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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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 Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:42 pm Post subject: |
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| spadebidder wrote: |
| The explanations all make sense. I need to figure out why I'm getting these simulation results. |
because your simulation is wrong
if you really want post the source code and ill see if i can find the bug |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 4397
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:35 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| spadebidder wrote: |
| The explanations all make sense. I need to figure out why I'm getting these simulation results. |
because your simulation is wrong
if you really want post the source code and ill see if i can find the bug |
If you're going to post code, either zip it up and host it somewhere, or put it between code tags like this:
| Code: |
| [code]Big copy and paste goes here[/code] |
Otherwise, the forum software will likely strip whitespace, tabs, and otherwise make a mess of what you've entered. |
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francois8
Full House
Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 158
Location: Conshohocken, PA
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| Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: |
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| Wayniac, nice post. I agree with you entirely and was going to attempt to explain the same way, but your math was shorter and more concise than I think I'd have managed. Nicely written. |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 2110
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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Did you write the simulation app yourself? If so, post the code and we can debug it. If not, tell us what the app is so we can go test it out.
Wayniac's post is a good explanation if you can slog through the math. If not, the simplified concept is this:
Yes, 16/50 times a card you want is going to be in someone else's hand,thus giving you a 0/34 (0%) chance of seeing it OTF.
However, 34/50 times that card will be in the 34 cards left, thus giving you a 3/34 chance of seeing it OTF, which is better than the 3/50 chance you would use if you count all cards as possible.
It turns out that when you do the math, the two possibilities -- 0/34 [16/50 times] and 3/34 [34/50 times] -- combine to give you 3/50, just like when we "ignore" the fact that some cards are in the players' hands and will not be dealt.
Also, although it happens to work out similarly, the 12% chance to flop one or both of the remaining cards is not from the formula 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48. I'll let someone else explain why. |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1561
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| Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| ZOMG HEAD EXPLOZION. |
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