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nowan
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 537
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 Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: Live Game Hand - Call or Fold |
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So this hand was played yesterday at my house. We play a micro stake game with 5c/10c blinds (I've been trying to raise the stakes for some time now without success).
10 Handed, effective stack $11
Hero limps UTG with J 9,
MP limps,
Button raises $0.60
Blinds fold
Hero calls
MP calls
Flop ($1.95): AT4
Hero checks
MP checks
Button bets $1.50
Hero calls
MP calls
Turn ($6.45): Q
Hero bets $2.00
MP folds
Button raises to $8.90 all in
Hero ($6.90 to call into $17.35 pot)...
Button is a solid tight aggressive player. |
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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6272
Location: counting my blessings
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:27 am Post subject: |
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I think you should have checked the turn. Check/raising the turn would have been a much better option than leading out.
EDIT: As played call.
Last edited by Honest_Rob on Sun May 04, 2008 11:49 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8150
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: |
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| Fold PF because you'll end up in a good situation so rarely after limping, then fold again to the raise because those situations are even more rare after limpcalling. Flop is fine I guess, although depending on villain I think you could make a case for all 3 options. Once you get to the turn, why are you making that little bet? It looks like what it is, which is a pretty bad thing vs. anyone thinking since it completely defeats the purpose of the bet. Just check and probably call unless he bets too big, or make a bigger bet if you think you have enough fold equity to justify it. As played you're getting good enough odds to call the rest off and hope to hit. |
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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6272
Location: counting my blessings
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 11:48 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| As played you're getting good enough odds to call the rest off and hope to hit. |
Oops. You're right. I miscalculated. |
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nowan
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 537
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 2:32 pm Post subject: |
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| The odds are just about right only if u put Villain on 2 pair or less. If he has a set, that's 2 no good hearts not to mention he could have a str8 which leaves us with only 9 outs and 2 for a tie. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8150
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| nowan wrote: |
| The odds are just about right only if u put Villain on 2 pair or less. If he has a set, that's 2 no good hearts not to mention he could have a str8 which leaves us with only 9 outs and 2 for a tie. |
No, they're right vs. even against really tight ranges consisting only of "premium" starting hands that have now become TPTK or better.
Board: Ah Th 4s Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.405% 31.40% 00.00% 456 0.00 { Jh9h }
Hand 1: 68.595% 68.60% 00.00% 996 0.00 { AA, QQ, TT, AQs+, ATs, AQo+ } |
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nowan
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 537
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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OK, so here's the twist. I was actually the button in this hand. I was holding KJo and was on a steal attempt which turned the nuts.
When I pushed all in, the guy opened his hand and showed it while he was thinking.
Question is: I was considering for a few seconds to show him I had the nuts and 6 of his outs are no good but decided against it wanting to make a mistake by calling.
Assuming that if I show my hand, he folds 90% of the time, which is more profitable? Showing or not showing? |
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nowan
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 537
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 6:36 pm Post subject: |
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BTW, he called and the river was the 7  |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8150
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| nowan wrote: |
OK, so here's the twist. I was actually the button in this hand. I was holding KJo and was on a steal attempt which turned the nuts.
When I pushed all in, the guy opened his hand and showed it while he was thinking.
Question is: I was considering for a few seconds to show him I had the nuts and 6 of his outs are no good but decided against it wanting to make a mistake by calling.
Assuming that if I show my hand, he folds 90% of the time, which is more profitable? Showing or not showing? |
Not showing, since calling is a mistake against your hand. Btw, this is what pokerstove is for. If the questions of whether you should show him or not was the actual purpose of the thread, it was pretty unnecessary to make it in the first place. |
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nowan
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 537
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| Not showing, since calling is a mistake against your hand. |
Yeah, that's what I figured at the time. I just did the math and it works out that way too, did I do this right?
Lets assume for simplicity that he folds 100% if I show:
EV = 100% * 17.35 = 17.35
If I don't show I assume he calls 100% of time so (let's assume 80% to win with no ties possible for simplicity):
EV = 80% * (17.35 + 6.90) = 19.40
So not showing is more profitable.
| Riddim wrote: |
| Btw, this is what pokerstove is for. If the questions of whether you should show him or not was the actual purpose of the thread, it was pretty unnecessary to make it in the first place. |
No, the main point was to understand if he was justified in calling assuming he doesn't know I have the straight. It just got me wondering about the second question. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Sun May 04, 2008 10:51 pm Post subject: |
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Had to read this to make sure that I wasn't mistaken.
Personally, I wouldn't be too disappointed if somebody called my preflop 6xbb raises with J9. I also wouldn't be too disappointed if somebody make a 90% pot raise on a inside straight draw (particularly with it representing around 15% of his entire stack). |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8150
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon May 05, 2008 12:05 am Post subject: |
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I'm a bit tired right now so I'm only pretty sure that doing it that way works. I used to go back and forth randomly between different ways of making EV calculations but I think
(amount you win)*(how often you win)-(amount you lose)*(how often you lose)
works best overall so I've kinda settled on that one. In this case it would be
Him folding:
8.65*1-8.9*0=8.65
Him calling:
15.35*.8-8.9*.2=10.5
So yeah, since what you did resulted in the same difference between the two cases as well as the same profit I guess I can go from pretty sure to really sure. While makings EV calculations for this situation can be good practice, it really isn't necessary. All you need to do is look at if his call is profitable by comparing his odds of winning to his pot odds. If he's losing money on the call, that money has to go somewhere, right? |
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