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fire_eyes_2k

I know you should never fold a set, but what the hell can I beat?

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $169.80
SB: $136.10
BB: $24.20
UTG: $59
Hero (UTG+1): $105.60
MP: $99.85
CO: $125.25

Pre-Flop: 5

5

dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 6

8

T

(2 Players)
Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) 5

(2 Players)
Hero bets $8, BTN raises to $20, Hero raises to $50, BTN raises to $162.80 and is All-In, Hero ????

$165 pot, $50 left to call.

Villain seems pretty ABC.

He's never bluffing here, He might have QQ/KK/AA, can't really see the straight, or he's got a bigger set and I just hit the worst turn card in the world.

Either way, 3.3:1 is hardly great is it?

HuJwang · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 8:04 am Post subject:

If he's ABC doesn't he raise the flop with a set? Anyway you have to call getting well over 3-1. 3-bet/folding the turn seems really bad.

Also I'm not entirely sure I would bet that flop because it hits a lot of hands. And I'm not a big fan of your bet-sizing... when I bet that flop it's because I have a hand I'm trying to protect, and I'm usually betting $5-$6 on that kind of flop. Same for turn, I don't like the 1/2 pot bet.

AARONWATSONUK · Banned Joined: 09 Feb 2008 Posts: 96 Location: WINCHESTER

hey just so you know ,heres how I would have played it.

I would have checked the flop instead of betting out and if other guy raised id lay down simple...

to bet out on the flop with two over cards on deck is not always the wisest move ,its good to bluff, but when you have the str8 draw there too with that 5 helping it makes matters difficult!!

If your 55s didnt hit the flop first off leave well alone given the cards out on the deck.......

and yes id have called him all the way not folded like i guess u did on the river ....with pot odds and a genuine thinking hes got two pair id have definately called.......ok gl xxxxxxxxx Evil or Very Mad

craigo6x · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:45 am Post subject:

There are times you can fold a set...this isn't one of them.

bxball · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 10:48 am Post subject:

since nobody else has entertained the idea, i will. this guy just called you from the button. unless he's a very good, tricky player, he's likely to have something like 10-8 for two pair, or even a hand like J-9 suited for a monster draw. the all-in makes the J-9 unlikely unless he's putting you on a bluff with A-K or something like that.

I've laid down sets before when I was certain I was looking at a better set, but if I'm here I simply have to call. he could be on such a huge range of hands that mathematically it's worth it to make the call, even if you're wrong this time.

fire_eyes_2k · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 11:39 am Post subject:

Thanks for the responses. That was the second time I'd made a set of fives in about 5 minutes. It was also the second one I lost with a set of 5s in about 5 minutes.

I was really really sure he had a bigger set than me, but I went for the "never fold a set" (on a board like that) rule, and threw it in. He had 88 FWIW.

Sabakka · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject:

Interestingly, Villain's flop play is a bit odd for an overpair. With AA-JJ he'd probably reraise your flop bet to make draws pay. So, if you include those in his range, I think you shoud discount them by at least 1/2.

Riddim · Moderator Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 8172 Location: Sweden

Folding after taking this line is lol bad. If you're not comfortable getting shoved on, don't 3-bet the turn because people are rarely just calling that raise given stack sizes.

MotorHead_87 · Three of a Kind Joined: 15 Feb 2008 Posts: 88

i remember one day i had set over set 3 times within an hour. I always thought the chances of flopping set over set were pretty high. I had the same thing happen 2 weeks later. 2 tiems in 10 hands i had set over set. I stopped playing for two weeks after that. Major tilt.

StevieWard · Message Board Junkie Joined: 12 Jul 2007 Posts: 1561

Of course you can fold a set when they may have a straight or a flush, I think what you mean is on a dry board, or where only like 1 hand beats you, or even someone completing a draw seems unlikely due to the play on previous streets.

Having said that I would have folded here - as you described him as a straight up ABC type, I wouldnt have put him on an OP as he would have surely 3 bet preflop, and before i saw the results i thought about him being on a straight 1st, higher set 2nd (although curious as to why he didnt raise the flop).

phareal15 · Two Pair Joined: 16 Apr 2008 Posts: 65 Location: Cloud 420

I made a pretty good fold this sunday in the Sunday Brawl. I hade 66 in the hole and was UTG. I raised 3 times the BB and 5 ppl called. flop came 568 rainbow. i was first to act and i checked. Bam next player went all in, second player then went all in also, then the third player also went all in. what to do? I had them all covered but if i lost i would be crippled so i folded my set. Player one ended up have AA, player two had A8, and the third player that went all in had 79. man was i happy i folded, because i went on to take second in the sunday brawl.

Starvingwriter · Full House Joined: 03 May 2008 Posts: 174

renegades8 · Posted: Wed May 07, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject:

I know it goes without saying, but try not to be results oriented. Just because you lost this time doesn't mean you should have folded in this spot.

yannick501 · Posted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:42 am Post subject:

personnally I would need one hell of a soul read to fold a set...

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