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Online Poker Forum - Bubble play help
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drewg22
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Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 139

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boking17 wrote:
In this situation you should be focused exclusively on eliminating the short stack. Playing a pre-flop raised hand against another mid-stack is an unnecessary risk, regardless of what cards you are dealt.

I'd have more sympathy for this beat if your opponent had limped with the 10s and then check/raised you after the flop.


I undertsand that idea. But what about the blinds? We were playing 4 handed for about 7-8 rounds. If you look at my second post in this thread, you will see every hand I was dealt 4 handed with some comments next to them. Anything jump out at you there?

In this case, if I folded everytime there was a raise by a mid size stack since we got to 4 people, I would have been blinded down to about $1,500-$1250 myself, putting me barely above the short stack.

Is this what you are recommending?

I am trying to find the right balance between being too agressive and being so conservative, that I only end up in third with minimal chips and no real chance at winning.
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boking17
Pair


Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Posts: 32

PostPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First off, I'm definitely not an expert. I only responded because I've often felt that sense of "obligation" to play hands in a tournament. I've started putting more weight on the situation and less on the cards and I'm having more success. It's tough to fold AJ, AQ, AK pre-flop but there are times in a tournament where it's the safer move.

I'm definitely in the conservative player camp on the bubble. I'll take 3rd and short stacked over risky bubble moves whenever possible. You had a major lead over the short stack so you definitely didn't "have" to play that particular hand.

From the hand history it looks like the table folded to your BB a couple times and that you were able to steal the blinds with min raises a couple times. I'd take this as a positive sign that your stack was maintainable. It's harder to do against a more aggressive table. You could also try mixing it up a bit with a couple larger raises to keep them guessing.

Good luck!
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ThePhoenix78
Royal Flush


Joined: 19 Jan 2007
Posts: 886
Location: On a big pile of money with many beautiful women

PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

drew, you need to learn about the Independent Chip Model. It guides a lot of considerations in SnG play. Sounds like you're a tourney player applying tourney strategies to SnGs. Mathematically, your first and foremost goal in a SnG is to make the money. The payouts for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, aren't that steep, but the difference between 3rd and 4th is infinite (something vs. nothing at all). In bigger tournies, the payout structure is very steep, so it makes sense to take more risks to try to finish very high. But in this hand, why risk a big loss when the short stack is so close to losing? KT vs. Q2 is a 2:1 favorite, but I still don't want to be only 2:1 and risk bubbling when some other guy is so close to going out. If you haven't done so already, might help to read Moshman's book on SnGs. He talks about how on the bubble, sometimes even folding QQ is correct.
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie


Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2897
Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen

PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ThePhoenix78 wrote:
drew, you need to learn about the Independent Chip Model. It guides a lot of considerations in SnG play. Sounds like you're a tourney player applying tourney strategies to SnGs. Mathematically, your first and foremost goal in a SnG is to make the money. The payouts for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, aren't that steep, but the difference between 3rd and 4th is infinite (something vs. nothing at all). In bigger tournies, the payout structure is very steep, so it makes sense to take more risks to try to finish very high. But in this hand, why risk a big loss when the short stack is so close to losing? KT vs. Q2 is a 2:1 favorite, but I still don't want to be only 2:1 and risk bubbling when some other guy is so close to going out. If you haven't done so already, might help to read Moshman's book on SnGs. He talks about how on the bubble, sometimes even folding QQ is correct.


Very good post Phoenix and spot on. With your stack and the short stack's stack you should have been patient. Third place in a SnG is almost a 100% return. Make the money is your goal here.
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cardfish2
Royal Flush


Joined: 31 Oct 2006
Posts: 648
Location: Michigan

PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Phoenix, are there any free sites out there that explain ICM? I have a limited understanding of it from reading about it on a few forums, but I'd like to learn more.
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JazzOne
Message Board Junkie


Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Posts: 1791
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cardfish2 wrote:
Phoenix, are there any free sites out there that explain ICM? I have a limited understanding of it from reading about it on a few forums, but I'd like to learn more.


SnGPlanet has a good "eBook" about Sit & Go poker. Just try google searching ICM. Or buy Moshman's book; it's a good read. Every SnG player should have Moshman's book on the shelf (unless you're killing the game without it).
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