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DrAndrian
Straight Flush
Joined: 02 May 2008
Posts: 383
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 Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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| I have been out of contention for weeks now hahah. I think I'm drawing dead now =( |
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skeeter1114
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 2496
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| feihua wrote: |
Let's get on with Thursday and compare notes!! |
Alright, so be it. After looking at my consensus picks (http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?t=57862&highlight=)
here is my team, and I'll explain a few of my choices:
A
Lindgren (13.4%)
Greenstein (10.2%)
Benyamine (8.8%)
Forrest (2.8%)
Singer (2.4%)
B
Ly (not a consensus pick for an A or B)
Brenes 7.6% (4.2% as an A)
Seed 4.8% (2.9% as an A)
Brown 2.2% (1.2% as an A)
JC Tran 4.2% (4.9% as an A)
C
J. Phan 1.4% (1.3% as an A, 1.3% as a B)
Bonomo 2.0% (1.8% as an A, 1.6% as a B)
Fricke 1.2% (0.9% as an A, 0.8% as a B)
M. Mizrachi 2.8% (1.6% as an A, 2.5% as a B)
Guoga 1.0% (not a consensus as an A, 0.5% as a B)
I love the value of David Singer and Ted Forrest. Both made a couple final tables in the WSOP prelim events, and both certainly can make a deep run. As for Lindgren, Benyamine, and Greenstein, all 3 have had a great WSOP so far and may carry their streak onto the main event.
My flyers in the B are Minh Ly (not a surprise if you've seen some of my picks in the bigger events so far) and Chad Brown. Both again are top notch players with low percentages. The Brenes and Seed picks are more about consistency, as it seems like they cash in the main event almost every year. JC Tran has hit a roll as of late, and may be peaking at the right time for the main event.
I save a couple of the online players for my C list with Fricke and Bonomo. Both low percentages, and I'm waiting for the Justin Bonomo breakout. John Phan has been playing pretty well and is worth a shot. Michael Mizrachi is always capable of a huge run so I'll take a chance with him. And Tony G has some low consensus numbers and makes for a great play.
I am going to take a shot and play against the huge percentages (Ivey, Cunningham, Negreanu, Hellmuth, Ferguson). I am also going against those who went deep a year ago (K. Tran, Scotty, Watkinson). I need a huge ME to get into the freeroll and end up with a big overall finish. I'm going to take a shot with some decent names at low percentages with 12/15 picks, while keeping some big names with smaller percentages in the A list. |
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vectorspace
Three of a Kind
Joined: 17 Dec 2007
Posts: 99
Location: Texas
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: |
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Pretty solid picks skeeter. BTW, nasty exit from the freeroll last night. I didn't last much longer. Flopped top and bottom pair in the BB in a limped pot and got all in against chip leader who only had top pair. Turn and river came a running pair which counterfeited me, but getting the small cash was nice.
I'm taking a similar approach by mostly choosing non concensus and dark horse picks all the way across the board in this last one even though Lindgren, Tran, and Greenstein have had fantastic runs so far.
A T.J. Cloutier
A David Chiu
A Dan Harrington
A Scotty Nguyen
A John Gale
B Huckleberry Seed
B Jeff Shulman
B John Hennigan
B Daniel Alaei
B Kathy Liebert
C William Edler
C Chau Giang
C Cole South
C Tony Cousineau
C Prahlad Friedman
T.J. hasn't had a good series this yr, but he's always a threat. One of the best situational players with excellent reads. Tight, but opens up later in the game.
Chui won the 25K WPT Championship and has a tight, aggressive style similar to T.J. Great at playing specific situations correctly.
I'm taking Scotty and Harrington even though they're a little more popular. Scotty's high off his HORSE victory and Dan is a another outstanding player. Did you see him completely outplay David Pham Head Up at Foxwoods last year?
Gale's decent and has made some deep runs in the past.
Shulman, Hennigan, and Alaei have relentless aggressive styles that may pay off. Shulman Final Tabled the 2000 ME, but he doesn't play many prelim events. Hennigan's ran horribly so far, but he's world class and this is a new day.
Liebert and Seed like you said have been very consistent and might make a deep run.
Edler, Cousineau, and Friedman have had some nice results on the tour albeit not so much this year. Giang has been hot lately and Cole South is my dark horse pick. He plays the nosebleed cash games here and went deep in one of the PLO tourneys this series. NLHE is easily his best game.
However, there are probably 100 others one could choose with just as much of a chance as these. Here's to winning the crapshoot. BTW, I'm in 168 overall right now, but it's looking like moving into the top 100 might be far fetched at this point in the game. |
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skeeter1114
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 2496
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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Vector, I like the Giang pick, always a good sleeper. Chiu might be a good one because not many choose him.
At 168, all you need is a decent showing and hope for 3-4 cashes and one of your A or B players to be one of the final 2-3 picks eliminated. Good luck. |
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feihua
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 2075
Location: Asakura, Fukuoka Japan
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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I will make an announcement ONCE the ME gets started. |
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JackWade
Three of a Kind
Joined: 30 Jun 2008
Posts: 85
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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I go against the consensus picks:
A Player J.C. Tran
A Player Humberto Brenes
A Player Jared "Wacokidd" Hamby
A Player Daniel Alaei
A Player Huckleberry Seed
B Player Minh Ly
B Player Kenny Tran
B Player Dag Martin Mikkelsen
B Player David Singer
B Player Kathy Liebert
C Player Randy Holland
C Player John Phan
C Player Eddy Scharf
C Player David Chiu
C Player Peter Feldman
JC is just on a run, you can't leave him out. He also has done well in the ME before.
Brenes seems to always cash when it comes to the ME. Very solid NL-Player.
Hamby and Alaei are my sleepers. They did well in the ME before and especially Hamby could make a deep run this year.
The rest either is on a run this year (e.g. Phan), has finished well in the ME before (Holland) and especially last year (Kenny), or is just a internet kid, who is likely to accumulate some chips early (Mikkelsen).
At last I picked Scharf, as I had to pick someone from my home country (we also got 3 bracelets already)
Last edited by JackWade on Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:55 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2899
Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Wish I knew about the money pool-I'm sitting 34th overall |
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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 546
Location: dariver
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
| Wish I knew about the money pool-I'm sitting 34th overall |
make sure to get in the one for next year.......... |
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gonefshng
Royal Flush
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
Posts: 546
Location: dariver
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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Well i had nothing to lose and every thing to gain, so.............my picks are
A Player Terrence Chan out
A Player Tony "bond18" Dunst $0
A Player Kirill Gerasimov $0
A Player Julian Gardner $0
A Player Young Phan out
B Player Blair Rodman out
B Player Daniel Heimiller $0
B Player John Gale out
B Player Thor Hansen $0
B Player An Tran $0
C Player William Chen $0
C Player Shawn Sheikhan $0
C Player Roy Winston out
C Player Thomas "Thunder" Keller $0
C Player Mike Wattel $0
Last edited by gonefshng on Sat Jul 05, 2008 9:35 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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caracara
Straight
Joined: 08 Jul 2007
Posts: 117
Location: Austin
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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Revealing my picks may help feihua overtake me for a money spot in the money pool. (He is 4th and I am 3rd.) But what the heck, let him try and beat me!
Chad Brown is one of my favorite players. He always looks a little dazed and confused, but just keeps on rolling. He also has great fighting spirit with a short stack. Binger is an astrophysicist kind of guy like myself and so he is my other fave. He has also been going deep a lot in both large and small field events.
The rest of my picks have all had multiple excellent runs during the 2008 WSOP. I know that Jesus and Barry are over selected, but they are both playing great in the big field events.
The exception to this strategy is Ly. Not suprisingly he has not shown himself well in a big field. He has so much gamble in him that is hard to see him dodging bullets for 5 days. But he is such a great player and also is such a great value that I could not pass him up.
A Player Chad Brown
A Player Michael Binger
A Player Eli Elezra
A Player John Phan
A Player Chris "Jesus" Ferguson
B Player Minh Ly
B Player Greg "FBT" Mueller
B Player Barry Greenstein
B Player Erick Lindgren
B Player Chris Bjorin
C Player Nenad Medic
C Player Mel Judah
C Player Terrence Chan
C Player Dario Alioto
C Player David Singer |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2899
Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:16 pm Post subject: |
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| gonefshng wrote: |
| craigo6x wrote: |
| Wish I knew about the money pool-I'm sitting 34th overall |
make sure to get in the one for next year.......... |
Like I'd ever run this good if there were money on the line  |
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feihua
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 2075
Location: Asakura, Fukuoka Japan
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| Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Rest assured that I am angle shooting. |
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dcdoorknob
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 May 2007
Posts: 1133
Location: Mississippi
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| Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:05 am Post subject: |
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Blah, on vacation and I'm really not going to be able to put much time into my picks (which I am about to make), but on the bright side I can look at all you guys picks and it might help speed up the process, so thanks guys. 
I will say that it in my personal opinion that Layne Flack is a really great value. How can a guy with his record and success (even won a bracelet this year for #6) have such low %s? |
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danimal0030
Two Pair
Joined: 20 Oct 2006
Posts: 69
Location: michigan
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| Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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Well here goes my last picks for the year 
Group A
X Andy Bloch
X J.C. Tran
X Josh Arieh
X Daniel Alaei
X Erick Lindgren
Group B
X Thor Hansen
X Kirill Gerasimov
X John Juanda
X Chris "Jesus" Ferguson
X Humberto Brenes
Group C
X Kirk Morrison
X Jimmy "Gobboboy" Fricke
X Kenny Tran
X Gavin Griffin
X Mark Vos
Good Luck Everyone. |
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feihua
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 14 Oct 2006
Posts: 2075
Location: Asakura, Fukuoka Japan
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| Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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| craigo6x wrote: |
| Wish I knew about the money pool-I'm sitting 34th overall |
Question:
If you were sitting with the total prize amount of craigo6x, what picks would you make to increase your position 33 spots?
I think I would have to go with:
Cunningham
Lindgren
Hansen
Bloch
Antonius
Matusow
Seidel
Juanda
Brenes
Black
Binger
Singer
Elezra
Pham
Phan
NOT that any of these are on my team. I don't have craig's totals. But 34th position going into the ME for a year where there is a nifty overall prize?
Well, that is some serious thinking to do.
As for my true picks, well, I have them submitted but am hewhawing over two of them. I need to do some last minute research........
Done.
Long shots. BIG EFFIN' LONG SHOTS. But aren't they all?
A....B....C....Ag....Player
0.7 1.1 1.4 3.2 Billy Baxter
0.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 Minh Ly
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Shane Schleger
0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 Kirill Gerasimov
0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Nick Schulman
0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 Tom Schneider
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 David Levi
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Randy Holland
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Daniel Heimiller
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gioi Luong
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Can Kim Hua
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 John Hoang
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ralph Perry
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Glen Chorny
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 David Daneshgar
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee |
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