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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6293
Location: the pale blue dot
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 Posted: Wed Aug 20, 2008 7:24 pm Post subject: 50NL TT in the SB |
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UTG - Readless
MP - 15/12/4.0(2630)
What's our flop play?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Converter Tool from (Format: 2+2 Forums)
saw flop|saw showdown
CO ($26.10)
Button ($47.70)
Hero ($54.60)
BB ($93.20)
UTG ($70.75)
MP ($50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with T , T .
UTG calls $0.50, MP raises to $2.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.
Flop: ($8) 4, 2 , 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2, MP raises to $8, Hero ? |
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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 3085
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:24 am Post subject: |
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| Ick, i hate these situations. MP seems pretty tight with those stats, i can't see him raising the flop that much on a scary board with two opponents with air. Against MP heads up on the flop its pretty close, but with UTG still in the hand, that's my decision to fold here. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 3:04 am Post subject: |
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| I might coldcall because it's a spot where thinking players raise air a ton even if they're tight, and villain's flop AF is pretty high. A coldcall also looks super strong and is probably going to make villain play pretty straightforward for the rest of the hand. I think just folding is fine too though and probably what I'd be inclined to do with no reads to avoid spewing on later streets. |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1561
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: |
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Looking at those stats I'm a wimp and probably fold  |
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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 3085
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| I might coldcall because it's a spot where thinking players raise air a ton even if they're tight, and villain's flop AF is pretty high. A coldcall also looks super strong and is probably going to make villain play pretty straightforward for the rest of the hand. I think just folding is fine too though and probably what I'd be inclined to do with no reads to avoid spewing on later streets. |
I thought about coldcalling, but i don't think so. If an A,5, 6, J, Q, or K hits the turn (assuming you even get to the turn and UTG doesn't 3bet), now what are you going to do? The problem with coldcalling is even if you have the best hand at this point it is still quite vulnerable to overcards. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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| The thing is that a coldcall looks so strong that we don't really have to worry much about getting bluffed on scarecards. As I said though, I think it's pretty close without a read and that folding is fine as well. |
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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 3085
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| The thing is that a coldcall looks so strong that we don't really have to worry much about getting bluffed on scarecards. As I said though, I think it's pretty close without a read and that folding is fine as well. |
I'm not worried about getting bluffed on a scarecard. I'm worried about the scarecard outdrawing me. The strength in cold calling may certainly get us a free showdown the rest of the way, but if i cold call i want to win the pot. I suppose a scare card could actually give us a bluffing opportunity, but i'm still afraid that i may not get to see a turncard if i cold call with UTG still to act. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, my bad. I forgot about him for a while because he's going to fold so often, but if we coldcall he'll still call often enough to have a significant impact on our EV. On the other hand though, at least he'll very often be a fairly big underdog when he does call. I don't know what you mean by "if I coldcall I want to win the pot" btw. Obviously we're going to see at least one more card since we just called. If we could magically stop the hand on the flop, it wouldn't be a very close decision. |
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mathman1115
Wizard of Odderation
Joined: 01 Sep 2005
Posts: 3085
Location: Land of the Fightin' Phillies
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| I don't know what you mean by "if I coldcall I want to win the pot" btw. |
LOL kind of a dumb choice of words there. I just mean that if i cold call, i'd like to have a free showdown the rest of the way as opposed to having to call large bets on the turn and/or river. But the disadvantage of getting that free showdown the rest of the way is we are still vulnerable to 4 overcards with two players in the hand. It's sort of a no win situation here. We're either giving up fold equity (by wanting that free showdown) or losing value (by not betting what could be the best hand) in addition to the fact we may be behind already. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah. All of that is what makes it close imo, and what makes me fold without any reads. We're rarely going to be vulnerable to 4 overcards though, but I get what you're saying. What makes me tempted to still call is that even a lot of nitty TAGs just auto-raise donkbets. |
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