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HuJwang · Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: 100NL - Weird AK spot

BTN seems kinda solid, if a little passive postflop. He's running 22/16 over 100 hands or so. He has built his stack up by hitting two sets and getting paid off on both of them. I've been running around 27/21, and I haven't really been involved in any huge pots.

This is such a strange spot with the cold call preflop. I haven't really seen him do that before and I just don't have any clue what he is doing this with. Can I ever get away from AK hitting in a 3-bet pot? Also, what do you guys think of my flop bet size?

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

MP2 ($101.10)
MP3 ($10.00)
CO ($118.27) (Hero)
BTN ($341.55)
SB ($215.57)
BB ($36.63)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A Heart

, K

MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $13.00, BTN calls $13.00, 3 folds, MP3 calls All-In $5.50,

Flop: 9 Club

, K

, 8

( $38.5 )
Hero bets $25.00, BTN raises to $66.00, Hero ($80.27 behind) ???

StevieWard · Message Board Junkie Joined: 12 Jul 2007 Posts: 1552

I'm not sure what the PT stats mean.....

Has he been 3 betting/4 betting pre flop? Do you think he would do so also with AK/AA/KK as normal?

Assuming he would, he either has (another) set or a flush draw...maybe I'm dumb but I would hope he is on a draw and just shove it all in here.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8149 Location: Sweden

PF I think I just pot it even though MP3 is short. I definitely agree that it's a weird spot as played though and I'd probably end up getting it in and taking a note regardless of what villain shows up with. It's just such a weird line no matter what he has.

The flop bet feels a bit awkward to me and I think I'd bet $35ish or maybe a few bucks less to make it easier for him to just shove if he wants to continue. As it is you're kinda boosting his reverse implied odds, which usually isn't a great thing to do when you want action.

I have a really hard time figuring out what his range is, but it looks pretty strong so I think I might get away from this if his line wasn't so damn weird. As it is though, you're getting good odds and I think you're chopping a ton so getting it in can't be too bad.

Honest_Rob · Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject:

It is a really weird line. If MP3 wasn't so short I'd say it really looked like AA hoping MP3 shoves but since MP3 is short I think it's less likely. As played I think you definitely have to get in in here. Preflop I think I'd put him on TT+, AQ+. Considering his flop action I think we can narrow it to more likely being KK+, AK. Your shove is getting about 2.5 to 1 and your a little less than a 2 to 1 underdog against his range and that's without even considering that he might be bluffing which is unlikely but possible.

drtre1987 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2121

Your break even % is 27.8% if I did the math right. I ran some poker stove calculations and this is what I came up with.

Board: Ks 8s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.940% 08.08% 26.86% 880 2925.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 65.060% 38.20% 26.86% 4160 2925.00 { KK+, AKs, AsQs, AKo }

-------

Board: Ks 8s 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.232% 05.85% 17.38% 985 2925.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 76.768% 59.39% 17.38% 9995 2925.00 { KK+, 99-88, AKs, AsQs, AKo }

So if you include 99 and 88 in his range, then it is a fold, but if you don't, then its a call. But I also included AQ of spades in both of those. I'm not so sure how often he would flat with AQ and then shove with a flush draw, but it is a possibility. I've seen some people do that, but I guess it depends on the villian. If that is not a possibility, then I guess it is an easier fold.

I'd agree with Riddim here and just get it in, although its an annoying spot. It's got to be hard for him to flat with 99 or 88 there because he is getting nowhere near the odds to set mine. So given that, I'd go with the poker stove numbers and say get it in.

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 8:49 am Post subject:

All-in every time. There's way too many drawing hands and worse hands to think about folding.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8149 Location: Sweden

bxball · Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:29 am Post subject:

my first instinct while reading this is to fold. he's not cold-calling you preflop with k-q, more likely that he has something like pocket 8s or 9s. if you say he seems like a solid player he could be making a move on you with J-J or something like that but it doesn't seem likely

edit: also, i do like the $25 bet on the flop. on your end it can simply be a continuation bet, or could be the stone nuts and anything in between, so it's tough for him to get a read on just the betsize on the flop. also, $25 is enough to get an honest feel for where your opponent is.

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