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Dierwolf2000
Pair
Joined: 01 Jul 2007
Posts: 32
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 Posted: Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:18 am Post subject: need a stats expert |
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| now i don't believe this site or any other is rigged, but i notice a large majority of the time when i flop a set or trips in O8 there's a flush draw on the board. what are the odds of this? |
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Dashir
Pair
Joined: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 47
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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Cappelletti gives the following rough estimates of percentage of winning high hands with between 4 and ten players seeing the flop (computer generated):
straights: 24-27%
flushes: 18-22%
full house: 20-36% (which sounds really high to me)
He says, "In real life, flushes seem to win slightly more often then 20% of the time, perhaps because some hands that might win with a full house fold before the showdown." Straights and flushes win almost half the hands.
That of course, doesn't take into account your holdings. Just random deals.
Edit - just realized I didn't actually answer your question... but shouldn't two of one suit happen about 60% of the time? (1/4 + 1/2*3/4). |
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crapshot1
Two Pair
Joined: 06 Oct 2007
Posts: 71
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| Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| 2:1 on flop with 2 cards to come |
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Dierwolf2000
Pair
Joined: 01 Jul 2007
Posts: 32
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| Posted: Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: |
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| been a while, but thanks guys. both of your math seems logical, and paying attention to my own hands seen does seem to bear it out, |
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nimbus
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 1312
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 1:09 am Post subject: Re: need a stats expert |
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| Dierwolf2000 wrote: |
| now i don't believe this site or any other is rigged, but i notice a large majority of the time when i flop a set or trips in O8 there's a flush draw on the board. what are the odds of this? |
I take this to mean exactly 2 of the 3 cards are the same suit.
The easiest way to figure this is to break down the flops.
Flop all 3 different suits is 1014/2550 ~ 40%
Flop all same suit is 132/2550 ~ 5%
Therefore a board with 2 of the same suit is ~ 55%
Note that these numbers are independent of your hole cards. |
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Dierwolf2000
Pair
Joined: 01 Jul 2007
Posts: 32
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| Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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| again, been a while, but thank you, that too seems logical. i am not a "math player" though i am increasingly paying attention to these sorts of draw ratios. |
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