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Wayniac
Forum Pro
Joined: 26 Mar 2008
Posts: 617
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 Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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I agree with mathman and cubbies. If you KNOW you are a clear favorite to win because your opponent is just straight up terrible, you can find a better spot than TP no kicker.
I say chip away, and wait until he's no longer a threat when he doubles before you push all in often. I've won many heads up matches this way. |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1561
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: |
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| drtre1987 wrote: |
| On 2+2, there was a hand where a guy in the WSOP Main Event called a pf raise w/ JTo and flopped the nut straight on something like KsQs9h and bet folded the flop to an all in raise. He tried to justify that he was up a flush draw and he was only a slight favorite and didn't want to gamble with his tournament life. I found that funny. |
Priceless. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: |
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| mathman1115 wrote: |
| ... he could be holding most any two cards. |
| cubbies760 wrote: |
| The villian's range on the TP no Kicker hand is unlimited ... |
Is this supposed to be a bad thing?
| Code: |
Board: 8c Qd 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.903% 80.87% 01.03% 865470 11043.00 { Qh7d }
Hand 1: 18.097% 17.07% 01.03% 182634 11043.00 { random }
---
Board: 8c Qd 3s 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.759% 83.29% 00.47% 37931 213.00 { Qh7d }
Hand 1: 16.241% 15.77% 00.47% 7183 213.00 { random }
---
Board: 8c Qd 3s 2h 3h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 82.828% 81.01% 01.82% 802 18.00 { Qh7d }
Hand 1: 17.172% 15.35% 01.82% 152 18.00 { random } |
| cubbies760 wrote: |
| IMO, I'm 98% to win this match if I'm patient, and willing to slowly chip away at him, vs. possible having 65-70% equity against him for alot of chips. |
IMO, you're delusional. You're way overestimating edges in HU SNGs and even more so the edges you'll have when straying this far from the most +EV strategy just to avoid losing. |
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live4freerolls
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Nov 2006
Posts: 2499
Location: Grindin
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:02 am Post subject: |
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| cubbies760 wrote: |
| IMO, I'm 98% to win this match if I'm patient, and willing to slowly chip away at him, vs. possible having 65-70% equity against him for alot of chips. |
I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be 98% to win a HU sng even if you could see the other persons cards. |
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cubbies760
Drawing Dead
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 7547
Location: Suburban Chicago
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| mathman1115 wrote: |
| ... he could be holding most any two cards. |
| cubbies760 wrote: |
| The villian's range on the TP no Kicker hand is unlimited ... |
Is this supposed to be a bad thing?
| Code: |
Board: 8c Qd 3s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.903% 80.87% 01.03% 865470 11043.00 { Qh7d }
Hand 1: 18.097% 17.07% 01.03% 182634 11043.00 { random }
---
Board: 8c Qd 3s 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.759% 83.29% 00.47% 37931 213.00 { Qh7d }
Hand 1: 16.241% 15.77% 00.47% 7183 213.00 { random }
---
Board: 8c Qd 3s 2h 3h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 82.828% 81.01% 01.82% 802 18.00 { Qh7d }
Hand 1: 17.172% 15.35% 01.82% 152 18.00 { random } |
| cubbies760 wrote: |
| IMO, I'm 98% to win this match if I'm patient, and willing to slowly chip away at him, vs. possible having 65-70% equity against him for alot of chips. |
IMO, you're delusional. You're way overestimating edges in HU SNGs and even more so the edges you'll have when straying this far from the most +EV strategy just to avoid losing. |
I guess I see what you're saying, but it's not because I'm delusional. This guy is min betting almost all the time, so it's playing more like a FL game, while allowing me to get him to call my raise when I'm strong. I guess I'm 4:1 against a random hand, but if I pop him on the flop (or turn), what's my move if he shoves or re-raises?
I just figured I'd rather not be put in a situation like that when I could be behind, or drawing slim. I still feel that my play wasn't bad, but maybe too nitty. I may have been caught up in the moment because of being dumbfounded with some of his crazy plays.
I'd be more than happy to get my chips in on that flop if I had a comfortable chip lead. I was looking to get something like a 2:1 chip lead here before shoving with TP no Kicker. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:13 am Post subject: |
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| But you don't need to shove, you can make non-all-in raises that actually have a better chances of getting called by worse. And you can also bet that flop. As for how to deal with him 3-betting a raise, that's obv dependent on how he's been playing before in spots like this, and how he's been playing in general. |
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cubbies760
Drawing Dead
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 7547
Location: Suburban Chicago
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| But you don't need to shove, you can make non-all-in raises that actually have a better chances of getting called by worse. And you can also bet that flop. |
Fine, I concede that on that particular hand I played it way to cautiously. Your suggestions are probably better plays there.
| Riddim wrote: |
| As for how to deal with him 3-betting a raise, that's obv dependent on how he's been playing before in spots like this, and how he's been playing in general. |
I think you can get the jist of how he's been generally playing....like a complete retard. So given that history, let's look at a few scenarios.
--- I bet out on the flop, and he min-raises
--- I bet out on the flop, and he shoves or puts out a decent sized raise
--- I check raise the flop to 210, and he shoves
--- I check raise the flop to 210, and he calls
I don't know how likely each of these scenarios were, but I'd really hate to have to make a decision on any of those. |
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Loopholes202
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jan 2008
Posts: 2169
Location: Washington
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:22 am Post subject: |
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So I'm going to ask what we all want to know...
What is his username? |
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cubbies760
Drawing Dead
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 7547
Location: Suburban Chicago
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| Loopholes202 wrote: |
So I'm going to ask what we all want to know...
What is his username? |
Are you kidding?
I posted the raw HHs.  |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| Probably call down in the 1st 2 scenarios and definitely e-mail support in the 2nd 2. |
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cubbies760
Drawing Dead
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 7547
Location: Suburban Chicago
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| Probably call down in the 1st 2 scenarios and definitely e-mail support in the 2nd 2. |
LOL, sorry, I was basing those thoughts on memory, and I thought I was 1st to act.
I guess you're saying to get my chips in if put to the test on the flop or turn. |
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Loopholes202
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 21 Jan 2008
Posts: 2169
Location: Washington
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 11:40 am Post subject: |
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| cubbies760 wrote: |
| Loopholes202 wrote: |
So I'm going to ask what we all want to know...
What is his username? |
Are you kidding?
I posted the raw HHs. |
Yes... Kidding... its all an elaborate prank... but you found me out? |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8176
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm saying usually get your chips in, but be prepared to fold if something looks bad. I just looked through the hands more carefully and he didn't seem too crazy when it came to being the aggressor with more than minimum bets/raises, so if he'd made a decent sized flop raise and then a big turn bet I don't think you'd get shown a worse hand very often. |
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