| Author |
Message |
Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6239
Location: counting my blessings
|
 Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:53 am Post subject: Draw to the low on 6th? |
 |
|
Please critique all streets. On 6th considering how much money is in the pot do you draw to the low? Note that the villain cannot have a low now but it is still possible that he makes a low on 7th.
Schwa is not a very good player. Kinda spewy. Not really any reads on John.
Full Tilt Poker Game #6152272324: Table Caldwell - $1/$2 Ante $0.20 - Limit Stud H/L - 21:22:43 ET - 2008/04/23
Seat 1: bugeater1 ($23.60)
Seat 2: Honest_Rob ($21.30)
Seat 3: myskoxe ($33.10)
Seat 4: FEAR MT NUTZ ($112.50)
Seat 5: schwa ($49.35)
Seat 6: HUGEMC ($26.15)
Seat 7: luvrhino ($57.80)
Seat 8: JohnL17111 ($31.60)
HUGEMC antes $0.20
bugeater1 antes $0.20
schwa antes $0.20
JohnL17111 antes $0.20
luvrhino antes $0.20
Honest_Rob antes $0.20
myskoxe antes $0.20
FEAR MT NUTZ antes $0.20
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to schwa [Qs]
Dealt to HUGEMC [9h]
Dealt to luvrhino [Ks]
Dealt to JohnL17111 [3h]
Dealt to bugeater1 [Qh]
Dealt to Honest_Rob [Ah 5c] [7d]
Dealt to myskoxe [Qd]
Dealt to FEAR MT NUTZ [Qc]
JohnL17111 is low with [3h]
JohnL17111 brings in for $0.25
bugeater1 folds
Honest_Rob completes it to $1
myskoxe folds
FEAR MT NUTZ folds
schwa calls $1
HUGEMC folds
luvrhino folds
JohnL17111 calls $0.75
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to schwa [Qs] [6s]
Dealt to JohnL17111 [3h] [4c]
Dealt to Honest_Rob [Ah 5c 7d] [2s]
schwa bets $1
JohnL17111 calls $1
Honest_Rob calls $1
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to schwa [Qs 6s] [Kd]
Dealt to JohnL17111 [3h 4c] [3s]
Dealt to Honest_Rob [Ah 5c 7d 2s] [As]
JohnL17111 bets $2
Honest_Rob raises to $4
schwa folds
JohnL17111 raises to $6
Honest_Rob calls $2
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to JohnL17111 [3h 4c 3s] [3c]
Dealt to Honest_Rob [Ah 5c 7d 2s As] [Jc]
JohnL17111 bets $2
Honest_Rob ? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
skeeter1114
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 2446
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I do like to play Stud8, and don't think I'm horrible. But, I'm certainly not an expert so I'll offer my opinions, but they may not be correct.
I personally don't like your complete as you will still be drawing. In razz, I think it's a good complete, but not necessarily in Stud8. But, if you're trying to get a large pot or feel like gambling, then that's fine. I personally don't complete unless I have JJ or better.
I think I'm calling 6th street. I think the odds are with you. I counted 11 outs that you had to chop the pot. Calling $2 into a $21 to try and get a low to split the pot means you're getting about 5.5 to 1 on your money. I think it's a worthwhile investment. There would only be one card that could come on the river that could really screw you over, and that would be an ace. If you miss the low, easy fold. If you hit the low, it's a split. An ace gives you a little more to think about, though the way your opponent has been betting, it would be surprising if 3 3's is all he had. But, in your spot, I'm calling. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nimbus
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 1295
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Draw to the low on 6th? |
|
|
| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| Please critique all streets. |
3rd street.
I think a call is better here since your opponents (other than the bringin) have high door cards. You would rather have a bunch of them putting money in contesting the high so you get more value for your low when you make it. On the other hand if you had a bunch of low cards yet to act, you want to raise to get rid of your low competition.
4th street
Okay, your board is showing (xx)7d 2s so that isn't going to scare anyone by raising. Calling is the play here. Side note, what do you put schwa on since he started with a totally dead Queen?
5th street
I actually like your play here. John was the bringin and could have just a pair and a low draw. You want to push out schwa since you could have the best hand and the best draw of everyone. Unfortunately, when john 3-bets he's telling you that you're behind.
6th
Easy call. As someone else said you're getting the right price of $2 into a $21 pot with 11 live low cards and 2 aces that might be a possible winner (out of the remaining 34). BTW, John's action on 5th is telling you that any low you make is good.
7th
call with low, cry call with trips. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6239
Location: counting my blessings
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 5:17 pm Post subject: Re: Draw to the low on 6th? |
|
|
Thanks for the thoughts. The reason I raised on 3rd was because all my opponents had high cards and all Qs were exposed. My only low competition was the bring-in which means he could have anything there so why not raise and try to take the pot down. I don't think any of the queens are usually going to get involved anyway if I just call unless they have some kind of pair in the hole which they will likely play for the raise anyway. I certainly don't want to give the bring-in a free 4th street where I could catch bad and he could catch good and then I have to dump what might be way the best hand. Raising forces him to define his hand a little bit.
| nimbus wrote: |
6th
Easy call. As someone else said you're getting the right price of $2 into a $21 pot with 11 live low cards and 2 aces that might be a possible winner (out of the remaining 34). BTW, John's action on 5th is telling you that any low you make is good.
|
Aren't you contradicting yourself here? How can you say his raise is telling me that any low I make will be good and that I can count Aces as possible outs. He either has trip 3's and a low draw or a full house already with no low draw. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nimbus
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 1295
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: Draw to the low on 6th? |
|
|
| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| nimbus wrote: |
6th
Easy call. As someone else said you're getting the right price of $2 into a $21 pot with 11 live low cards and 2 aces that might be a possible winner (out of the remaining 34). BTW, John's action on 5th is telling you that any low you make is good.
|
Aren't you contradicting yourself here? How can you say his raise is telling me that any low I make will be good and that I can count Aces as possible outs. He either has trip 3's and a low draw or a full house already with no low draw. |
Sometimes I write too fast so it can be confusing. You can never be 100% sure of any hand. Poker is a game of incomplete information. I should have said it was more likely any low you make is good.
Here's why
His 5th street action (3 betting) says his hand is so strong that he's not afraid of aces and 4 to a low . He's also not afraid you have a made low and could be freerolling. Hence my conclusion he already has a made high hand since his board is (xx)343
On 6th, I said 11 cards make your low. I said two additional Aces "might give you a possible winner" and "cry call with trips" since I really don't expect trip aces to be any good.
However, let's take a hypothetical look on 7th. You catch an Ace (making trips). On the end, he bets so the pot is $25 and you need to put $2 more for some chance that you get a piece (or the whole) pot. I think it's an automatic call given the odds you are getting.
I fully expect to call and lose, however you have to be >90% sure of your read to make folding trip Aces correct. Maybe I misread his action when he went wild on 5th. There must be some chance he has a hand like (25)343 or (56)343. Continued betting on 6th and caught a nice brick on the river making trip Aces good for the whole pot? Wouldn't that kind of hand be consistent with his betting pattern? Hence the need to cry call with trip Aces. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6239
Location: counting my blessings
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 8:02 pm Post subject: Re: Draw to the low on 6th? |
|
|
| nimbus wrote: |
| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| nimbus wrote: |
6th
Easy call. As someone else said you're getting the right price of $2 into a $21 pot with 11 live low cards and 2 aces that might be a possible winner (out of the remaining 34). BTW, John's action on 5th is telling you that any low you make is good.
|
Aren't you contradicting yourself here? How can you say his raise is telling me that any low I make will be good and that I can count Aces as possible outs. He either has trip 3's and a low draw or a full house already with no low draw. |
Sometimes I write too fast so it can be confusing. You can never be 100% sure of any hand. Poker is a game of incomplete information. I should have said it was more likely any low you make is good.
Here's why
His 5th street action (3 betting) says his hand is so strong that he's not afraid of aces and 4 to a low . He's also not afraid you have a made low and could be freerolling. Hence my conclusion he already has a made high hand since his board is (xx)343
On 6th, I said 11 cards make your low. I said two additional Aces "might give you a possible winner" and "cry call with trips" since I really don't expect trip aces to be any good.
However, let's take a hypothetical look on 7th. You catch an Ace (making trips). On the end, he bets so the pot is $25 and you need to put $2 more for some chance that you get a piece (or the whole) pot. I think it's an automatic call given the odds you are getting.
I fully expect to call and lose, however you have to be >90% sure of your read to make folding trip Aces correct. Maybe I misread his action when he went wild on 5th. There must be some chance he has a hand like (25)343 or (56)343. Continued betting on 6th and caught a nice brick on the river making trip Aces good for the whole pot? Wouldn't that kind of hand be consistent with his betting pattern? Hence the need to cry call with trip Aces. |
Yes it would and I agree with that. Your language was what I didn't agree with because I don't know that any low I make will be good. Basically that same small chance that trip aces will be good can be applied to a low being no good imo. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nimbus
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 1295
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
Here are some simulations. The formatting is a bit messed up but if you click on the links, it'll bring you to the web page making it easier to read.
This is the ev for the two hands on 6th considering the dead cards.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4590986
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 3h 4c 3s 3c - ah 5c 7d 2s as jc / qs 6s kd 9h ks qh qd qc
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
3s 4c 3c 3h 330175 485486 14514 0 36745 7650 0 0.818
As 2s Jc 5c 7d Ah 12649 14514 485486 0 155311 6609 0 0.182
This is the ev for the two hands on 7th considering the dead cards and you happen to catch an Ace.
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4590983
pokenum -7s8 3h 4c 3s 3c - ah 5c 7d 2s as jc ad / qs 6s kd 9h ks qh qd qc
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 5456 enumerated outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
3s 4c 3c 3h 2730 2730 2726 0 426 0 0 0.533
As 2s Jc 5c Ad 7d Ah 2373 2726 2730 0 0 0 0 0.467
So what does this all mean? This simulation considers in its calculation unlikely hole card combinations like J9 or TJ for your opponent. He obviously isn't going to start with (j9)3 but looking at the results gives you an idea if you're in the right ballpark.
So
Call on 6th.
Call on the river if you make trips |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
david71884
High Card
Joined: 30 Nov 2007
Posts: 10
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: |
|
|
I think you should have called the BI on 3rd st here. You cant really scoop the pot at all here and your worst card is showing. Then on 4th you called after a much better low board with practically no chance to scoop the pot. 5th street isn't a problem when you're there, however i think we've got a crying call on 6th st, then on 7th if we make our low hand. It really looks like were up against a full house after the 3 bet on 5th st. Also, if hes not full now, he can easily improve to a better low to scoop. I feel bad to fold on 6th st. given the 9 big bets in the pot, but we have to improve and pray to god that he doesn't improve as well. I have a feeling we're drawing slim here, so I think the correct play is fold, however i wouldn't fault a call here either.
Razz hands usually don't play well in stud 8 unless the pot is multi way with several players going high.
Last edited by david71884 on Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:00 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6239
Location: counting my blessings
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I didn't bet on 4th street. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
byamamoto1
Bay Area Bidness
Joined: 11 Aug 2005
Posts: 2189
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
i don't think completing here is terrible. a lot of the players are sharing high cards and you'll be able to narrow the field. also incase a person with a suspected low draw stays in the hand and bricks, you'll be able to represent some strength of a high hand. completing represents so many hands that give you another way to win the hand on later streets, imo.
i think the play on all streets is fine. from the hand it looks like the villain is going high the entire time. he waits until 6th street to start raising and puts in a 3 bet against you after you bet what could for all he knows be a set low already. he could have some hand like 65433, which would be a good spot to raise, bure more likely i think he's holding a wired pair, 8's or 9's and pull this play off as well. if you miss, you can fold 7th no problem. if you hit, all it costs is one more bet to showdown. with the pot already being at $20, you're getting 10:1 on your money. i think at this point you can take one more card off and proceed from there. i think if you hit a low in this spot you're good enough times to warrant a call. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
david71884
High Card
Joined: 30 Nov 2007
Posts: 10
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Sorry misread the HH and edited the post.
byamamoto1
he has 3334 showing on 6th. I really doubt that john has wired 88 or 99 in the hole since he didn't reraise preflop. I think its more likely he started with
(54)3, or (42)3, or (A2)3, and is often going to scoop us here. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 6239
Location: counting my blessings
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| david71884 wrote: |
Sorry misread the HH and edited the post.
|
So what are you saying then? You think I should fold on 4th St? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
david71884
High Card
Joined: 30 Nov 2007
Posts: 10
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 1:29 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| I think it should be a fold. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
nimbus
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 1295
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| david71884 wrote: |
| I think it should be a fold. |
A fold ....when? If it's on 4th then it's way too tight. John was the bringin, you can't see monsters on every street.
I can see an argument made for folding 6th but I still think it's a call. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
skeeter1114
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 2446
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| david71884 wrote: |
| I think it should be a fold. |
Disagree
How can you fold on 4th? You're 4 to a low with some backdoor straight draws. So what if the other guy is showing 3-4, you still have to go. While it is ideal to try and scoop a pot, a lot of people forget about the low aspect. It's not like he has 8-7-6-x low where it my be in trouble against draws. His low is enough to call all the way down. If he gets 2 pair or better here (in most cases, obv not this hand) he's going to have a good chance to win at least half the pot. I don't see any reason to fold on 4th here. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
