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LostOstrich · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 5:34 am Post subject:

Variance has caught up with me a bit..

Played 100
Total Stake: $750
Total Ret: $868.50

The more observant amongst you will notice that this means I've returned a total of $44.10 from my last 26 of the $7.50 games. I actually had a run of 15 without making the money once!

I'm not doing anything wrong, and I can confidently say that I will show a good profit from these over the long term. But anyone who is serious about grinding these (as I am) should be aware that the huge increase in variance will require your BRM standards to be set a little higher.

I anticipated this before I began, hence I'm playing $7.50 games when I'd be comfortably rolled for the $30 ones. I'd suggest applying MTT Bankroll Management standards rather than SNG: be sure that you have a minimum of 100 buy-ins before you begin grinding.

Anyway, I've got a 4-day weekend off work, so I'm going to begin my super turbo donkathon now. I'll report back later.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8151 Location: Sweden

I found this thread and had to try them out. These things are fun! Played a bunch of $3.5 ones and won a few bucks. Push/fold poker is the good part of SNGs anyway, so there's not even a need for regular ones now. I think I'll be playing quite a few of these when I'm bored but too unfocused to play normal poker.

mathman1115 · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 2:13 pm Post subject:

Captain Japple · Royal Flush Joined: 15 Feb 2008 Posts: 580

Mathman, I've had moderate sucess with these. As far as I can see there is nothing wrong with the 15 or so hands that I scanned through from your above post.
With all due respect, I think your problems must lie somewhere in the other 114 knock-outs that youve had.
I would look closley at the hands your calling allins with. I say this because I got ITM in one of these without seeing a single flop. I did collect a couple of blinds with 2 shoves in LP, but never saw a flop.

Good Luck, I hope you get back on the upswing.

Captain Japple · Royal Flush Joined: 15 Feb 2008 Posts: 580

Another thing, It may have already been mentioned, People get really loose when its down to 3. It seems most are just happy with ITM while multi-tableing these. I usually get tight and try to wait to get HU.

At least this is my experience with only playing 40-50 of these.

mathman1115 · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:18 pm Post subject:

dcdoorknob · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 4:20 pm Post subject:

I'll go through and offer my opinion mathman, and you can take it for what its worth. Many of them are perfectly fine, I'll just comment on a few that are questionable or bad in my opinion. I certainly won't argue that you haven't been running bad (did you hand pick all the bad beats?)

The (2nd) AQ where you called an all in in front of you, I think you should probably pass in this spot. You have 10 BBs still, not desperate yet, and there are 6 people left you act behind you, and you can't win except for a showdown. This is one of those spots where taking a gamble for all your chips, even if you have slightly the best of it, is a negative equity situation for you (although if you knew you had him dominated and that everyone else would fold, you could call, but that isn't realistic).

77, 3 left with 7 BBs, I definitely shove preflop. You really can't fold to a reraise anyway imo, and I'd prefer to have the max fold equity, not encourage BB to see a flop.

Really early w/ ATo. Don't like this all in either. Too many people behind, someone will call, which is bad for you equity wise even if you have slightly the best of it, and even if you do isolate, you still have to win a showdown against shorty to win any chips. This has to be a fold imo.

A7, 3 handed, 8BBs... Shove it. If you are calling the reraise all in anyways, why aren't you shoving?

ATs, 40/20blinds after min-raise... I think I just fold it. If I'm getting it all in without a premium early I need substantial fold equity, and I just don't know that you have it here (what is he folding, really?). Assuming he always calls, you are only 60% against even a pretty wide range here, and when you factor in the chance that someone behind could have a better hand, its a fold imo. (Plus ICM would likely say that taking a sure 60/40 gamble for what is essentially your stack loses you some equity).

JTs, I'd wouldn't call the all in, even with the flush draw. Pushing all in first on that flop might be the best option though, but calling the all in isn't good imo.

A8o, 6BBs - Marginal spot but I think a fold might be best after the limper.

A9o, 10 BBS - Don't like this push either, again I'd fold after the limper, as even when someone calls with a slightly worse hand it is bad for you, and people call too much, and the the reward of the smallish pot just isn't worth that risk..

cubbies760 · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject:

MVP04X3 · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject:

Mathman,

Yes, most of th time you did get it in well. Bad beats are going to happen an aweful lot in these. I personally think you call too much. I also see some EP raises with some pretty marginal hands. Why not wait to make a move rather than jam A10 or some other crap in EP? I saw your post saying you dont call 22-55 or a2-a9. My god I sure hope not unless you got chips to burn. I personally think your calling range needs to be AQ+ and 1010+. Why call off chips when positional raises work so well in these? I have no problem shoving and making someone call off their stack even if I am a 60/40 dog. However, calling off my own stack when I am likely to be only a 60/40 favorite is not my favorite option, especially early. Fold equity is the big thing in these. Use it to your advantage in a smart way. I posted my pushing and calling requirements earlier in this thread. Give it a shot, I bet your results get a lot better!

mathman1115 · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 7:13 pm Post subject:

Thank you all for the responses. I know it can be mind numbing to thumb through all of those histories. The fact is, i was being sorta rhetorical by posting all of those hhs and then saying "feel free to tell me what i'm doing wrong" In all but 1 or 2 i was the favorite, and the majority i was 60/40 or better. Also, i wasn't posting any situations where my hands did hold up, and in most of the rest of the ones i left out, i was a coinflip or behind. One thing that has been irritating me just as much as the suckouts are the times i am in with the worst of it. I can't seem to catch a card. Even when i am behind, i should still be catching a card 20-30% of the time, and it just isn't happening. So the variance is killing me several ways.

Basically, if i think i have atleast a 60/40 edge, i'm putting my chips in on a call. The problem with waiting around for a better hand (than say AT, AJ, AQ, 66, 77) is you end up getting under 200 chips, and then going in with something worse, not to mention even if you do double up, now your at 300 something and you are still not guaranteed money. In addition, if you do get in the money, your eeking in and not in a good position to win.

Doubling up early with a strong hand and a large edge is all good in theory, but you essentially have about 3 orbits before you get desperate. In those 25 hands or so, you have to pick up a premium and get someone else to go in with you. It's basically the luck of the cards in that sense.

MVP04X3 · Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2008 7:20 pm Post subject:

zamkin · Pair Joined: 21 Jan 2007 Posts: 34 Location: Erie, PA

Well after a couple of bad days and my ROI reaching just about 0 at these, the variance decided to change once again in my favor Smile

Here is an update of my status at the $3.80 stakes.

Total Tournaments (418)
1st (57)
2nd (47)
3rd (62)
Avg Finish (4.49)
ITM (39.71%)
Amount Won ($1,732.50)
Net Won ($144.10)
ROI (9.07%)

I noticed during my major downswing that you can lose with your money in good 100% of the time for as long as the poker gods want you too. These games are really helping with my tilt factor, and getting knocked out of a tourney is so common now I dont even blink when it happens. I only think what I could have done different to not get beat just yet.

MVP04X3 · Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 6:05 pm Post subject:

I can relate to running bad in these. I just lost 8 in a row. Fortunately I followed that with cashing 7 out of 8 and winning 4 so it ended up working out for the good.

bizarroquinn · Message Board Junkie Joined: 02 Oct 2006 Posts: 1514

So I played 10 of these to see where I ended up, and yes there were lots of suckouts.

Here's my cashes:

4/10

Two 2nd $9.45 each $18.90 Total
Two 3rds $6.30 each $12.60 total
---------------------------------------

$31.50 total $38.00 in buyins, -$6.50 total
-17% ROI

Sad

I'm gonna say this was variance and try another 10, using cubbies strategy.

2 high flush · Posted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 10:30 pm Post subject:

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