Online Poker Forum - Pot Odds Help: Explain what Andy Bloch is saying

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Fat Muttony
Pair

Joined: 30 Nov 2008
Posts: 28

Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:02 pm Post subject: Pot Odds Help: Explain what Andy Bloch is saying

I have always been weak with pot odds, I find that most discussions of odds have a lot of American English words in them (like "dog") which I don't fully comprehend. So, to get better at it, I've been reading about Pot Odds and such.

Recently in an article on FTP by Andy Bloch (http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/tip-email-150-deposit?utm_id=150) he says the following:

Quote:

That brings me to the next question: how much is he betting? If your opponent's all-in bet is worth half the pot or less, I think you have to call with any two over-cards so long as you think they're still live. Over-cards give you six potential outs to the board, meaning that you're only about a 3-1 dog against top pair if you have no straight or flush draw possibilities. Your over-cards may even be ahead if you think your opponent is pushing all-in on his own draw or is bluffing at the pot.

From my rudimentary knowledge of pot odds, 6 outs for me from the remaining 47 cards, means approximately 8-1 odds against making my hand. And if the opponent is betting 1.5 x POT, then my pot odds are 1.5-1. So how does that make it "about a 3-1 dog against top pair if you have no straight or flush draw possibilities"?

Please help.

rich99cook
Full House

Joined: 26 Sep 2009
Posts: 205
Location: Essex, UK

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:27 am Post subject:

If your opponent is betting half the pot, you're getting 4:1 on your money... If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

Riddim
Moderator

Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 9910
Location: Sweden

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:49 am Post subject:

rich99cook wrote:

If your opponent is betting half the pot, you're getting 4:1 on your money...

If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

Wow I don't even know whether this is supposed to make sense or not.

OP,

There are two cards to come, it's not 6/47. Also, he said half pot or less, not 1.5x pot or less, so we'd be getting at least 3:1.

rich99cook
Full House

Joined: 26 Sep 2009
Posts: 205
Location: Essex, UK

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:58 am Post subject:

I guess my knowledge of pot odds is flawed too then

Fat Muttony
Pair

Joined: 30 Nov 2008
Posts: 28

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 4:00 pm Post subject:

Riddim wrote:

There are two cards to come, it's not 6/47. Also, he said half pot or less, not 1.5x pot or less, so we'd be getting at least 3:1.

So, with 2 cards to come, how do I calculate my pot odds?

templar rage
Royal Flush

Joined: 30 Dec 2008
Posts: 771
Location: Rhode Island

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:24 pm Post subject:

rich99cook wrote:

If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

W00t for 1st ever sig quote.

OP, you can't technically calculate pot odds over multiple streets. Pot odds are strictly related to the situation at hand (i.e. the current decision). Implied odds take into account later streets, but are more complicated and based on non-concrete ideas such as opponent's ranges, tendencies, etc.

Flying_Kiwi
Bird of Mystery

Joined: 03 Sep 2006
Posts: 8241
Location: Eating an apple on the golf course in the sunshine

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 9:39 pm Post subject:

Math is idiotic.

Riddim
Moderator

Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 9910
Location: Sweden

Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2009 11:32 pm Post subject:

templar rage wrote:

rich99cook wrote:

If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

You did look at the hand in the OP, right?

Fat Muttony wrote:

Riddim wrote:

There are two cards to come, it's not 6/47. Also, he said half pot or less, not 1.5x pot or less, so we'd be getting at least 3:1.

So, with 2 cards to come, how do I calculate my pot odds?

I use PokerStove.

Pete D
Pistol Pete

Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 1716
Location: California

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:02 am Post subject:

Riddim wrote:

Fat Muttony wrote:

Riddim wrote:

There are two cards to come, it's not 6/47. Also, he said half pot or less, not 1.5x pot or less, so we'd be getting at least 3:1.

So, with 2 cards to come, how do I calculate my pot odds?

I use PokerStove.

With 2 cards to come, you can multiply your outs by 4 to give you an approximation... 6 x 4 ~24%.

http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/tips/the-2-4-rule-for-odds.htm

Last edited by Pete D on Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:14 am; edited 1 time in total

Pete D
Pistol Pete

Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 1716
Location: California

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:05 am Post subject: Re: Pot Odds Help: Explain what Andy Bloch is saying

Fat Muttony wrote:

I have always been weak with pot odds, I find that most discussions of odds have a lot of American English words in them (like "dog") which I don't fully comprehend.

When someone says you're a 3 to 1 "dog", it means your opponent will win three times for each time you win. In other words, your chance to win is 25% and his chance to win is 75%.

"Dog" is simply slang for underdog... if you're the underdog, then your opponent is the favorite.

Underdog has < 50% chance to win.
Favorite has > 50% chance to win.

In Andy's example, let's say you have AK, the pot has $1800 in it and the flop is 853 rainbow. If your opponent goes all-in for $600 more w/ no others in the hand, your call should be nearly automatic because you're now risking $600 to win $2400 (his final $600 plus the $1800 already in the pot).

I say automatic (Andy said "you have to call") because you're getting 4 to 1 odds, but you're only (assumed to be) a 3 to 1 dog.

Think of it this way... if this hand was run 4 times, you'd get this result (on average):
Lose $600
Lose $600
Lose $600
Win $2400

Your net result is +$600.

Now let's say, your opponent went all-in for $1800 more (the full amount of the pot), you're now getting 2 to 1 odds (risking $1800 to win $3600)... but you will still lose 3 out of 4 times (that has not changed).

Again, think of this hand being run 4 times:
Lose $1800
Lose $1800
Lose $1800
Win $3600

Your net result is -$1800.

templar rage
Royal Flush

Joined: 30 Dec 2008
Posts: 771
Location: Rhode Island

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:13 am Post subject:

Riddim wrote:

templar rage wrote:

rich99cook wrote:

If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

You did look at the hand in the OP, right?

I was responding to a post OP made further down asking how to calculate pot odds with 2 cards to come. I always thought pot odds were strictly related to the current decision. Unless he was asking how to calculate odds of winning, in which case there is apparent ambiguity in his phrasing.

templar rage
Royal Flush

Joined: 30 Dec 2008
Posts: 771
Location: Rhode Island

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:14 am Post subject:

[quote="templar rage"]

Riddim wrote:

templar rage wrote:

rich99cook wrote:

If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

You did look at the hand in the OP, right?

rich99cook
Full House

Joined: 26 Sep 2009
Posts: 205
Location: Essex, UK

Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2009 12:44 pm Post subject:

templar rage wrote:

rich99cook wrote:

If you have 8:1 odds against making your hand, it makes you a 2:1 underdog

Obviously I had too much beer that night Shocked

Fat Muttony
Pair

Joined: 30 Nov 2008
Posts: 28

Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 11:03 am Post subject: Re: Pot Odds Help: Explain what Andy Bloch is saying

Pete D wrote:

When someone says you're a 3 to 1 "dog", it means your opponent will win three times for each time you win. In other words, your chance to win is 25% and his chance to win is 75%.

Thank you Pete D. You explained it beautifully.

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