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skj1311
High Card
Joined: 27 Jan 2008
Posts: 8
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 Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: What are the odds on losing this hand ? How can this be random ... |
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*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to skj1311 [6c Ac Ad Jd]
2JEC4M folds
SebastianDE calls $0.25
B_Cant raises to $1.10
JohnCoktosten calls $1.10
JulieKnighted folds
skj1311 raises to $4.75
SebastianDE adds $0.25
SebastianDE folds
B_Cant raises to $15.70
JohnCoktosten has 15 seconds left to act
JohnCoktosten folds
skj1311 raises to $23.55, and is all in
B_Cant calls $7.85
skj1311 shows [6c Ac Ad Jd]
B_Cant shows [6h 3s As Ah]
*** FLOP *** [2c Qc 3h]
*** TURN *** [2c Qc 3h] [7h]
*** RIVER *** [2c Qc 3h 7h] [8h]
skj1311 shows a pair of Aces
B_Cant shows a flush, Ace high
B_Cant wins the pot ($46.15) with a flush, Ace high
skj1311 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $48.55 | Rake $2.40
Board: [2c Qc 3h 7h 8h]
Seat 1: B_Cant showed [6h 3s As Ah] and won ($46.15) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: JohnCoktosten (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: JulieKnighted (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: skj1311 (big blind) showed [6c Ac Ad Jd] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: 2JEC4M didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: SebastianDE folded before the Flop
Huge odd to win or draw on flop..
What are the odds for getting turn and river to the Heart flush ?
How can this be random, is there something wrong with ftp software ?
I get rivered so many times when I have the best hand on the turn, how do you handle the suckouts on ftp ? |
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cardfish2
Royal Flush
Joined: 31 Oct 2006
Posts: 658
Location: Michigan
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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| You weren't huge odds to win on flop and turn. |
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lovebeefstew
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 19 Apr 2007
Posts: 1665
Location: Australia
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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That is laughable!! Something is wrong with the software because you got sucked out on? You do realise that theres only 52 cards in a deck right? If beats didnt happen the software would be dodgy would it not? You're also playing omaha where you will expect less experienced players and more suckouts. You should concentrate on learning some basic mathematics before you play poker in my opinion.
Stew |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 4397
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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| cardfish2 wrote: |
| You weren't huge odds to win on flop and turn. |
Not only was he not a huge favorite, he wasn't a favorite at all since they put everything in before a flop.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=5076229
pokenum -mc 500000 -o 6c ac ad jd - 6h 3s as ah
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 6c Ad Jd 124013 24.80 129725 25.95 246262 49.25 0.494
As 3s Ah 6h 129725 25.95 124013 24.80 246262 49.25 0.506
My only possible guess as to why AA63ds is better than AAJ6ds is that the 36 are at least connected to make a straight, where the J6 isn't connected for anything.  |
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skj1311
High Card
Joined: 27 Jan 2008
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:20 pm Post subject: odds after flop |
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I'm talking after flop odds, if the money wasn't all in on the flop it's defintley there after...
me win 40% tie 43%
other win 15% tie 43%
thats pretty good odds for a win or tie after flop.. |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 4397
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:28 pm Post subject: Re: What are the odds on losing this hand ? How can this be random ... |
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| skj1311 wrote: |
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to skj1311 [6c Ac Ad Jd]
2JEC4M folds
SebastianDE calls $0.25
B_Cant raises to $1.10
JohnCoktosten calls $1.10
JulieKnighted folds
skj1311 raises to $4.75
SebastianDE adds $0.25
SebastianDE folds
B_Cant raises to $15.70
JohnCoktosten has 15 seconds left to act
JohnCoktosten folds
skj1311 raises to $23.55, and is all in
B_Cant calls $7.85
THIS IS WHERE THE ACTION ENDS
skj1311 shows [6c Ac Ad Jd]
B_Cant shows [6h 3s As Ah]
THIS IS WHERE THE CARDS START FALLING
*** FLOP *** [2c Qc 3h]
*** TURN *** [2c Qc 3h] [7h]
*** RIVER *** [2c Qc 3h 7h] [8h]
skj1311 shows a pair of Aces
B_Cant shows a flush, Ace high
B_Cant wins the pot ($46.15) with a flush, Ace high
skj1311 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $48.55 | Rake $2.40
Board: [2c Qc 3h 7h 8h]
Seat 1: B_Cant showed [6h 3s As Ah] and won ($46.15) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: JohnCoktosten (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: JulieKnighted (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: skj1311 (big blind) showed [6c Ac Ad Jd] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: 2JEC4M didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: SebastianDE folded before the Flop
Huge odd to win or draw on flop..
What are the odds for getting turn and river to the Heart flush ?
How can this be random, is there something wrong with ftp software ?
I get rivered so many times when I have the best hand on the turn, how do you handle the suckouts on ftp ? |
Equity calculations are based on when the money goes in. You put all the money in before a flop, and you were slightly behind your opponent. What's the problem? |
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skj1311
High Card
Joined: 27 Jan 2008
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:42 pm Post subject: |
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| no problem, I knew it was at worst about 50/50 if he had AA as well before the flop.. just wish some of the suckouts went my way for a change.. |
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Camby24
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 01 Mar 2008
Posts: 1846
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:50 pm Post subject: |
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| If you wanna do odds from random spots I would say the odds in you winning after the river arent very good!!! |
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alex j beeson
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 15 Jul 2007
Posts: 1256
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| Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:58 pm Post subject: Re: What are the odds on losing this hand ? How can this be random ... |
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| skj1311 wrote: |
I get rivered so many times when I have the best hand on the turn, how do you handle the suckouts on ftp ? |
Same whay you handle the suckouts when playing live, you can
[ ] figure that it is just poker
[ ] kick the dog
[ ] smack the cat
[ ] punch the wife
[ ] beat the kids
[ ] smash your moniter
[ ] crush the mouse
Since you cant beat the guy up in the parking lot, I recommend the first one.... Oh, and if you choose any of the others, you might want to quit playing poker.... |
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francois8
Full House
Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 158
Location: Conshohocken, PA
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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You both had double suited aces. Either one of three things had to happen: you win, he wins, tie. So since he won, its rigged? Like they say in Bull Durham: "sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes it rains."
I'd say move this to the bad beat story, except it really wasn't a bad beat since you were essentially tied when the money went in. |
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tehchipdonk
Two Pair
Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 73
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| just running hearts, no biggie. try running quads over a flopped set, where hitting the set on the turn is no good and needs the 1 outter on the river to win |
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JINGOisME
Royal Flush
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 738
Location: Chicago
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Can you define what "random" is before attatching this hand history to it. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Camby24 wrote: |
| If you wanna do odds from random spots I would say the odds in you winning after the river arent very good!!! |
[x] lol |
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HighKey
Royal Flush
Joined: 03 Jul 2008
Posts: 611
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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| It doesn't matter who's ahead when the money goes in; it matters who's ahead when the money comes out. (In this case, him at both times.) |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 4397
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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| HighKey wrote: |
| It doesn't matter who's ahead when the money goes in; it matters who's ahead when the money comes out. (In this case, him at both times.) |
No. That's results-oriented thinking. That's why bad players say "well I won" when they call a shove on the flop with nothing and hit runner-runner to win. Long-term, it's a bad play that will cost you money. |
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