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peoplepod
Pair
Joined: 26 Apr 2008
Posts: 22
Location: England
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 Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 6:51 pm Post subject: variance in sit and gos |
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i started playing 9 handed $5 sngs and have around a 50% ROI after a couple of hundred of them
i feel like i am much better than the field but 50% ROI has to be me hitting a nice spot of variance surely?
how many do i have to play before i can get a more realistic idea of my ROI? |
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ThePhoenix78
Royal Flush
Joined: 19 Jan 2007
Posts: 886
Location: On a big pile of money with many beautiful women
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Please don't come on here posting lies. |
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LostOstrich
Forum Ostrich
Joined: 11 Aug 2007
Posts: 4153
Location: In your bed, with your wife. Smoking your cigarettes, drinking your brandy.
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| ThePhoenix78 wrote: |
| Please don't come on here posting lies. |
He's showing an ROI of roughly 48% in $5 SNGs. Calling him a liar is pretty nitty imo. |
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seabas22
High Card
Joined: 16 Jul 2008
Posts: 18
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:14 am Post subject: |
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| Umm....variance with a 50% ROI? LOL. Thats crazy talk! I've never seen anybody near that high. Can I invest in you until the variance catches up with you? |
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peoplepod
Pair
Joined: 26 Apr 2008
Posts: 22
Location: England
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 am Post subject: |
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why would i lie? 
i know for full tilt on sharkscope my profit is in negative but that is not due to 5$ sngs if you look at the ROI for buyin graph it shows around 50% for 5$
if you look at stars on sharkscope although only 33 played on there it is 50% ROI
im also pretty sure the 50% ROI is down to a hot run so its not much of a brag lol
anyway how many before the variance kicks in? 500?1000?2000?10,000? |
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Wayniac
Forum Pro
Joined: 26 Mar 2008
Posts: 617
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:06 am Post subject: |
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The only real answer is: however many it takes.
Sorry we can't be of more help, but you just have to know. The $5 games are pretty ridiculous easy, so you're ROI may not go down too much at all. Step up a notch and see what happens.
Who knows... you may have found your future career. |
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peoplepod
Pair
Joined: 26 Apr 2008
Posts: 22
Location: England
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:15 am Post subject: |
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ok thanks 
i might start taking some shots at 10$ ones and see how i get on |
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Wayniac
Forum Pro
Joined: 26 Mar 2008
Posts: 617
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:23 am Post subject: |
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I should mention though:
After several thousand, you can be confident that your ROI probably isn't moving anywhere (not much anyway). However, I've heard of people go through ridiculous cold spells where their ROI would be lower than normal (I'm actually on a cold spell right now).
So realistically, it is possible you're on a hot spell for a long period, but it is unlikely.
Stick with it... it sounds like you're a small stakes badass. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8148
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:27 am Post subject: |
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| Actually, being on a hot streak is way more likely than actually being able to sustain a 50% ROI. With that said, an ROI that high over hundreds of SNGs does make it much more likely that your actual ROI is pretty high as well. |
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