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syntactician
Pair
Joined: 23 Apr 2008
Posts: 39
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 Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:27 pm Post subject: streaks |
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I've played ~200 $2 sng's, 6 and 9's, turning a very slight profit. That's ok, not expecting to get rich. What strikes me is the streakiness of luck. Recently came off horrendous losing streak, including 13 straight otm. Now I'm on a hot streak, itm last 13/14. I don't think my playing style has changed dramatically, seems to have more to do with the cards. So, whats your longest itm streak in stt's? Longest otm streak?
The play is often wild at these tables, and its tempting to think that I've learned how to profit from this.
But before I jump to any conclusions, (and before jumping up a level) I'm gonna wait a bit to see if the pendulum swings the other way.
kudos to the regular posters here, I've learned a lot! |
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Wayniac
Forum Pro
Joined: 26 Mar 2008
Posts: 617
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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I think I was in the money around 15 times in a row one time.
Longest losing streak, I lost 14 in a row once, and only two of them I went in behind... KK ran into AA and QQ ran into KK. |
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JazzOne
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Posts: 1791
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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| The variance bothers me quite a bit. I play $11 to $22 games, and I recently went on a $200 losing streak. I am gradually digging out of the hole, but that sucked. I like MTTs more these days. I actually think the variance of MTTs is lower. Maybe it has to do with the longer blind structure or something. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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| JazzOne wrote: |
| The variance bothers me quite a bit. I play $11 to $22 games, and I recently went on a $200 losing streak. I am gradually digging out of the hole, but that sucked. I like MTTs more these days. I actually think the variance of MTTs is lower. Maybe it has to do with the longer blind structure or something. |
i'm pretty sure that MTTs are the highest variance games there are. |
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cmbf117
Straight Flush
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 371
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| i'm pretty sure that MTTs are the highest variance games there are. |
Two words: Super Turbo. |
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seabas22
High Card
Joined: 16 Jul 2008
Posts: 18
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:39 am Post subject: |
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The $2 sitgo's are sometimes wild and sometimes conservative I've found. I've been on some crazy streaks up and down. I went on a losing streak of like 20 otm, and had the best hand all in every time, 10 of them I had either AA, KK, or QQ, all in preflop and got 2 outted every time. It was ridiculous! I think 10 itm is my best win streak.
Overall i'm up. I do have a much better ROI on the higher stakes though, which i guess is because people play better and actually fold hands when they are supposed to. I'm just nervous playing the higher stakes with a shorter bank roll and only play them once in a while.
The $1's drive me insane and people thinks it a freeroll! I don't understand why the fee is 25% on the $1 which makes it really hard to make anything. I think Full Tilt should lower it to 15% or 10% and they still make their money, and maybe even more from more action with the lower fee. |
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JazzOne
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Posts: 1791
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:37 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| JazzOne wrote: |
| The variance bothers me quite a bit. I play $11 to $22 games, and I recently went on a $200 losing streak. I am gradually digging out of the hole, but that sucked. I like MTTs more these days. I actually think the variance of MTTs is lower. Maybe it has to do with the longer blind structure or something. |
i'm pretty sure that MTTs are the highest variance games there are. |
I guess your right in a technical sense. I do have larger swings in my bankroll, but those large swings are almost always positive swings. The downswings occur one buy-in at a time, just like STTs. I have had MUCH longer streaks of not cashing in STTs than I have in MTTs. I know that doesn't make sense. There are probably two things at work there: First, perhaps I am just better at MTTs. Second, I think the longer blind structure of MTTs allows for more skill play. STTs become a big crap shoot pretty quickly. |
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ThePhoenix78
Royal Flush
Joined: 19 Jan 2007
Posts: 886
Location: On a big pile of money with many beautiful women
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Maybe I just haven't played enough games, but I'm always surprised to hear of people being OTM like 15 times in a row and even more surprised to hear people ITM 15 times in a row? Are you people really being honest or embellishing? I've played over 600 SnGs probably since I started keeping track and my longest OTM streak is something like 9 games and 5 in a row is my best ITM streak. And I am a winning player and have been killing $20 tables lately. Not sure if it's the way I play that has me avoiding huge ups and downs or just haven't had enough games to run into that massive winning or losing streak yet. |
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Rental_Metard
Royal Flush
Joined: 26 Aug 2007
Posts: 747
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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| ThePhoenix78 wrote: |
| Maybe I just haven't played enough games, but I'm always surprised to hear of people being OTM like 15 times in a row and even more surprised to hear people ITM 15 times in a row? Are you people really being honest or embellishing? I've played over 600 SnGs probably since I started keeping track and my longest OTM streak is something like 9 games and 5 in a row is my best ITM streak. And I am a winning player and have been killing $20 tables lately. Not sure if it's the way I play that has me avoiding huge ups and downs or just haven't had enough games to run into that massive winning or losing streak yet. |
Do you still play only 1 table at a time though? I think this would reduce your downswings as you will be able to have full focus for every game. Regardless good to hear you are crushing the $20 SNG's. |
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ThePhoenix78
Royal Flush
Joined: 19 Jan 2007
Posts: 886
Location: On a big pile of money with many beautiful women
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Good point...I do just play 1 table at a time...not trying to make a living playing poker (yet), I just enjoy making a steady profit and focusing on one table at a time to develop my reading abilities. |
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syntactician
Pair
Joined: 23 Apr 2008
Posts: 39
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| Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject: |
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No Phoenix, I'm not exaggerating, and I too thought it was weird. The final result of my streak was 9 itm, 1 otm, 7 itm, for 15/16 itm total. In many of those games I got ridiculously good cards, didn't even have to think. Since then I've gone otm 7 straight. Feels more like I'm playing lotto than poker. I don't multitable, and I suspect part of the story is that I'm not that good, unable to win without some help from the dealer.
Possibly the wild play at $2 tables has something to do with it too, reducing the influence of skill and raising the luck factor. But like some of the other posters on this thread, when I'm losing, it seems like the express train to suckout city. If I hadn't got that winning streak I might even have ended up on the "this site is rigged" thread. 
hopefully my banker will let me hit the $5 tables soon and we'll see if that evens things out. |
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