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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 2089 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: Set facing possible flush or straight |
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Villain is 30/5/1.2 over 171 hands. As his AF stat indicates, he doesn't seem to show aggression much unless he actually has something.
Opinions about the flop smooth call? What now?
Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $20
BTN: $87.50
SB: $108.05
Hero (BB): $150.80
UTG: $151.90
Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, SB raises to $4, Hero calls $3, UTG calls $3
Flop: ($12) J 9 8 (3 Players)
SB bets $9, Hero calls $9, UTG calls $9
Turn: ($39) 5 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $17, UTG raises to $59, SB folds, Hero ??? |
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crossroader Two Pair
Joined: 07 Aug 2006 Posts: 51
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| please raise that flop, too draw heavy to just call. also the turn bet is bad, if u still have the best hand & hes drawing with something like A10 w/ace of hearts, then ur betting way to small & giving him great odds, on the other hand if ur beat, which it looks like u are, then just check, given the fact that 2 others were in there to see the turn, good chance 1 of them was drawing to the flush so check the turn, then decide what to do based on villians bet size. |
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renegades8 Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006 Posts: 3683 Location: griiiiinding
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Raise 5x preflop after the limper, especially since you're both like 150bb deep. On the flop definitely raise 3-handed on that scary board when you're that deep. Not exactly sure how much you should make it, maybe $30-35? Your turn bet looks incredibly weak, you're almost telling him that you hate that card. Folding this turn seems fine since you're beat here most of the time, but I can maybe see some merit in calling. Since you have position here and you're deep enough you can maybe just call and re-evaluate the river. You can just let it go if he fires the river again and just check behind if he checks, and you can also possibly stack him if you fill up (not sure if you're deep enough though). |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 2089 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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| renegades8 wrote: |
| Raise 5x preflop after the limper, especially since you're both like 150bb deep. |
I called a raise -- do you mean 3-bet 5x?
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| On the flop definitely raise 3-handed on that scary board when you're that deep. Not exactly sure how much you should make it, maybe $30-35? |
My thought process on this is that I have to give up my hand if I get 3-bet. (Is this correct?) But if I smooth call and fill up OTT, I'm likely to stack someone, especially if they hit trips or already have a made straight.
Comments on that thought process?
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| Your turn bet looks incredibly weak, you're almost telling him that you hate that card. |
I was attempting to have it interpreted as me possibly hitting a flush, so that I would just get called and get to see the river. Is this bet really seen as weak that often, and not an indication that I might have hit a flush (i.e. and that the aggressor should slow down).
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| Folding this turn seems fine since you're beat here most of the time, but I can maybe see some merit in calling. Since you have position here and you're deep enough you can maybe just call and re-evaluate the river. |
Do I have the odds to do this? I'm getting what, 3:1 odds to call? But my outs are (if I counted correctly) only 10, giving me ~20% or 5:1 odds to hit a boat. (This is all assuming he has something that beats a set.) How often do you think someone with a straight or flush gets gets stacked when the board pairs OTR?
Ans what about shoving? Do I have any FE?
Last edited by nilgiri on Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:30 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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HuJwang Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Posts: 6431 Location: Halifax, NS
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:24 pm Post subject: |
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i'm not really too sure what you're thinking with the flop call. it seems really horrible to me.
as played, i think it should be a fold. you have to call $42 to win around $190 assuming that he stacks off EVERY time you fill up, and that he never has a higher set. neither of these conditions is guaranteed. the other problem is that a villain like this will often make a small value bet on the river, say 1/3 of the pot, and it will be very tough to get away from that when you don't fill, so there may even be some reverse implied odds here. |
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renegades8 Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006 Posts: 3683 Location: griiiiinding
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
| renegades8 wrote: |
| Raise 5x preflop after the limper, especially since you're both like 150bb deep. |
I called a raise -- do you mean 3-bet 5x? |
Sorry, I suck at reading hand histories. For some reason I thought that since it was in red it was you raising or something, I donno.
| nilgiri wrote: |
| renegades8 wrote: |
| On the flop definitely raise 3-handed on that scary board when you're that deep. Not exactly sure how much you should make it, maybe $30-35? |
My thought process on this is that I have to give up my hand if I get 3-bet. (Is this correct?) But if I smooth call and fill up OTT, I'm likely to stack someone, especially if they hit trips or already have a made straight. |
I don't know if you really have to give it up if you get 3-bet, but atleast you know where you are if that happens. You need to raise here simply for value and due to the fact that you don't want to get put in spots like this where you don't know if you're ahead or not. I don't really like flopping a set and then being scared and playing it for boat value, seems really nitty for hold'em. I simply don't think you're going to fill up AND stack someone who also has a big hand. You already have enough value right now so you can't really be waiting for more.
| nilgiri wrote: |
| renegades8 wrote: |
| Your turn bet looks incredibly weak, you're almost telling him that you hate that card. |
I was attempting to have it interpreted as me possibly hitting a flush, so that I would just get called and get to see the river. Is this bet really seen as weak that often, and not an indication that I might have hit a flush (i.e. and that the aggressor should slow down). |
I'm not exactly sure what level 100NL players think on, but I know that at like 25NL you can't really expect them to interpret this. I still think betting bigger is better to get more value if you're still ahead and that way you know if you're behind since they'll only play back at you with hands that have you beat if you bet bigger. This way you're getting played back at with a lot more hands (which isn't always a bad thing), but I think in this spot you'd rather find out whether you are ahead or not.
| nilgiri wrote: |
| renegades8 wrote: |
| Folding this turn seems fine since you're beat here most of the time, but I can maybe see some merit in calling. Since you have position here and you're deep enough you can maybe just call and re-evaluate the river. |
Do I have the odds to do this? I'm getting what, 3:1 odds to call? But my outs are (if I counted correctly) only 10, giving me ~20% or 5:1 odds to hit a boat. (This is all assuming he has something that beats a set.) How often do you think someone with a straight or flush gets gets stacked when the board pairs OTR?
Ans what about shoving? Do I have any FE? |
After thinking about this you probably don't have deep enough stacks to do this, HuJwang probably would be able to explain this better. I don't really like raising here since that seems kind of spewy and it seems like he has a flush/straight/bigger set quite frequently here. I think that raising is worse than calling which is worse than folding. I doubt you have like any fold equity in this spot since I doubt he raises with that many hands that he will fold with.
FWIW, 20% is 4:1 (80%:20%) |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 2089 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject: |
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Bleh, thanks. It's late and my brain isn't getting math correct.
I see the points about raising OTF. For some reason I got scared and had some sense that someone might have a straight... |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8151 Location: Sweden
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:44 am Post subject: |
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| I def. agree with everyone saying raise the flop and get it in if you can. Calling on a board like this will tend to be pretty terrible because you'll get in so many bad spots later on where you're either putting in too much money with the worst hand or too little with the best hand. On the turn your weak bet makes things really weird but I think it's probably still a fold. As for having FE, your chances of getting it in vs. worse are probably higher than your chances of folding out better. I doubt if your turn bet looks like a flush to anyone as much as it just looks weak btw. |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 2089 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: |
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Thanks guys. I had a feeling I totally misplayed this. I called the turn raise and the case 8 showed up for quads. I shoved the river and he called with a straight.
I hadn't really considered that calling the flop was that bad, but I can see how bad it was now!
Out of curiosity, what would I do OTF to a 3-bet or shove, and what would I do OTT if he smooth calls my raise and then shoves? |
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Honest_Rob Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 6277 Location: counting my blessings
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 10:29 am Post subject: |
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| Get it in on the flop all day long. This flop is so drawy that you need to protect your hand and avoid putting yourself in tricky spots later on and because the flop is so drawy, villains will often be pushing draws. And really when you flop a set it's almost always correct to just get as much money in as you can. Also let's say that you raise the flop to $30 and then he shoves. You're getting about 1.6 to 1 to call and you're about 1.8 to 1 to make a boat by the river. This is not quite correct if he has a straight but he could have so many draws/stupid two pairs as well that you are already ahead of. Also other times he'll just fold to your raise and you'll win the pot right there. |
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PokerJessO Straight Flush
Joined: 28 Jun 2007 Posts: 412
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Yeah, flat-calling this flop in a 3-way pot is a bad move. Your turn bet is also bad - not because it appears weak, but because it's very likely that at least 1 of your opponents was on a draw, and the most likely draw just hit. Your hand was big on the flop, but seriously shrank on the turn. Check/call here to see the river as cheaply as possible. |
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reitking1 High Card
Joined: 12 Mar 2008 Posts: 8
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Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: |
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| I'd call the turn primarily because if I was in your opponent's position with a weaker made hand, I would be raising just like he did. |
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renegades8 Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006 Posts: 3683 Location: griiiiinding
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Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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| reitking1 wrote: |
| I'd call the turn primarily because if I was in your opponent's position with a weaker made hand, I would be raising just like he did. |
lol, what kind of made hands are they taking this line with that you have beat? |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8151 Location: Sweden
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Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| renegades8 wrote: |
| reitking1 wrote: |
| I'd call the turn primarily because if I was in your opponent's position with a weaker made hand, I would be raising just like he did. |
lol, what kind of made hands are they taking this line with that you have beat? |
All sorts of pair+draw hands, which is what you'll see most of the time if you get it in here and your hand is good. This is also why the small turn bet is so bad imo. It encourages people to raise with those types of hands, but probably not to the point where we can get it in profitably. |
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