, but what if it's always your opponent who's the lucky one? How do you overcome bad luck? For example, lets say it's 3 handed on the final table and you're playing pretty good, but there's one guy who's not playing very well, but when you get a great hand to finally beat him, he beats you anyway because of his good fortune.
And then carry that same theme throughout all your tourneys, always the other guy getting the lucky breaks when it really really really matters the most. How do you overcome that?
I've been playing some winner-take-all satellites and coming very very very close, but can't get it done because of the luckbox nature of my opponents. And the players that are better than me are also luckier too. In other words if the good player is all in vs the bad player, the same bad luck doesn't necessarily apply to him as it would to say someone like me. I'm not saying I'm the only one who gets unlucky, but maybe there really is something to luck being the difference between the winners and losers, even taken in the long run.
Over say 1 billion hands of poker, the better player should come out ahead of the worse player, right? Well, maybe not. Maybe the bad player just happens to get lucky at the right time and win say the 2003 WSOP, whereas the guy who's played a billion hands comes up short, so that one win by the lucky guy is enough to make him come out on top after all. Right? |
From the sounds of this............I'd say your name is really Mike Matusow!
GL brother! |
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BladeBoyle
Pair
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Sun May 18, 2008 6:56 am Post subject: Re: How can you win if you never outdraw anyone? |
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what you need to understand it what style you play and what style the others play and the weakness of those styles
a loose player tends to play draws and high card hands aggressively and tends to over play low and middy pairs over aggressive AK altho a great draw isnt a hand its a draw to a nut str8 or if suited the apsolute nuts but its a draw
yer delt AKo
if you know the other player is loose and willing to play K2 suited or unsuited and you raise and he calls
flop hits
k 7 10
you bet pot
He calls or raises 2.5 the blinds
you need to think he hit his k and may have a rag he is drawing to
if the turn hits say 2 you might wrongly think yer safe and raise...
if he calls or re raises you better think "i only have one pair i better check
test betthen fold or just fold
my point is we all can over play a hand ..AK is one of the most overly played hands ther is this happin to me i fell in love with my ak but in my case it was the river and he draw to the river with a king rag. it pissed me off just as it does you but i dont blame luck i blame myself and negitive variance(thats math for luck) its around 10% of the game at times even 25%
this next hand happined to me as well
three handed Im last to act
i hit Ac Ad
i bet big before the flop so its me and two others
FLOP
As ts Ks
they both bet pot i call
turn
9s or some rag
they bet ...big raise by the first to act, half his stack ...Ihe second to act reraised 25% more
Im dead meat !!nut flush... and near nut str8 beats me.. i fold
river flushed and ak high flush won
if you cant figure out yer beat by two pairs or out flushed you wont win and will bet when you need to ...fold you control your own actions... they control theres you arent unlucky you just have a leak in your play that needs fixing
we all do at times |
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