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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 546
Location: dariver
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 Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 2:07 pm Post subject: what' s the best play? |
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9 player Sng, action has been fast and furious, 2 or more in an allin pot more hands than not.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t60/t120
6 players
Stack sizes:
UTG: t900
UTG+1: t2914
CO: t1230
Button: t6910
SB: t830
gonefshng: t716
Pre-flop: (6 players) gonefshng is BB with 8 2
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t420, 3 folds,
p.s. this is my 1st attempt at HH conversion, I'll get better |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 2087
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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Best play: fold.
A very distant second best: Stop-and-go. I can't see this working very often, though.
Surely, if the all-in range of these players is so high that there are several people all in more often than not, you can wait for a better hand than 82s to get it in with... |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2899
Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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| Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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F-f-f-Fold!!!!!
sb, then another round. You can push your button if it folds to you or wait for a pair or ace to get it in with. If you don't get a hand push ATC UTG. |
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dcdoorknob
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 1128
Location: Mississippi
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| Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, letting the blinds pass still leaves you with ~5bbs, which isn't a great spot obviously, but its still enough not to go kamikaze with 82 here. |
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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 546
Location: dariver
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| Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: |
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I went outside the box for this one, the play at the table had a lot to do with it
My thought process here was:
My m=4 at start of hand
I have a bad starting hand
I have 120 in the pot, with 516 behind
sb is next, with blinds going up.
I will have an m of about 2 if I fold the sb
I will have to dbl twice if I fold, just to be able to play
This may be my only chance to isolate
I'm guessing his range to be, any two QJ or better, 22-77(anything better had been a shove)
I'm worried about a pair
I'm pretty sure I'm live
If I fold, I have small chance of cashing
If I can hit 40%, my odds of cashing are good
Stop and go won't work.
Timebank is running out.
Shove!
Last edited by gonefshng on Wed May 21, 2008 5:32 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 2087
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 3:42 pm Post subject: |
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| gonefshng wrote: |
| Stop and go won't work. |
A stop and go probably won't work. But I don't see how a shove is going to be better than a stop and go? |
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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 546
Location: dariver
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| Posted: Wed May 21, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
| gonefshng wrote: |
| Stop and go won't work. |
A stop and go probably won't work. But I don't see how a shove is going to be better than a stop and go? |
My thoughts were in essence, I have a 40% chance of winning this hand and feel I will cash if I do
I have less than a 40% chance of cashing if i fold. |
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feihua
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 2075
Location: Asakura, Fukuoka Japan
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| Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 6:26 am Post subject: |
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| Lee Jones!! |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 2087
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: |
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| gonefshng wrote: |
My thoughts were in essence, I have a 40% chance of winning this hand and feel I will cash if I do
I have less than a 40% chance of cashing if i fold. |
Fair enough, although I don't agree with you. I can't imagine you really have a 40% change against your opponent's range. First of all, the range you put him on doesn't include 88+ because you think he would shove with that, which seems silly to me. But even against the range you came up with, you are only 35% to win. I also don't think you are worse than that to cash if you fold.
Regardless, I still fail to see why it is better to shove than try a stop-and-go. At least if you are going to get it all in, get it all in with the most fold equity possible. |
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skeeter1114
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 2496
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| Posted: Thu May 22, 2008 10:22 am Post subject: |
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FWIW, I was the button in this particular hand.
I understand what Gone is thinking. Being at this table, the original raiser had been a little loose, so his starting range could be anything. I believe gone is thinking that 8-2 has a good chance of being live as there is a good chance the raiser has a big ace or face cards. If she thinks she is live, then it is not the worst play in the world.
That being said, I did not like the option of shoving here. I know this represents a big portion of her stack, but feel she can at least find a better hand to push. The only thing to potentially save her against a dominating hand would be a flush. There are no straight possibilities and this hand has almost 0 showdown value. Another argument I would make is that if she thinks most people are that loose, that's another reason to wait for a king, ace, connecting cards, or pair. I think there are better spots to get your chips in with than 2-8, suited or not. |
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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 546
Location: dariver
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| Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
| gonefshng wrote: |
My thoughts were in essence, I have a 40% chance of winning this hand and feel I will cash if I do
I have less than a 40% chance of cashing if i fold. |
Fair enough, although I don't agree with you. I can't imagine you really have a 40% change against your opponent's range. First of all, the range you put him on doesn't include 88+ because you think he would shove with that, which seems silly to me. But even against the range you came up with, you are only 35% to win. I also don't think you are worse than that to cash if you fold.
Regardless, I still fail to see why it is better to shove than try a stop-and-go. At least if you are going to get it all in, get it all in with the most fold equity possible. |
Fair enough, back at you. As stated before my thoughts, were outside the box here. My thoughts are not always 100% correct, mathmatically or subjectively. I tend to round numbers quickly, with a 10 or 15 sec time bank.
More than anything, I think this was situational and not a play I recommend a high percentage of the time, or can ever remember using. That's why I posted it.
I have no idea how to calculate odds of cashing in the scenario, I fold. I don't like having an m of 2 or below if I can help it, before i make a move.
I had no reason to play scared, at the stakes and was willing to gamble.
I may have just described a donk, but it was a well thought out better class of donk.................................... huh? |
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dcdoorknob
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 1128
Location: Mississippi
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| Posted: Fri May 23, 2008 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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I found it interesting in reading Colin Moshman's book recently that he picks out the 'point of no return' (where you are just willing to get it in with any 2 to avoid literally blinding out) at 3BBs. More than that and you are obviously actively looking to push in any reasonable spot, but he doesn't recommend ignoring all factors and just pushing unless you are about to go under 3BBs.
And just a thought with your rough math there, nilgiri points out that you aren't 40% to win, but you also aren't cashing 100% even if you double, I have a hard time seeing it over 75%. All in all folding is still the best option imo. |
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