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AlexScottUK · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:08 am Post subject: A tough turn decision

$5/$10 No Limit Hold'em from last night, nine handed. I have $1010 in chips, and probably have a fairly tight image.

UTG folds and CallingMachine1 ($1566.70 in chips) raises to $30 from second position. I don't know a lot about him except that he overplays his big pairs. He has $1567 in chips because he tried to lose them all earlier with pocket kings, but rivered a full house to beat his opponent's obvious flush.

Its folded to DJ820 ($449 in chips) in middle position who calls (not much info on this player). I call from the button with J-10 of clubs, and the big blind ($1317 in chips) also calls.

As far as I'm concerned, this is about the perfect situation for J-10s. I'm in a multiway pot with the best possible position, and there's at least one player in the pot who I know overplays good starting hands and so is likely to pay me off. My implied odds are massive.

There's $125 in the pot and we see the flop which is Jd - 10d - 4c.

The big blind checks, CallingMachine1 bets $75, DJ820 calls, and I raise to $325. Its a small raise relative to the pot, but it represents a decent proportion of DJ820's stack. What I'm hoping will happen is that CallingMachine1 will fold and I'll end up all-in against the short stack, although I'm prepared for other eventualities.

Actually, CallingMachine1 calls my raise after the blind folds, and then DJ820 moves all-in for $94 more. I call and so does CallingMachine1.

There's $1382 in the main pot and the turn comes Ks for a board of J-10-4-K.

CallingMachine1 sets me in for $561. I'm getting about 3.5 to 1 on the call.

Should I call or fold?

FatStacks06 · Royal Flush Joined: 26 Jan 2006 Posts: 736

Theres not many hands that he has that you can beat. He would have to have AA, QQ, 99, AK or AJ (all hands that he would open for in EP with a raise) for you to be ahead here. You hit a fat 2 pair on the flop though, but with so many draws out and him betting out, he most likely isn't on one, and he thinks you are. If I had to guess though, I would still say he is on AA or AK and is hoping that you are holding something like AJ. I would have to make the call, you're getting great odds and I wouldn't put him on a straight or trips because he just called your raise on the flop. Tough decision here though.

comin4you · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:41 pm Post subject:

I don't come anywhere near to playing on this level, but I enjoy a challenge. This does indeed seem like a very tough decision. You keep saying that CallingMachine overplays his high pairs, so KK is a possibility, and the only hand that has you drawing completely dead (JJ does too, but is much less likely). I wouldn't put QQ past him since he would have turned and up-down straight draw, but I doubt he would call such a raise on the flop with QQ. You also have to be concerned with what DJ820 is holding. He could be on some sort of draw, or possibly KJ which has you drawing to a 10 only for the main pot. Considering the play I'd put him on a draw. I think you're good in this spot and should call. But what do I know, that's why I'm playing .05/.10 and not 5/10. I'm looking forward to seeing what others think.

aztecgator · Two Pair Joined: 28 Jul 2005 Posts: 70

First...

1. You have almost 45% of your money in the pot already
2. The pot is big

These two alone strongly suggest a call on your part.

3. You are getting 3.5 to 1 on your money if you call and so unless you strongly believe you are beat (ie you believe there is greater than a 78% chance you are beaten), the math dictates a call regardless of what you have already put into the pot.

With that said, if I am you I am putting DJ820 on a nut flush draw, but not with AK or AQ diamonds since I would think he would move all in after callingmachine1 leads out on the flop. DJ820 probably has A9 or A8 diamonds.

I don't think callingmachine1 has AA, KK or QQ since, based on your read of him, he probably would have pushed back hard on the flop and reraised you all in thinking his overpair was good unless he felt you flopped a set or top two pair, which would be an incredible read on his part. Its hard to believe that he would call your raise on the flop with AK or AQ. However, after your raise, there is $600 in the pot and he needs to call $250. So he is getting 2.4 to 1 on his money AND if he believes DJ820 will call, then he is getting 3.4 to 1 on his money. Also, if he does hit his gutshot on the turn he probably figures to get paid off by both of you so his implied odds are good. It would certainly be a gamble on his part to just call (probably would be better to just move in instead of calling) but I can't rule it out. A hand like KJ is possible if you think he would raise with that hand preflop from early position. QJ might also be possible, but I doubt it very much.

So, I would put him on either AK, AQ, KJ or "other" (e.g., AA, KK, QQ, QJ etc) and assign probabilities of 35%, 35%, 20% and 10%, respectively. Since at least 35% of the time you make the call you would be ahead and more than likely win and because you are getting 3.5 to 1 on your money, again, the decision I would have reached would be to call.

GxHxOxSxT · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 2:21 pm Post subject:

Wow, that is a really tough one because if you are down at this point, you're really low on outs (2 or 4) and if you're up at this point he could still possibly still have 6, 9, even 10 outs. When I get myself into situations like this I usually go with my very first gut instinct (that feeling you get before you begin to think about it). From your description of the situation I'd call.

Ghost

AlexScottUK · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:34 pm Post subject:

Wow guys, this is excellent stuff and has the makings of a legendary post. aztecgator, I'm particularly impressed with your analysis of the hand - but I'd be willing to bet most of my bankroll that you've read Harrington on Hold'em, Volume 2!

goodtime · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 6:54 pm Post subject:

I don't have really great analaysis here, but here I go. I would probably put him all in at this point. He could very well be putting all that money with AK or something like QK where you're still ahead. I highly doubt he'd have AQ in this situation so you can pretty much rule that out. I don't see him playing 44,JJ,TT like this, espescially 44. My guess is he has AA and hes hoping you have a hand like AK and will call, or he possibly has AK hoping to get you out and go head to head with the other players hand, where he has a lot of better odds to win. I would put all of your chips in the pot, even if you lose this on a great hand, that shouldnt really KILL your bankroll if you have the correct bankroll to play $5 $10 NL holdem. I've come to see also that a lot of the higher stakes players $5 $10 players mostly seem to be not that good of players. Possibly business owners or rich folk looking to play a good game of holdem. Besides the regulars like professor plum and obviousley professional players. I would love to get all my money in this pot here, because even if you lose the main pot its a very juicy side pot here. POST THE OUTCOME!!!

AlexScottUK · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 7:14 pm Post subject: Re:

deadmoney314 · Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2006 10:41 pm Post subject: ..

First off, this is by far the best HH analysis thread i've seen here and kudos to aztecgator for such a thoughtful analysis. Secondly, I have a feeling that you called this and were either ahead or spiked a full house on the river to scoop the pot. The latter result is what you were trying to avoid if you could somehow reason that you were far enough behind that the decision was bad. That being said, I agree with aztecgator on the pocket pairs not being likely.

AA thru 10's (include 4's) would make him believe (disregarding an amazing read) that he would be ahead on the flop and then also want to protect against such a draw heavy board. Betting less than the size of the pot multiway would be for the most part unrealistic. Its even more unrealistic that he would not put you all-in when you raised on the flop--weirder things do happen but again I side with aztecgator. The good news is that there is a high probability that you were ahead on the flop although the short stack presents a problem as he is likely to have a hand that can improve on you and take a good portion of the pot whether you continue to beat callingstation.

This leaves (% are approx with you first/him second)
AK 80/20 Highly believable especially if both Diamond

AQ 13/87 I'm not sure why people are discounting him having this given the play
AJ 86/14 Unlikely considering leading out on the turn
A10 86/14 Same as AJ
KQ 66/33 Very believable
kj 5/95 Very believable
k10 5/95 Unlikely given the preflop raise and subsequent flop action
qj 73/27 Believable
q10 73/27 Unlikely
q9 13/87 Can't see this one
X Diamond

X

80/20 where the most likely of those would be
K Diamond

X

A

4

Again, can't see this one even played

Here's where its fuzzy and everyone will have their own opinion, my 2 cents are:
AK 80/20 35% (more like 60/40 for A Diamond

K

but good enough for me)
AQ 13/87 25%
KJ 5/95 25%
KQ 66/33 - QJ 73/27 - other hands 15%

So at first glance from my figures, this is a call given the odds and I seriously hope he turned over AK only to lose and you at least got a large portion of the pot if the other all-in guy was beat as well. The way it was bet though I have a feeling he caught you on the turn in which case I still think you were justified to call and were lucky to river him if so. Good thread Smile

Hotstick · Pair Joined: 05 Apr 2006 Posts: 21

There has been sooo much greast input here, I'll just make it short and sweet. CALL. You have to.

And for the love of God man, please finish this story... the suspense is killing me.

deadmoney314 · Posted: Fri Apr 07, 2006 12:01 am Post subject: Re: ..

AlexScottUK · Posted: Sun Apr 09, 2006 5:04 pm Post subject:

Okay.

I take one look at the size of the pot and call instantly.

We turn the cards over...

CallingMachine1 has the A-Q of diamonds and has the nut straight with the nut flush draw. Oh dear - very bad! Well done if you thought this was one of his possible holdings. I wasn't convinced that he'd call so much money with a draw... usually people either raise or fold with these kinds of hands. However with a third player in the pot, calling is definitely better than raising because you don't want to eliminate that player. He's living up to his name, anyway.

DJ820 had the 9-8 of a diamonds for an open-ended straight flush draw (yikes!). The river is the seven of diamonds, giving him a straight flush!

So, I go broke, CallingMachine1 loses a third of his stack (because he wins the side pot against me), and DJ820 triples up.

Clearly, calling the turn given what my opponents held was a huge mistake. I put in about half my stack as a slight favourite, and the rest as a huge underdog. I think the key is really that CallingMachine is betting into an empty side pot, so he's definitely not bluffing. Of all the hands he would play this way (and I believe that does include pocket aces), he might even be statistically more likely to have a hand that I can't beat than one I can.

I think the right play is to fold the turn despite the great pot odds, and I'm disappointed that I rushed the decision and came to the wrong conclusion. However, I find it really reassuring that nearly every person on every forum I've posted this on would call, and I've seen some very convincing reasons why I should in fact call. I'm trying not to be too results-oriented, but I think there is some key information in this hand that I just didn't make use of, and which suggests folding.

Cheers for your analysis guys.

GripHoldOn · Posted: Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:00 pm Post subject:

I'm sorry I didn't get to this Alex, it was an interesting hand. I think that while you probably don't have the best hand now, you're in a ridiculously tough spot, because your raise on the flop was almost undoubtedly made while you had the best of it, but for some reason, CallingMachine1 flat calls your raise. Now a K comes off and he sets YOU all-in, and now you probably DON'T have the best hand. The problem is, now you're getting great odds.

Your odds aren't exactly 3.5-1, they're actually a little better. Your odds WOULD be 3.5 - 1 if you won the entire pot by beating both of them, and you won nothing if you didn't beat both of them. There's another option though, and you actually are going to win some of this pot if you merely finish ahead of CallingMachine1. You're getting 1-1 in the side pot, and so in order to profit from the sidepot, you're going to have to beat CallingMachine1 over half of the time. I don't think your JT can beat CallingMachine1 half of the time, and if this were the only condition, folding would certainly be correct. However, by calling, we also get to enter a three-way freeroll for $1382. I don't think that you can get away from this hand, Alex, given these odds. You probably don't have the best hand right now, but CallingMachine1 could have AK, and you still could have four pure outs. It's a miserable situation, but I think that you played it alright.

AlexScottUK · Posted: Sun Apr 09, 2006 6:07 pm Post subject: Re:

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