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Badlydrawnboy Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 127
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 1:16 am Post subject: I made a mistake: donkeys are not what they seem |
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Yesterday I saw a very intriguing NL hand in a Sit 'n Go.
There was a raise and three calls before the flop, which came down:
K-K-K
The first guy leads out with a heavy bet, and gets three calls.
Turn:
K-K-K-Q
Again some heavy betting, still four people in the hand.
River:
K-K-K-Q-Q
Wow, we have a full house on the board here. First guy goes all-in, the second guy calls him.
THE THIRD AND FOURTH GUY BOTH FOLD.
Of course, it was a split pot between the first two players: the first guy had TT and the second one was betting on A high all the time (sadly neglected strategy by the pros, I would say).
I know I shouldn't educate the table, but I couldn't hold myself anymore and wrote in the chatbox: "Why are you people folding??? Don't you know the rules?"
One guy smiled at me without saying anything.
But after thinking about it for a few hours, I have changed my opinion. Let's see what these people may have been thinking:
1. "One of them must have an Ace, so they have a higher kicker"
No, that can't be it. Even donkeys know the rules of the game, don't they?
2. "One of them must have a higher full house".
Hmm, interesting. It's certainly possible that one of these guys had AA. Good fold.
3. "One of them must have quads by now".
This must be it! The donkeys put one of them on quads! (Perhaps even both of them) That's why two of them were folding their full house!
I must say that this cute little hand has completely changed my opinion about donkeys. Actually, it came as a shock to me. I mean, even Daniel Negreanu couldn't lay down his full house against Gus Hansen's quads. But the donkeys were capable of doing it.
I've found the reason now why they continuously suck out on me: their intellect is far superior than mine. Next time I play AA all the way to the river and lose, I must remind myself that 69o means they have live cards, and that I am a huge underdog to them.
I learnt a valuable poker lesson today, I hope you did so too and see you at the tables.
BDB |
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esperz Full House
Joined: 10 Apr 2008 Posts: 220
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 4:11 am Post subject: |
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| Daniel's hand really shouldn't be mentioned. |
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HuJwang Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Posts: 5330 Location: Halifax, NS
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 4:24 am Post subject: |
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Um, keep in mind that you're calling a huge bet to win a fraction of the pot. If the pot is 100 chips and a guy goes all-in for 100 more, and gets one call, you're calling 100 to win 33 chips assuming nobody else calls. it's not a stupid fold at all and with a lot of people in the pot i can see a K being out there fairly often.
and esperz is right, the negreanu hand is completely 100% different from this situation so i have no idea what you are talking about. |
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Badlydrawnboy Flush
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 127
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 4:31 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| Um, keep in mind that you're calling a huge bet to win a fraction of the pot. If the pot is 100 chips and a guy goes all-in for 100 more, and gets one call, you're calling 100 to win 33 chips assuming nobody else calls. it's not a stupid fold at all and with a lot of people in the pot i can see a K being out there fairly often. |
If they truly believed there was a K out there, why did they all bet so big on the flop and the turn? All 4 of them! Makes no sense. Especially not for the two guys who had position and now fold to an all-in.
If they were really that afraid of a King, they should have folded a long time before the river.
(Btw I believe they were all pretty much pot committed by now.) |
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HuJwang Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Posts: 5330 Location: Halifax, NS
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2008 5:14 am Post subject: |
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| Badlydrawnboy wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| Um, keep in mind that you're calling a huge bet to win a fraction of the pot. If the pot is 100 chips and a guy goes all-in for 100 more, and gets one call, you're calling 100 to win 33 chips assuming nobody else calls. it's not a stupid fold at all and with a lot of people in the pot i can see a K being out there fairly often. |
If they truly believed there was a K out there, why did they all bet so big on the flop and the turn? All 4 of them! Makes no sense. Especially not for the two guys who had position and now fold to an all-in.
If they were really that afraid of a King, they should have folded a long time before the river.
(Btw I believe they were all pretty much pot committed by now.) |
well it's kind of hard for anyone to evaluate the hand without the bet sizing and stacks and stuff. |
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