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entilt Three of a Kind
Joined: 15 Jun 2008 Posts: 77
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Posted: Sat Sep 13, 2008 8:26 am Post subject: Folding a set... |
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Do you think this was a good laydown? (Don't have the hand history as I didn't think to get it at the time & it's buried in hundreds of hands now). I remember most of the hand but not all of it.
The table had (as is common @ low stakes) seen very few preflop raises and a lot of limping. No real read on opponent.
10/25c game. My cards: 55A3 double suited, $12 in stack.
Preflop:
Two limpers. Villain raises to 75c, I call in BB, rest of table folds. Pot $2.10
Flop: AK5 rainbow.
Villain bets $1.10, I raise the pot ($3.20 to go for villain), villain reraises the pot, putting me practically all-in.
At the time I put the opponent on (most likely) KKxx due to the preflop raise (AAxx also possible but less likely as I hold one ace). Thinking about it later, they could also have had two pair or a pair and a draw (e.g. something like AJTT).
Anyway I laid down the bottom set, thinking I was in a set-over-set situation. Would you have done the same? |
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keegs22 Royal Flush
Joined: 03 Apr 2008 Posts: 579
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Posted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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I think more times than not you are ahead here and it is much more likely he has AKxx. However, you mentioning very few preflop raises does make a little more concerned we could be already beat. He doesn't have AA here, KK maybe but not nearly as likely as AKxx. I'd get it in on that flop.
PS. under options on main lobby go to 'hand histories...' check save hand history  |
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entilt Three of a Kind
Joined: 15 Jun 2008 Posts: 77
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Posted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:21 am Post subject: |
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| keegs22 wrote: |
I think more times than not you are ahead here and it is much more likely he has AKxx. However, you mentioning very few preflop raises does make a little more concerned we could be already beat. He doesn't have AA here, KK maybe but not nearly as likely as AKxx. I'd get it in on that flop.
PS. under options on main lobby go to 'hand histories...' check save hand history  |
Thanks for the response. I've thought about this hand a fair bit since, and I still stay pretty much convinced that they had the KK (or less likely the AA) due to the preflop raise on a table where there was only one PF raise (not counting ones I made) every 8 to 10 hands. I think I'm 50% sure he had KK, 20% AA, 20% an ace and/or king with a solid draw, and 10% a donk bluff with SFA. (Had the flop been anything at all other than AK5, say had it been AT5, I'd have been all-in, as I'd be less likely to attribute TTxx to a PF raiser on that table).
Anyway, as far as results go, I'll never know. |
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junkbutton Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Feb 2006 Posts: 4049 Location: Gutterrock, NY
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Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2008 7:37 am Post subject: |
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| I've found in low stakes PLO that aggressive play after the flop pretty much means monster. Against an unknown, I'd say you made a good laydown. |
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Richard Ashby High Card
Joined: 29 Sep 2008 Posts: 2
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Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: |
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I think on this occasion you made the wrong decision..
Once you called the pre-flop raise and check raised the flop I think you are now committed to this hand. You have just invested to much of your $12 stack to fold at this stage with such a strong hand.
If you really were convinced the raiser had you beat you could have asked the question and bet out on the flop and then perhaps folded to a re-raise. However you would have to be very confident of your read, (which by the tone of your post is not the case), to make this play.
In general in my experience of online omaha unless there has been no pre flop action and stack sizes are deep it is very difficult to fold even bottom set as too often you will be against top two or a pair and the nut flush draw for example. My advice would be if your likely to get scared off a pot when you flop a set of fives then avoid playing small pairs to a pre flop raise.
Hope this helps and good luck.
Richard Ashby |
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bottlecapthief Kleptomaniac
Joined: 10 Oct 2005 Posts: 2951 Location: Location Location: Location
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Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| junkbutton wrote: |
| I've found in low stakes PLO that aggressive play after the flop pretty much means monster. Against an unknown, I'd say you made a good laydown. |
Hi JB, I've missed you. |
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Lucky_Bub Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Dec 2006 Posts: 1711 Location: Here, There and Everywhere
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Posted: Mon Sep 29, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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OMG... Welcome to the forum, Richard.
And welcome back, JB. |
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entilt Three of a Kind
Joined: 15 Jun 2008 Posts: 77
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Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2008 2:12 am Post subject: |
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| Richard Ashby wrote: |
I think on this occasion you made the wrong decision..
Once you called the pre-flop raise and check raised the flop I think you are now committed to this hand. You have just invested to much of your $12 stack to fold at this stage with such a strong hand.
If you really were convinced the raiser had you beat you could have asked the question and bet out on the flop and then perhaps folded to a re-raise. However you would have to be very confident of your read, (which by the tone of your post is not the case), to make this play.
In general in my experience of online omaha unless there has been no pre flop action and stack sizes are deep it is very difficult to fold even bottom set as too often you will be against top two or a pair and the nut flush draw for example. My advice would be if your likely to get scared off a pot when you flop a set of fives then avoid playing small pairs to a pre flop raise.
Hope this helps and good luck.
Richard Ashby |
My general approach to hands like 55xx facing a PF raise is to call if I can call cheaply (less than 5-7% of my stack), and hope to hit a set without an Ace or King on the board, as in my experience of 5-10c and 10-25c PLO games, a PF raise means AAxx 50% of the time, KKxx 30% of the time, QQxx about 10% and other hands 10% of the time. (I raise more hands than these, however).
If K5x hit, I was probably trying to get it all-in. If A5x hit, I'm more nervous, but with both nightmare cards on the board, the only likely holding I can beat (IMO) is QQxx with a straight draw (say something like QQ3T).
I actually lost another buyin set-over-set last night in a very similar situation (I had 55 and two other cards, flop Kk9d5h, turn 9h, I bet the pot hoping opp made the nut flush and am pot committed, get reraised all in and call, opponent shows down KKxx). This was also raised PF, but I thought AAxx was still a likely holding due to the typical weak play at low limit tables. |
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xx monster xx High Card
Joined: 15 Aug 2007 Posts: 4
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Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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If I had a set of aces or kings on that rainbow flop and I bet and got raised as he did, I would "think" for a bit and then smooth call your reraise. Then I'd "think" again, and finally check the turn hoping to checkraise, and bet the river regardless.
Why does he want to reraise you out of the pot when the only thing he should possibly be scared of is the straight draw which has only 9 outs if you had JQTx (which is unlikely from his perspective).
If he had that set, the only hand that threatens him is JQTx. And against that one hand, he is still a 65% favorite. He wanted you to fold, so maybe you should have called.
Or maybe he read you for a set and wanted your chips and you made a good fold. |
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drtre1987 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2121
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Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2008 12:45 am Post subject: |
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Set mining sucks in PLO. I would definately not set mine 55xx. I don't mind this call at low stakes though since you have a suited ace against straight forward players. But if you are purely planning on the set value of a 55xx hand, then you are making a huge mistake.
In hold'em, you can do this because people will be stacking off on a J94 with two pair, an overpair, top pair, and a draw. In hold'em, the draw is likely to be only around a 35% favorite (unless its some monster OESD flush draw). In PLO, people will not get it in as often with two pair and will rarely ever stack off any overpair/top pair. Also, the draws tend to have a ton more equity. You can easily be up against flush and straight draw combos that are nearly flipping or are a favorite. So your equity against their range is much much worse when you do hit your set. And on a lot of boards where you hit your set, you only flop a drawing hand where there is a flush or straight possible on the board. In these spots, you lose action by all worse hands. |
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bluestone10 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 01 Dec 2006 Posts: 1323 Location: The Southern (and a little western) USA
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Posted: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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| ship it. he's drawing to straight or has top 2. get it in |
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