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mgodd · Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject: Weird spot in BB with A10

No reads on him thus far, the check/call on the flop looks like a flush draw, but when he led out full pot on the turn, it seemed like maybe a weaker ace, or a bad bluff attempt. Any reason to give this hand up earlier, and as played do you call or fold the river?

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, Satellite to Midnight Madness!, 20/40 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP2: 1,635
CO: 1,410
BTN: 3,465
SB: 1,320
Hero (BB): 1,500
UTG: 1,170
UTG+1: 1,500
MP1: 1,500

Pre-Flop: (60) T

A

T

A

dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, MP2 calls 40, 2 folds, SB calls 20, Hero checks

Flop: (120) 5

5

A

(3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 100, MP2 folds, SB calls 100

Turn: (320) 2

(2 Players)
SB bets 320, Hero calls 320

River: (960) 7

(2 Players)
SB bets 860 and is All-In, Hero ???

drewg22 · Flush Joined: 25 May 2008 Posts: 139

For me it is too early to call that. There seems to be a vast number of players on FTP that think any two suited hole cards should be played even if the pot has been raised before their turn.

It is one of the notes I keep on players. One player today 4 out of her first 6 showdowns she called raises with two suited cards. I am not talking AKs or QJs. Hands like 93s, T5s, etc...

cardfish2 · Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject:

You got too many cards.

Cheater.

mgodd · Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 7:43 pm Post subject:

Oops, forgot to fix my hand. Now everyone will know it's rigged Sad

Wayniac · Forum Pro Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 617

There is an ton of questions like this lately. Maybe I should email TilterRick and have him post a sticky that I write up about the mathematics of a hand.

Run through the mathematics of it. Always at least a 10% somebody is bluffing, so 10% of the time, you'll win this. Of the other 90%, what could he have? Did you put him on a hand on the flop or the turn? The small blind limped, then checked. I would say there is a chance they hold a 5 and when another club hits, they'd like the chance to bet before 4 clubs pop up. There is also a chance that they've got a flush. I would say there is a relatively small chance they're pushing with a weak ace here.

With that said, I'm going to go ahead and say there is about a 15% they're bluffing, 70% they've got trips or a flush or a straight, and maybe the final 15% will be put toward an weaker ace.

So... we've decided that mathematically you're probably about a 7:3 dog. What does the pot tell you to do here? There is 960 in it, and the opponent is putting you to a choice for another 860 chips. So there is 1820 in there, and it costs you 860 to make the call. So you have 1820:860 or 273:129 and from our hand analysis you need about 301:129. Therefore, folding is the correct play here.

Keep in mind though that these numbers are values that I put in (for what he could be holding). You need to determine on your own from the way the hand was played the chance that he holds each type of hand I mentioned, keeping in mind that everyone's bluff percentage is at least 10%.

Also, keep in mind that we haven't done the mathematical analysis yet for determining whether or not this call is going to send you to the money (which should really be done for 9 person SNGs along with the analysis of the hand itself). Once you do that as well, I would guess that you'll find that calling here is a -ev play.

Hope that helps.

Starvingwriter · Full House Joined: 03 May 2008 Posts: 174

As played I fold this. It's early in the SnG, and the SB who is betting into you limped in. There's a flush draw and a paired board, and they called the flop, then bet strong on the turn and on the river.

Someone with a betting pattern that strong is pretty rare at low-ish level SnGs - either they'll go for the big bluff earlier, or fire once and give up.

With the limp especially, totally obscure stuff like J5s in his possible range. I'd say it's nearly certain that the villain has a five, or had a draw that got made on the turn. He could also have just about any pocket pair (especially if he was trying to get cute and limp with jacks, queens, or kings, he might be over-playing them) or that he's just donking off chips with a weak ace, but I don't personally think that's often enough that i want to put my tournament on the line.

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