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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6014
Location: Halifax, NS
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 Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:03 pm Post subject: 100NL - fish tells me he has a big hand |
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Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1 (HH Converter by Kreatief)
BTN ($102.65)
SB ($97.50)
BB ($127.25) (Hero)
MP3 ($78.65)
CO ($29.70)
Preflop: Hero is BB with T , A
MP3 calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, 1 folds, SB raises to $2.00, Hero calls $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00,
Flop: A , 4, 5 ( $8.5 )
SB bets $6.00, Hero calls $6.00, 1 folds, CO calls $6.00,
Turn: A ( $26.5 )
SB checks, Hero bets $20.00, 1 folds, SB raises to $45.00, Hero pukes
Villain is 21/19/5, though despite his stats he seems kinda bad and tagfishy.
This hand is kinda interesting because the villain thought for a few seconds before checking the flop, and then also "thought" for quite a while before raising me on the turn. Ok, I get it buddy, you have a big hand. Is it bigger than mine though?
Also, thoughts on turn bet size? |
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esperz
Full House
Joined: 10 Apr 2008
Posts: 220
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| Posted: Tue May 13, 2008 11:35 pm Post subject: |
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My personal opinion is that he is on some kind of draw. Perhaps Ax spade draw. On the turn, I'd bet flat pot to try to deny his his drawing.
The betting pattern appears to be completely legit if we were to believe that he was holding AJ or above (and in my head, that's the only thing he could be holding if he 'paused and thought about it' before betting.
But, based off your own reads, I'm inclined to beleive top-pair spade draw. Make him pay.
Edit: Missed the stack sizes. In that case, I'd either likely shove or less likely check shove. |
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Peepers_au
Straight Flush
Joined: 15 Feb 2008
Posts: 459
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:40 am Post subject: |
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| esperz wrote: |
My personal opinion is that he is on some kind of draw. Perhaps Ax spade draw. On the turn, I'd bet flat pot to try to deny his his drawing.
But, based off your own reads, I'm inclined to beleive top-pair spade draw. Make him pay. |
How can he have an Ax spade draw when the As is already on the board? |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6014
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:47 am Post subject: |
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| esperz, why do you think he might have a draw here and not a made hand? Do you often see people check-raising small with draws? |
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agpmedia
Pair
Joined: 10 May 2008
Posts: 24
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:48 am Post subject: |
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| Could have a set of 5s or 4s for the full house??? |
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StevieWard
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007
Posts: 1491
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 8:51 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| esperz, why do you think he might have a draw here and not a made hand? Do you often see people check-raising small with draws? |
He could be one of those idiots that min raise with AQ etc - I call and reevaluate the turn. IU hate these hands - 50/50 shove turn, 50/50 call/shove river depending on card. |
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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5847
Location: counting my blessings
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: |
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This hand sucks. I can't really see his range being much wider than 44, 55, Ax where x can be just about anything. His stupid min raise confuses me and obviously you haven't seen him do this before or you would have mentioned it. We know he at least didn't do it with AA as a stupid value raise. I would think he might make that raise with some kind of suited connector preflop but I really doubt he would raise the turn like that with a straight of flush draw once the board paired. I think this probably comes down to how we do against 44, 55, Ax but I don't feel like working out the numbers right now. I'm guessing it's really close with the odds a shove is getting and I doubt we have much if any fold equity.
EDIT - Alright I couldn't help myself. We're 47% percent against that range so I think this is a shove.
EDIT 2 - Yeah and a shove is getting almost 2 to 1. Shove imo.
EDIT 3- After going through it this hand doesn't suck that much.
Last edited by Honest_Rob on Wed May 14, 2008 11:44 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5847
Location: counting my blessings
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 11:42 am Post subject: |
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| StevieWard wrote: |
| He could be one of those idiots that min raise with AQ etc - I call and reevaluate the turn. IU hate these hands - 50/50 shove turn, 50/50 call/shove river depending on card. |
I don't think calling the turn is really an option here. Villian only has $44.50 left after his raise and the pot will be like $115 if we call. He's committed. The only way calling could possibly work is if we think villian is a total idiot and he is bluffing and he is very likely to fold to a push and he will bluff again on the river but I doubt we could ever really be sure of all that. |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 1539
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 12:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| I don't think calling the turn is really an option here. Villian only has $44.50 left after his raise and the pot will be like $115 if we call. He's committed. The only way calling could possibly work is if we think villian is a total idiot and he is bluffing and he is very likely to fold to a push and he will bluff again on the river but I doubt we could ever really be sure of all that. |
If he's committed except in the odd case where he is bluffing and might try again on the river, why are we shoving instead of calling? We certainly are not expecting to fold out any better hands, right? So presumably we want to shove now to get all the money in the middle. But is there a hand we can't get him all in on the river with that we can on the turn? With the range you came up with, it seems like he's never going to fold OTR if we just call here and shove the river, but he might try another bluff the few times he has air.
I'm just not seeing the strategy behind shoving the turn... |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7699
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri, it's really unlikely that he'll shove the river with air so we're better off getting it in on the turn in case he has some kind of draw. I think we're in a really annoying spot when he makes that turn raise though, but I probably just shove and take a note. |
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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5847
Location: counting my blessings
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| I don't think calling the turn is really an option here. Villian only has $44.50 left after his raise and the pot will be like $115 if we call. He's committed. The only way calling could possibly work is if we think villian is a total idiot and he is bluffing and he is very likely to fold to a push and he will bluff again on the river but I doubt we could ever really be sure of all that. |
If he's committed except in the odd case where he is bluffing and might try again on the river, why are we shoving instead of calling? We certainly are not expecting to fold out any better hands, right? So presumably we want to shove now to get all the money in the middle. But is there a hand we can't get him all in on the river with that we can on the turn? With the range you came up with, it seems like he's never going to fold OTR if we just call here and shove the river, but he might try another bluff the few times he has air.
I'm just not seeing the strategy behind shoving the turn... |
Because he's almost never bluffing here. But of the very few times he might be(which again won't be often) he'll be semi-bluffing somewhat often with some weird suited connector type hand. If we just call and he completely misses then he's most likely going to check/fold the river. The only way calling works is if we know this guy is a total idiot and won't realize that his bluff will never work on the river because we will never fold to such a small bet. |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 1539
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| nilgiri, it's really unlikely that he'll shove the river with air so we're better off getting it in on the turn in case he has some kind of draw. |
I can understand if we include draws in his range, but I was replying to Honest_Rob who was saying that he thought we should treat this as if his range were 44, 55, Ax (and, presumably, bluffs).
| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| But of the very few times he might be(which again won't be often) he'll be semi-bluffing somewhat often with some weird suited connector type hand. If we just call and he completely misses then he's most likely going to check/fold the river. |
Ok, that makes more sense to me! |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7699
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Wed May 14, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Draws are part of his bluffing range, and they're almost always the only part of his bluffing range that we can win any more money from, no matter what we do. In fact, since he's basically never folding anything that he raises for value, draws are usually the only hands in his entire range against which it matters whether we call down or shove. |
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esperz
Full House
Joined: 10 Apr 2008
Posts: 220
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:41 am Post subject: |
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No your right... No spade draw. I'm an idiot for not noticing.
But even then... the read is the guy's a moron. A moron would look at his hand and go "Ax is good, I can bluff it later if need be for a chance of Ace high".
When he sees and ace on the flop he automatically assumes he has the best hand, but is insecure of it. The guy bets. He respects the bet, but its not enough for him to leave the hand, "What is the guy is has 1010-QQ, QJ QK KJ? I don't want to be bluffed out of a pot that is already mine."
He sees the bet on the following turn when his 3rd revealed ace hits. His thinking is "...Ok... now it appears that I have an Ace. It is extremely unlikely that this man has the case ace. ...I mean, what are the chances? This man has to be bluffing his ace, but I got mine."
So he raises, doubting the original bet.
I'm 85% sure the man is on Ax, but you never know what that x is. Might be a full house or not. But either way, I think he's justified and even almost obligated to shove him.
I could believe 44 or 55... But its unlikely.
Regardless, either way, there's 4 outs for him to nut it and an additional 4 to split it. If I was second-guessing myself on remote chances, I'll use those outs to rationalize it to myself.
---
But, here's my disclaimer... I'm treating his hand based off of his read, nothing more nothing less. If this was a normal or even skilled player, I'm semi-happy to fold to the probable Abetterkicker. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6014
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Thu May 15, 2008 2:48 am Post subject: |
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| esperz wrote: |
When he sees and ace on the flop he automatically assumes he has the best hand, but is insecure of it. The guy bets. He respects the bet, but its not enough for him to leave the hand, "What is the guy is has 1010-QQ, QJ QK KJ? I don't want to be bluffed out of a pot that is already mine."
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Er, he was actually the one who bet the flop |
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