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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 374
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 Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject: Breaking a cycle? |
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And my loss streak continues into Sunday... first, an example, before I name the issue at hand.
The guy whiffs the flop and it's obvious, so I reraise him. He should know his AK isn't good, yet he calls with the 2 overs...
Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
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Hero (UTG+1): $3.20
UTG+2: $3.65
MP1: $4.15
MP2: $17.05
CO: $12.50
BTN: $5.30
SB: $9.45
BB: $3.95
UTG: $1.85
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 7 folds
Flop: ($0.95) 2 7 J (2 Players)
UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, UTG calls $0.95 and is All-In
Turn: ($3.85) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($3.85) K (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $3.85 Pot ($0.35 Rake)
Hero showed 9 9 (two pair, Nines and Sevens) and LOST (-$1.85 NET)
UTG showed A K (two pair, Kings and Sevens) and WON $3.50 (+$1.65 NET)
It's not this particular hand, or even situation, that pisses me off. It's that this particular situation (or similar) has happened to me over and over again this weekend. I just seem to keep losing 75/25s, 66/33s, etc...I expect that to happen, but not this often. Variance is a ****, I guess.
The problem I'd like to address here:
I've been extremely unlucky this weekend, and it's tilting me. I've started playing weaker hands, and have become over-cautious. I find myself not c-betting when I should (case in point my bust in the MBJ to rick, who I let catch up and grab a flush on me), as well as folding hands I know are good, especially against the kinds of people I'm playing against.
Worst part of it is that I know I'll make all $50+ of it back, and then this will happen all over again. This is the third such low point in an oscillating cycle. I'll spend a few weeks building my roll up to nearly double its starting point and then it'll mostly disappear in a weekend. I've never actually gone broke, not even dipped below my roll's starting level (aside from the very beginning of its use, of course). It's just getting frustrating. I'll almost be rolled to move up to 25NL, and then I get one of these Hell Weekends. No/few cashes, struggles on the cash tables, etc.
I'm usually great at handling tilt, so it's driving me nuts as to what causes these blow ups. Does this situation sound familiar to anyone else? |
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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:09 pm Post subject: |
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And after spiking trips with second nut flush and straight draws on an omaha table, I get called all in by someone with ONLY the nut flush draw, and he hits it. I'm now down to even overall. I'm about ready to withdraw the rest and not touch this **** for a while...  |
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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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| FFS!!!! I win a $14 pot with AQ, and then the very next hand my AJ loses to a set of aces on an A 2 J board... |
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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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And then 2 **** hands later:
Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
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Hero (MP1): $7.25
MP2: $19
CO: $12.90
BTN: $9.85
SB: $2.30
BB: $9.20
UTG: $13.10
UTG+1: $3.90
Pre-Flop: J Q dealt to Hero (MP1)
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.40
Flop: ($1.40) J K 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $0.80, Hero raises to $1.60, SB calls $0.80 and is All-In
Turn: ($4.60) 8 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($4.60) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $4.60 Pot ($0.45 Rake)
Hero showed J Q (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$2.30 NET)
SB showed Q A (a straight, Ace high) and WON $4.15 (+$1.85 NET)
Like I said, I know I'm not that big a favorite in these types of hands, but having this **** happen over and over is driving me insane. |
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fluffywuffy
High Card
Joined: 24 Aug 2008
Posts: 7
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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| these guys are all so short stacked they almost have to call on flops. Stuff like this is gona happen at microlimits. The players are bad so they get in behind often and will go on runs where they catch way more than they should. It evens out and thats why you always get your money back and then some. The only problem with the micro limits is almost no one wins in the long run beacuse of the rake. |
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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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| fluffywuffy wrote: |
| The only problem with the micro limits is almost no one wins in the long run beacuse of the rake. |
A very good point, something I've thought about before.
I've thought about quitting cash games altogether and playing tournies (as I have...well, had...a decent ROI for those, until this weekend), as the rake isn't as big a factor. Something about splitting a pot and still losing 45 cents just irks me. 
On the other hand, as cash games are much easier to fit into the schedule than tournaments, I would like to not have to resort to the above. Thus, I've thought about just giving my roll an artificial bump. I'm not poor off, I have a great job, and play poker mostly for the challenge. In a little over an hour at work tomorrow I'll have made back the 12 buy-ins I lost this weekend. I could easily afford to deposit enough for 100NL, probably even 200NL, and not bat an eye. But as I said, I don't play for the money, I play for fun, which is why I've been grinding $160 (down to $155 now... ) up and down on the nickle/dime tables.
I just don't know which way would be the best way to go... |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8177
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:13 am Post subject: |
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| If you want vague threads like this to stay in the strat forums, keep the bad beat posts and random whining about how bad you run out of them. |
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fletch_smf
Royal Flush
Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 805
Location: Brisneyland
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:30 am Post subject: |
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| fluffywuffy wrote: |
| The only problem with the micro limits is almost no one wins in the long run beacuse of the rake. |
I don't see why that should make a difference. 10% is 10%
Buy in full stack. And if you notice the table is crazy loose, you need to tighten up accordingly. There's a reason QJ loses to AQ a majority of the time. And AJ will lose to AA the vast majority of the time. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8177
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 12:55 am Post subject: |
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| fletch_smf wrote: |
| fluffywuffy wrote: |
| The only problem with the micro limits is almost no one wins in the long run beacuse of the rake. |
I don't see why that should make a difference. 10% is 10% |
Yeah, but it's only 10% at 10NL. |
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fletch_smf
Royal Flush
Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 805
Location: Brisneyland
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 4:38 am Post subject: |
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Huh. So it is. That's what happens when you're not bank rolled to play higher limits. Well there's another reason to build the bank roll and skill level up.
And building it up playing micro limits is certainly possible. I've made $110 in the last 7 weeks playing micro limit tables. |
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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 374
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| Posted: Mon Aug 25, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| If you want vague threads like this to stay in the strat forums, keep the bad beat posts and random whining about how bad you run out of them. |
Fair enough. Go ahead and delete this, if you please, and I'll find a better way to phrase what I'm getting at later, now that it's a new day and I'm not steaming. |
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