Online Poker Forum at Full Tilt Poker

stenrick · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: Bankroll Experiment

The following constitutes my bankroll experiment. Credit for the original theory goes to Ryan Jones and his Money Management program for stocks, bonds, and currencies.

Premise:

Most poker enthusiasts have guidelines for what amount of their bankroll to risk ( 2% for MTT, 5% for SNG, 100 BB for cash games...etc.) but there are no real hard lines for how to build my roll beyond that. Since I also dabble with Forex, I wondered if some of the lessons I learned couldn't be applied here as well and this is what I came up with.

Since I have a starting balance of $125, and I choose to only risk 1% of my bankroll at any given time, I am only allowed to have $1.25 in play at once (I will call this a contract from now on). So, when do I move up? Here's where it gets a little sticky.

Originally this type of management operated by using my largest loss, or my largest drawdown. Since I will not be able to play cash games at this level, my largest loss is a fixed amount. However, I do not currently know what my largest drawdown is. Therefore, I am having to use a worst cast scenario of $125 (my full account balance) as my largest drawdown for my calculations. After I hopefully increase my bankroll to the point of playing cashgames, and have more hands under my belt in tournaments, I will have a better grasp of what my actual LL and LD might be.

So, based upon this, I take my current largest drawdown ($125) and divide it in half ($62.50) and this is the value used to calculate when I can increase my number of contracts in play at a given time. To determine this I use the following formula:

Next Level = Bankroll (BR) + (Current # Contracts allowed in Play * Ratio (VR))
Ratio (VR) is the larger of: Largest Loss (total), or Largest Drawdown / 2

Therefore to start I am at $125, but to increase the number of contracts I can play at one time I have to reach $187.50 ($125+(1*62.5)). I then have 2 contracts I can play at a given time or $2.50. It's fairly simple from there on:

Level-Bankroll-Contracts Value (total)
3-$312.50-$3.75
4-$500.00-$5.00
etc.-etc.-etc.

Now that I have the money management laid out, I have to plan for the poker management. Poker management is simply what do I use the contracts for.

Also, now that I have how to increase contracts, when do I decrease, and how much do I decrease?

The choice to decrease in contracts is simple: When I hit my largest drawdown, I decrease the number of contracts by 2. Obviously this can not be accomplished when I am only playing 1-2 contracts, but the higher I go, the more I want to protect my bankroll. If I ever exceed my highest drawdown, I then decrease by 3 contracts.

Poker Management

I gave a lot of thought as to how I should play this out. I wanted to have some restrictions that would help me to keep as much of my bankroll as possible, while still allowing me more freedom. This is what I came up with.

To start out, I can only play 9-man SNG's. These have the best chance for an ITM placement. So, at 1 contract, I can play only the $1.25 9-man SNG. When I reach level 2, I am able to have in play 2 contracts at the same time, kind of. I chose to restrict this mildly as well. I have a choice of: 2 - $1.25 9-man SNG's, 1 - $2.25 9-man SNG, or 1 $1.25 18-man SNG. I chose this level to allow the 18-man due to the fact that the field is twice as large, but the payout chance is only 22% (4 of 18 places) vs. 33% with the 9-man SNG (3 of 9). I am aware that the payout is larger, but we are looking at this from a best chance for increase in bankroll, not necessarily fastest.

So, to summarize what games can be played and when:

*9-man SNG's can be played when I have the contract value to play them
*18-man SNG's can be played when I have 2x's the contract value
*45-man SNG's and 90-man SNG's can be played when I have 5x's the contract value. (I placed these both together due to the fact that although the 90-man has more people, it also has a higher chance for an ITM finish.)
*MTT's of a large scale would have to take into consideration of exactly what odds I have to place ITM, but I would recommend around 10 contracts before playing these due to the potential drawdown between finishes.

How do I avoid Tilt

Well, the quick answer is: I don't.

However, in order to limit it, in the case of a losing streak, I will limit myself to 5x's the contract value to be played before quitting for the day, night, etc. This is basically using the pretense of "Let your profits run, and cut your losses short." If this occurs, I just pick up where I left off and continue playing the next day.

I know this is a jumbled mess, so if there are any questions about this, please post them so I can try to make what I am attempting a little clearer.

Wayniac · Forum Pro Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 657

Okay... I recommend you read my articles on bankroll management. I was talking to TilterRick about getting them posted on here, and we're working on it.

I'm not saying my system is better or worse than yours, but it might give you some ideas about how to avoid going on tilt and such and how I figure out the size of the roll I need to play more than one table at a time.

You can find them at http://www.impactpokeronline.com under the 'articles' link.

They might give you some ideas about how to deal with some of the things you're not sure about (like when to quit or how to avoid going on tilt). If nothing else, I'm sure they'll give you some fresh ideas that you might not have thought about when dealing with bankroll management.

mathman1115 · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:59 pm Post subject:

If you are confident and comfortable with this type of plan, there's no reason why you shouldn't test it out.

My only problem with it, which is unrelated to the plan itself, is that you are starting at the $1.25 SnGs, which have a rediculous rake. If starting with a higher bankroll is not an option, i suggest that when you build enough to put more than 1 "contract" into play, you play the $2.25s.

Flying_Kiwi · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject:

I agree with mathman on the $1.25s

If you're starting with $125, I would definitely just start out on the $2.25 SNGs and implement your plan once/if you reach your correct ratio to be playing at the level you are.

I know it's effectively cheating or bypassing your system temporarily, but paying 25% rake is going to suck into your profits.

I can also guarantee that if you're playing well, you can survive the $2.25 9-man SNGs with $50-60 (or even less). I've withdrawn twice this year and both times I've left <$20 in my acct. for times when I'm bored and want to play a SNG, and each time I've manage to build from <$20 without busting by playing the $2.25 9-man turbos.

StevieWard · Message Board Junkie Joined: 12 Jul 2007 Posts: 1566

Absolute Brain freeze. This looks harder than sitting staring at Tesnsion and strain calculations all day at work.

This looks a good post - will read when I can concentrate better.

stenrick · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject:

fletch_smf · Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2008 10:30 pm Post subject:

Wayniac · Forum Pro Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 657

Thanks... I've been trying to get TilterRick to post them as a sticky in the forums here. I think they could really help a lot of people.

stenrick · Posted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject:

Well, my BR experiment for August wasn't a complete fiasco. I haven't shown a profit, but the good news is I haven't reached my VR either. Here's a quick chart showing the current standing:

I really don't put in the time that most people do on this site, but I'm trying to work on the quality of my play, not necessarily quantity. Maybe in September I'll get things turned around.

stenrick · Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:26 pm Post subject:

It's been a while since I updated this thread. I haven't been playing a large quantity of SNG's lately though, so there is not a whole lot to tell. I can say without a doubt that grinding sucks, and I can see why some people just do not have the patience to grind out their bankroll at the lower levels using BRM techniques. That being said, here is my chart as of November 3rd, 2008:

I have still been grinding out the $1.25's and it is slow going, but the key has been really tight play. I'm talking 4% of 50 hands before ITM. Once I'm ITM, I really let my range open, perhaps too far (which is probably why I have so many 2nd and 3rd place finishes). I can live with that though. Here's to hoping this upswing continues on back into profit instead of loss anymore.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8491 Location: Sweden

OP, unless that last graph isn't from August until now like it appears to be, it doesn't seem like you've actually done any grinding yet. Finding a balance where you get in quite a few hands/games (depending on what you play) without getting to the point where you burn yourself out is actually a great way to get more motivated, because your roll obviously increases faster if you play more, regardless of the stakes.

stenrick · Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject:

Yeah, I haven't gotten nearly the amount in that I originally had planned, but life happens. I'm just trying to keep up to date to at least show that I haven't given up on this whole experiment. Some games are better than no games IMO.

cese · Three of a Kind Joined: 02 May 2008 Posts: 98

you will go crazy grinding the 1.25/2.25 9 mans
I have played basically every low stakes mtt and sng
try the $2.25 180 mans and $1.25 double stack 90 mans
thank me later

	Full Tilt Poker is licensed by the Kahnawake Gaming Commission. © Copyright 2004 - 2005 FullTiltPoker.com., All Rights Reserved