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GuitarDean · Full House Joined: 02 May 2006 Posts: 169 Location: Canada

Okay I'm not just talking about this forum specifically, but in general people tend to think the word "lucky" in poker is synonymous to "bad play." Yes, bad plays can get lucky, but no, not every miracle card means that the lucky player made a bad play.

Just recently I won a tournament by cracking my opponent's A-A with 7-4 offsuit. I was very lucky that he slowplayed it until the turn, which made me a very deceptive 7-high straight; but did I do anything wrong in the hand? No. What else could I have done other than the check along with my gutshot straight draw if he offers me a free card?

Conversely, is slowplaying A-A on a board that showed no obvious draws a bad play when heads-up? Of course there are many ways to play A-A, but he didn't do anything terribly wrong and was simply unlucky to have them cracked. Neither of us made bad plays on this hand, but luck was on my side to win the tournament for me.

Another example: you are very very lucky to have 8-9 on a board of 10-8-8-K-9 when your opponent holds 8-A. You rivered a three-outer, but was the re-raise on the flop a bad play on your part? Maybe, depending on the exact situation and the players involved, but usually flopped trips is a hand worth pushing. So you got lucky against A-8, but did that mean you made a donkey play with your 8-9? Not necessarily.

One last example: tells. HH do not take into account tells, betting patterns that you may have picked up, the specific tendencies of your opponent, whether he may be playing on scared money or whatnot, etc etc etc. Your opponent who reraised you with 7-2 was not playing his cards, he was playing by his read of you. So he gets lucky and flops 2-pair and cracks your aces; yes he made a bad read of your pre-flop raise, but does this necessarily make him a donkey?

Mistakes happen; pros make mistakes all the time. I just watched a rerun of an old WPT episode and Doyle Brunson made a bad read and moved all-in with A-8 (after it missed the flop completely) against Phil Hellmuth who slowplayed his flopped top pair. An ace hit the river. Yes Brunson made a bad read and made a mistake, but he got lucky and doubled up on a 3-outer. You try calling Brunson a donkey based on this one hand.

Everyone gets lucky some of the time. We all understand your frustrations of losing as a 9-1 favourite, but put yourself in your opponent's shoes and consider what he may be thinking as he made his mistake; don't judge an opponent's entire poker ability based on one hand history, and don't be too quick to associate a lucky mistake with complete "donkeyness."

I'm not saying don't complain about your rotten luck; by all means get your frustration out. But keep in mind your own past mistakes and your own lucky breaks, and don't automatically call people donkeys for their lucky mistakes against you.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8177 Location: Sweden

Nice post.

mathman1115 · Posted: Wed Jun 28, 2006 6:41 pm Post subject:

You make some really good points Guitar. People forget that although AA completely dominates every hand, if you give cheap or free cards to people, their pot odds are astronimical.
When AA gets busted, regardless of how the hand plays out, it is an unlucky situation. I hate it as much as the next person. In fact, it aggravates me and makes me steam just like anyone else. But the fact is, if i knew my opponnents had AA at anytime i would stay in the hand almost every time, because if you do hit that miracle flop, you will get paid off and the odds will always be there.
AA is not a 100 percent favorite over any hand, and for as many hands that are dealt on this site or any other per day, it shouldn't be surpirising that it gets outdrawn as often as it does

Pokit2s · Message Board Junkie Joined: 22 Jun 2005 Posts: 1261

Good post. A big part of being good is knowing just how likely you are to get "lucky" and make the right decision to gamble or not based on the pot. Poker is a skill game but it is most definately gambling.

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