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ThePhoenix78

I'll do the best I can to estimate all of the parameters...

6 players left, top 5 get paid, something like this ($25 buy in)...

1st - $170 + $50 buy-in to our tournament of champions
2nd - $120
3rd - $80
4th - $50
5th - $30

Blinds are 750-1,500. Nobody's too comfortable, even big stack's M is probably only about 11. I'm 3rd in chips at the moment with 14,000. Here's the hand in question...

UTG folds.

UTG+1 folds.

I'm in the CO with K9o.

Button and SB have between 5,000 and 7,000 each I would guess. SB is tight, button is a bit loose, but often hesitant to call preflop all-ins with hands like A-rag or small PP.

BB is tightest player at the table, but also the big stack with about 25,000 in chips or so. I imagine, to a big raise, he'd fold Ax hands up to A9 or AT, possibly even AJ, and probably all Kx hands, and maybe even the lowest few PP.

So taking into account my general reads, the tournament situation, the stacks, the payout structure, etc...what do you do with K9o in the CO here? Oh, about me...I'm perceived as moderately tight, but somebody who can get a bit aggressive at times...but we've all been tight on the bubble for the last several hands. So what do you do and why?

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8176 Location: Sweden

I think this is a shove, but I'm not sure by any means. When you say BB is hesitant to call with Ax and low PPs, do you mean he actually folds them or just takes a while before calling?

ThePhoenix78 · Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 11:46 am Post subject:

From what I can tell, he would fold most of the Ax hands...I would be pretty confident he'd fold A9 and below, and possibly AT-AJ. Not sure about the PP...but I would guess at least 22-44 he would fold, just a hunch.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8176 Location: Sweden

Oh, my bad, I meant button, not BB.

ThePhoenix78 · Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 11:51 am Post subject:

Same thing for button, but in general, he's a lot more loose than the BB. I think he might call with most PP and probably more Ax hands, like A8 or A9 and up, I could see him calling with. Probably KQ too, and maybe KJ cuz he called an all in with KQ earlier in the tourney, though I was at the other table, so I have no clue what the circumstances were.

mathman1115 · Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject:

Would it be stupid to maybe raise to 4000 instead of shoving? If the button or small blind pushes, you're all in with them anyway, but atleast if the tight bb runs into a hand and shoves over you, you could still fold and be an average stack at the table.

I realize you would be losing fold equity to the BB (SB and button know they'd be all in, whether you shove or raise to 4k), but if the BB is tight he is going to fold just about every hand to 4k as he is to an all in. The only small range he holds that can become a problem are those hands he would CALL your raise with, but you do have position against a tight player going to the flop.

The fold equity you lose by just raising to 4k i think is more than compensated by still folding to the BB if he runs into a big hand, so at least your tournament life won't be on the line (or at least you can still make a decision for it if he shoves over the top).

EDIT: One other thing i'd like to mention, and i think it applies more in a situation against tight players. Raising all in here generally looks like you want everyone to fold, whereas raising to 4k or something like that makes it seem like you want some action. It's still a good enough raise to get people to fold hands they otherwise may have played themselves, but your opponents figure if you are putting 30% of your stack in, you could be willing to go all the way with it, thus your fold equity may stay the same as if you were all in even though you are not.

It comes down to what play gives you the better chance to win the whole thing, because based on the payouts its hardly worth playing for 4th or 5th.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8176 Location: Sweden

Ok, I did some rough math and I think you win around 900 here on average by shoving, which should be enough to make it profitable even when you take ICM into consideration. Especially since you'll only bust around 6% of the times you make the shove.

Edit: mathman, I had the thread open for a while before making this post so I hadn't seen your reply when I posted. The problem with making it 4k is that you're giving up such a big chunk of your stack without getting to realize your showdown equity. Chip wise, making it 4k and folding to a shove is going to be close to the same vs. the BB as shoving, and I'm not really sure if not risking to bust would make up for the downsides. I don't think we can take for granted that our FE is the same vs. the shortstacks whether we shove or raise small, or that people will think a small raise looks stronger.

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