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cjavdani
Royal Flush
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
Posts: 641
Location: Eugene, OR
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 Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:46 pm Post subject: NL25 AA v Massive Flop Overshove |
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No read on villain. WTF is this?
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
BTN: $27.45
SB: $91.75
BB: $25
UTG: $54.85
UTG+1: $50.35
UTG+2: $42.05
MP1: $28.65
Hero (MP2): $42
CO: $25
Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (MP2)
UTG raises to $0.85, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 4 folds, UTG calls $2.15
Flop: ($6.35) T 7 T (2 Players)
UTG bets $51.85 and is All-In |
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live4freerolls
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Nov 2006
Posts: 2482
Location: Grindin
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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| I hate these types of situations as I'm not very good in them, but I'd prolly call. |
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drtre1987
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2120
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Snap call. People are stupid. |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3679
Location: griiiiinding
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:02 am Post subject: |
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| Easy call imo. You're only behind TT, Tx, and 77, which aren't very likely. He's almost never going to open shove with those hands, along with the fact that it's extremely unlikely odds-wise that he has any of those hands. This seems like a really obvious spot here (even though you probably are behind hence why you posted the HH), don't worry about the results. Of course once in awhile he'll show one of those three hands that has you beat, but don't worry about it. Not that it really matters since it's obv a snap call, but most of the time this is probably like JJ+, overs/fd, overs/sd, etc. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 12:20 am Post subject: |
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| eh...... this is 25nl, not 50nl. the bet is for 160BBs, so it's a pretty **** huge bet. i don't think i get away from it, but it's not exactly a snap call for me. it's more of a "wtf?" call. still, when you say "no read", you have to assume "average 25nl full ring villain" and you are going to be more familiar with what that means than i am. |
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renegades8
Forum Fish
Joined: 26 Nov 2006
Posts: 3679
Location: griiiiinding
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:05 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| eh...... this is 25nl, not 50nl. the bet is for 160BBs, so it's a pretty **** huge bet. i don't think i get away from it, but it's not exactly a snap call for me. it's more of a "wtf?" call. still, when you say "no read", you have to assume "average 25nl full ring villain" and you are going to be more familiar with what that means than i am. |
What would make you have to really think about it for that long? I really don't see what kind of range he could possibly have that has you beat. |
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Peepers_au
Royal Flush
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 621
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:43 am Post subject: |
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Seems to me you'd be an 80%+ favourite against any kind of range the villain is likely to have and against the hands that beat you shoving wouldn't be the optimal line for the villain to take.
If he has a set you think he'd check/raise a c-bet on the flop to get extra value in case you fold. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:48 am Post subject: |
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| I'd call (it's not a snapcall but it's still a call). I've lost a few where I've led out & been reraised but I wouldn't be too worried as he's gone straight allin. He could have a T or he could have any two cards above it. Odds are enough in your favor. |
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drtre1987
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2120
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:51 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| still, when you say "no read", you have to assume "average 25nl full ring villain" and you are going to be more familiar with what that means than i am. |
Even though you have no read, you can't assume this player is an "average 25nl full ring villian". The avg 25nl villian will not overbet shove a flop like this. The biggest assumption you can make is that he is a 25nl villian that is capable over donk shoving 160bb on a TT7 flop. The avg player that falls under that category will probably be really bad and will be shoving a range that is wide enough to make this a call. |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1552
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:40 am Post subject: |
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| I'd call agreeing with Drtre and Renegades8's posts. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6431
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:16 am Post subject: |
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| drtre1987 wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| still, when you say "no read", you have to assume "average 25nl full ring villain" and you are going to be more familiar with what that means than i am. |
Even though you have no read, you can't assume this player is an "average 25nl full ring villian". The avg 25nl villian will not overbet shove a flop like this. The biggest assumption you can make is that he is a 25nl villian that is capable over donk shoving 160bb on a TT7 flop. The avg player that falls under that category will probably be really bad and will be shoving a range that is wide enough to make this a call. |
Obviously the other player is really bad, but him shoving a wide range doesn't necessarily follow. Let's think: why is he overbet shoving this flop? I can think of three possible reasons: 1) he's just insane and is truly doing this with a totally weird range, 2) he has a big hand and is trying to be "tricky", 3) he has a hand he thinks is ahead, but he is scared about being
outdrawn.
Now if it's number 3, obviously this is a weaktight player who is more interested in preventing a big loss than winning money. We're hoping he has a hand like QQ or KK. But think about it for a second... if he is weaktight and scared of flushes and straights, wouldn't he also be scared of larger overpairs? After all, you did make a large re-raise preflop. Does a weaktight player really stick this much money in with anything less than KK? Obviously, some can, but I think the majority of these types don't.
Now, I would still call, because I suppose even if we restrict hands we beat to KK/AA, there just aren't enough combos of suited T's that he would call a 3bet with. But really, we're hoping he's either player 1), or player 3) with AA/KK. There's obviously also the chance it's a type 3) player with QQ/JJ... but I just think these should be weighted a lot less than KK, AA, and trips. And, also, I think there are going to be a fair number of type 2) players. Like I said, I'm not getting away from this, but I'm not exactly fist-pumping
fwiw when I used to play 25NL i can only remember being in this exact situation once. I had 3-bet with AA, got 3 callers, and first to act open shoved the T44 flop for like $20 into $12. When I called he flipped over TT. Maybe I'm being retardedly results oriented, but the main thing I remember about 25NL FR is that whenever the money went into the middle, an overpair just wasn't good very often. |
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drewg22
Flush
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 139
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 8:46 am Post subject: |
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I would rule out TT unless the villian is a real idiot.
If you are sitting the with four of kind and a flush draw and also a possible straight draw are on the board, you want one of your two remaining opponents to make a hand.
That is the surest way for you to extract a good sum of money. |
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cjavdani
Royal Flush
Joined: 17 Dec 2006
Posts: 641
Location: Eugene, OR
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: |
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| After playing longer, the villains stats end up being 28/7/.5 with a WTSD of 28. So in retrospect this is aggression from a loose passive player. |
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drewg22
Flush
Joined: 25 May 2008
Posts: 139
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| cjavdani wrote: |
| After playing longer, the villains stats end up being 28/7/.5 with a WTSD of 28. So in retrospect this is aggression from a loose passive player. |
Did you call or fold? Curious what the villian had. |
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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6271
Location: counting my blessings
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| Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 10:23 am Post subject: |
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| I agree with HuJ here. I'm not sure we should be getting away from this but it's hardly a snapcall. It's been my experience that 25NL players don't just over shove with nothing that often. It's somewhat common to overbet a big hand to be tricky. Because we 3bet PF I think villain might just be shoving hoping we are on an overpair rather than AK and get it in bad. Since we are so deep I'm not sure calling here is the greatest of decisions. It might be the best decision but it's somewhat marginal imo. |
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