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Flying_Kiwi

Would you get involved here or just give it up?

Very early so no reads.

Full Tilt Poker, $6 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 15/30 Blinds, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: 1,470
Hero (BTN): 2,085
SB: 1,650
BB: 1,500
UTG: 1,440
UTG+1: 1,500
UTG+2: 1,500
MP1: 1,335
MP2: 1,020

Pre-Flop: (45) Q

K

dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls 30, 2 folds, MP1 calls 30, 2 folds, Hero raises to 120, SB calls 105, BB calls 90, UTG calls 90, MP1 calls 90

Flop: (600) 2

3

6

(5 Players)
SB bets 600, BB folds, UTG raises to 1,320 and is All-In, MP1 folds, Hero ??

dubztar · Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:27 am Post subject:

In my opinion a definate fold, since there is a decent chance that one of the two players pushing a lot of chips in there has the ace high draw and the other probably has an at least an overpair (if not set or straight).
Also even if you take shots a doubling or trippling up early that seem to be only a small +EV you actually loose money in the long run, since your target in SnGs is not to get a lot of chips early, but to get close to the bubble pretty much unharmed and start applying pressure there.
3rd i think KQs isn't good enough to raise the two limpers from middle position anyway, because at this stage in a low buyin SnG you will get 3 or 4 callers anyway (as in your example). Your hand also doesn't really have great value afterwards in he pot you built, because even postflop you have zero to no fold equity and can't even be sure how good a flop to pair or similar might be.

rezod212 · Two Pair Joined: 27 Mar 2008 Posts: 56

Being early I would probably lay it down also. With a pot bet and a re-raise It's doubtful that both are bluffing. You would need to hit your flush and hope someone is not drawing with the A. I would probably rule out the KQ out's in the deck cause someone is on higher then top pair 6's.

It looks like you are pretty close to the odds needed to make the call though. If the SB calls it would give the odds needed but still, being early I doubt I would cripple myself on less then a 50/50 chance. Especially with 2 others callers out there.

My guess is you made the call and a higher flush beat you.

nilgiri · Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:15 am Post subject:

I'd fold that. IMHO don't call off your stack with this sort of draw in a SnG unless you have a ton of chips to spare. It's a coin flip in most cases, and it generally isn't necessary to take coin flips in a SnG. If you are doing the shoving, that's a different story, because now you have FE on your side. But here you have no FE (obviously).

Plus, with that much action some of your outs may not be clean, making it worse than a coin flip.

By the way, I would raise bigger PF, or just limp. I'd tend to limp that. Especially in a $6 SnG you are pretty much just increasing the size of the pot unless you raise bigger PF.

JazzOne · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:22 am Post subject:

Limp pre-flop. People often call with pocket pairs. Even if they came in with a small pair, they're still ahead of you. You're building a big pot with a hand that is most likely 2nd or 3rd best to pocket pairs or even ace-rag.

jjpregler · Forum Pro Joined: 17 May 2006 Posts: 1449

I may have done the same here. If they are making the bet with a one pair hand less than QQ you are 54% to win. If they have 2p, set or something like A4 you are still 36% to win (unless the A4s is diamonds) I think the odds of TP or an overpair is higher than the odds of a set or 2p (since the 2p is unlikely on this board unless the playeris very loose). Of course there is a small chance that the SB is on bluff. You are getting 2:1 to call, so I think folding here may be wrong. Youare also pot committed with this call, so why not push.

Wayniac · Forum Pro Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 617

Mathematically you fold as well. There is (for all practical purposes) about 100% chance you're beat already.

Chance of making a flush here is 38:9 or about 35%.
Chance of winning if the flush is made (possibility of a higher flush maybe?) about 60-80% maybe?
0.35*0.7 = 0.28 or about 0.25.

So you need 3:1, but you need to invest 1320 to win about 2500 (you have 2:1). Even if the other guy was guaranteed to call, you're still hard pressed. At the same time though, if you thought catching a Q or K would win you this as well (which it probably might), it'd be a close call. You're tournament life isn't on the line, but you will only have about 400 chips left if you lose (after the small blind pushes after your call).

However, don't reraise to all in if you were to do this. With a draw like this, you'd want the small blind in this as well. If you raise it up here, you're only encouraging hands that you're trying to draw out on to fold. If he would have called with an A high flush draw before, he won't decide to fold it after you push.

It is tough. To know for sure, you should do a proper mathematical analysis of it and figure out what your chance of winning is if you're up against an A high flush draw too. If you're up against something like set or straight and an A high flush draw, you're dead.

You might be able to make an argument for calling, but I think folding might be your best move.

What happened in the rest of the hand?

Flying_Kiwi · Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:32 pm Post subject:

I ended up making the call, which I now think is a bad one (ignoring results).

My reasoning was (this is largely faulted reasoning as it all went through my head in the space of maybe 10-20 seconds):
-UTG limp/called PF which is often a sign of a mid PP or a drawing hand like mid-high SCs.
-His raise made me think he has, in order of most to least probable: mid overpair (which I'm in reasonable shape against as long as the K & Q are live too), set, or big draw (straight, flush, both)
-I know I'm not drawing to the nut flush but I've seen people in these games so willing to gamble on drawing to ANY flush
-I under-rated the SB and thought he'd just look at the big pot and call with whatever he was betting out with - he was betting out into a 3-way pot OOP after all, so I assumed he had a hand with reasonable show-down value

Result:

I called, SB folded, UTG had 66 and the turn/river are blanks.

I think it's a pretty marginal situation, leaning towards -ev - so readless, I definitely think I should've folded here.

I'm not afraid to post hands where I played like an idiot because it embarrases me into making the correct play next time.

dcdoorknob · Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject:

FWIW, I think this hand is a good example in a difference between SNGs and MTTs. In a MTT, a call is much more justifiable imo. But the payout structure of the SNGs makes it a relatively clear fold to me.

Wayniac · Forum Pro Joined: 26 Mar 2008 Posts: 617

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