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Online Poker Forum - 25NL AK 3bet by Tight SS

 
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Honest_Rob
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:56 pm    Post subject: 25NL AK 3bet by Tight SS Reply with quote

Villain is 15/5/6.5(3005)
How do we take villain's stats into consideration when deciding if we should call here?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
-

UTG: $4.40
UTG+1: $9
MP1: $5.50
Hero (MP2): $25.35
CO: $15.40
BTN: $5
SB: $48.05
BB: $28.65

Pre-Flop: KSpade ADiamond dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.25, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, CO folds, BTN raises to $5 and is All-In, 3 folds, Hero ?


EDIT: Another hand with same villain:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
-

CO: $25.25
BTN: $25.25
SB: $17.85
Hero (BB): $30.10
UTG: $15.60
UTG+1: $5
UTG+2: $40.95
MP1: $29.90
MP2: $24.75

Pre-Flop: QDiamond ADiamond dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $5 and is All-In, 6 folds, Hero ?
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nilgiri
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you have 3-bet% set up on your HUD? If not, this is a useful stat to have, and helps in the first hand.

First hand I would call because I don't think you are behind enough against his range with the odds you are getting.

Second hand I'd just fold. I don't think you are ahead of his range.

EDIT: Any reads? In particular, is this guy playing a push/fold game? It doesn't seem like he is given the disparity between his VPIP and PFR, but maybe he is just super tight with the hands he pushes, and looser with the hands he calls with (which seems backwards to me, but whatever). If he is playing this, I used to do this and had a VPIP of about 15 as well. In the second hand you would be looking at 88+,AJ+ if I were shoving there (which beats AQs). And that is looser than his PFR...


Last edited by nilgiri on Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Honest_Rob
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3bet is 2.26

I had just sat with him when these hands happened. Despite the large amount of hands I have no recollection of ever playing with this guy and have no notes on him. In hindsight he was open shoving a lot of hands but I didn't know it at this point.

Edit: And fwiw I called the first hand and he showed 66
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nilgiri
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honest_Rob wrote:
3bet is 2.26


That looks like QQ+,AK. You are way behind, but not behind enough to fold now. It's $3.75 to call. You win $11.9 (- rake) if you win. According to PokerStove, your equity is 38.824/61.176, so if the rake is $0.05 per $1 (right?) your EV is (.38824 * 11.35) - (.61176 * 3.75) = $2.11.

Someone correct me if I calculated something wrong.
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Big Slick x13x
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

first hand call, second hand call. I don't know how far apart these hands are but I'm sure that AQs is ahead of his range from what you've said so far. What's your opponents actual name also? I might have info on him to share.
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StevieWard
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I call the first as its a flip for a small amount, may fold the 2nd or call, not a lot in either really.
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drtre1987
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks like he is just shoving because he is so short. So I would not worry about the 3 bet stat since he is also willing to open shove the same amount. I would look at his pf raise % instead. On hand 1, you have to call seeing how you already put money in the pot. On hand 2, after what he showed you the previous hand, you have to call too. You will be flipping a lot, but I think he might show up with AJ enough to make this a call. Its really marginal though.
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Honest_Rob
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the villain's screenname is bircen.
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renegades8
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Call both I guess, the second one is a tough call (might be a fold), but the first one seems pretty easy to me.

I'm not sure about everyone else, but I don't really like playing on tables where there are so many shortstacks like in the first hand. You're simply getting into too many of these spots preflop and you can't really outplay them post-flop since they're so short. I just feel as though you can have a bigger edge when you're playing deep than short, but I guess the shortstacks are more likely to donk off their stack so I guess it depends.

EDIT: I suck at spelling. Razz


Last edited by renegades8 on Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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nilgiri
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Location: New Hampshire

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

drtre1987 wrote:
It looks like he is just shoving because he is so short. So I would not worry about the 3 bet stat since he is also willing to open shove the same amount. I would look at his pf raise % instead.


Why, exactly, do you think his 3-bet range is equivalent to his PFR when 3k hands worth of stats tell you it is not? If this isn't a mistake, and Rob truly has 3k hands worth of stats for this guy, ignoring his 3-bet stat is pretty silly IMHO. And especially ignoring his PFR for the second hand is silly, because you are going to lose money in the long run by calling with AQs against a player who raises only 5% of his hands.

Look, open up PokerStove, give Player1 a range of 5% of hands -- this is what his stats say he raises -- and give Player2 AdQd. Please tell me that you would not make that call if you had an equity of 41.129% like PokerStove says you do. It's even worse if we give the guy a more reasonable 5% range than PokerStove does by default. Instead of the default 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo, use 99+,AQs+,AQo+, which is 5.1% of all hands and much more likely. You'll notice your equity is now only 38.938%. Just because you have $0.25 invested already does not make this a call. It is a clear fold.

I played the shortstack shove game for quite a number of hands. It is profitable, and it is profitable because players don't realize just how tight your shoving range is. You can't win by assuming that shortstacks are more likely to donk off their hands, and you can't win by assuming the shortstack is going to shove just because he is short. This may be a true generalization, and maybe you will win against shortstacks in general. But when you have 3k worth of hands telling you this guy is a playing a tight shortstack game, don't ignore that!
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Honest_Rob
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

renegades8 wrote:
I'm not sure about everyone else, but I don't really like playing on tables where there are so many shortstacks like in the first hand.

I really hate playing against short stacks but it was happy hour and it was taking forever to get a seat on any good tables so I sat and played until better tables opened up.
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Riddim
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I snapcall 1 and fold 2 until he's shown that he's shoving light from EP.
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XxBinh_LamxX
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

call both hands if ur PR0.
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drtre1987
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've changed my mind on hand 2. I think its a fold. I don't think he's shoving AJ there. So that makes it a fold.
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HuJwang
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Joined: 20 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 14, 2008 3:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hand 1 is a pretty easy snap call.... hand 2 i might call
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