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_Xceptional · Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:47 pm Post subject: Quiz

We're playing middle limit holdem here . . . You have 6s-6c in middle position and open with a raise. A player in late position calls and everyone else folds, so just the two of you are in. The flop is Kc-7c-7h, making a two-flush on the board. You bet, and he calls. The turn is the 8d. You bet, and he calls again. The last card is the Kh, counterfeiting any semblance of a hand that you may have had. Do you check or bet?

guitarguy178 · Posted: Fri Jan 27, 2006 6:27 pm Post subject:

I would have to check. No point in throwing in any more chips for a hand that I could never win at show down. The smooth calling leads me to believe he has something.

Kloaked Spirit · Royal Flush Joined: 03 Nov 2005 Posts: 869

First of all, you're beating absolutly nothing. The best you can do is tie if it got to showdown. Therefore if you want to win this pot you must bet it. The question becomes can we win this by betting often enough to make this play profitable?

Unless you're seen as a complete maniac, I'd say yes you can win this often enough by betting. He could easily have come along with a draw and fold it, or he may have something that isn't Ax and get rid of it. If you present a tight image at the table, you may be able to get Ax hands to get fold because they might put you on a better 2 pair, or even give you credit for the King.

Go ahead and fold to a raise, but checking here gets you nowhere fast.

Jaconda78 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 4177

You shouldn't have been betting the whole way to start, but negating that point, I say check. You're very unlikely to take down the pot, and you can't beat anything at all.

DevilfishFan · Royal Flush Joined: 09 Sep 2005 Posts: 906

I'd check call. He may bluff his missed draw, and you'll save a bet if he has a monster.

Kloaked Spirit · Royal Flush Joined: 03 Nov 2005 Posts: 869

BOYNAMEDSUE · Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2006 1:47 pm Post subject:

I'd bet, and fold to a raise.

If he was chasing a flush, he'll fold. If he has a low pp he'll fold.

It probably won't work, but it doesn't have to work everytime to be a profitable play. And betting to the end with nothing will only help your image at the table for the rest of the night.

griffinlord · Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2006 3:57 pm Post subject: Re:

bennyprofane · Full House Joined: 28 Dec 2005 Posts: 169

This is not as close a call as it seems. You have to figure out your fold equity. You have five scenarios if you bet, and you have to fiure the likelihood of each:

1. You bet, villain folds, you win $205 pot (the most likely scenario if villain does not have a better hand.)
2. You bet, villain calls, you chop and split for $102.50
3. You bet, villain calls, he has you beat, you lose $40
4. You bet, villain raises, you (foolishly) call, he wins, you lose $80
5. You bet, villain raises, you fold and lose $40 (the most likely scenario if villain has a full house and you're not completely drunk)

Let's assume that it's about 30% likely villain can't beat you--he would have been foolish to call this far if he couldn't, the board pairing almost surely made him a better hand. We'll assume that in most of those cases that you bet and he can't beat you, he folds, giving you more credit than you're due (you tricky devil.) So let's say odds of each scenario are:
1. 20%
2. 10%
3. 20%
4. 10%
5. 40%

So the EV of each over 100 hands would be:
1. 20 X $205 = $4100
2. 10 X $102.50 = $1025
3. 20 X -$40 = -$800
4. 10 X -$80 = -$800
5. 40 X -$40 = -$1600

Your total EV on betting then is +$1925. This is largely weighted by the fact that you get such good return from the pot on very small fold equity. Villain only needs to fold 1 in 5 times to make the play profitable.

A check call is a disaster, you lose the value of fold equity, and the scenarios are such that you will lose money in the long run on a check.

So bet.

Gypsydc · Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2006 11:10 pm Post subject:

I would also bet here. Granted he's been calling the entire way but you have absolutely no chance of winning if you check. You have to bet, maybe he lays it down (I've seen it happen pleny, pot odds or not) and like boynamedsue said...you fold to a raise.

_Xceptional · Posted: Sun Jan 29, 2006 8:42 pm Post subject:

The correcct answer, in my opinion would be to BET here . . . as benny proved, betting is a +EV play and you will make more money in the long run by betting, rather than checking and letting some clown with 9 high take the pot. If the other player had you beat, he probably would have raised the turn, then you can check the river, but I think it's smart to stay aggressive, rather than abruptly slow down on the river and check. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

Tony

deadmoney314 · Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 2:18 pm Post subject: agreed

I can't add anything to the Xceptional analysis already done Wink

I agree with the bet, and have done so--the last time something like this happened I had pocket 6's on a board 977-2-9 and although it was capped preflop, I bet through and faced a similar decision on the river. I bet for the same reasoning already stated and the guy called (probably out of curiousity) and I outkicked him. 44--weird s**t does happen

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