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cubbies760
Next Year Is Here
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 5934
Location: Suburban Chicago
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 Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 1:44 am Post subject: Does anyone know the odds on this? |
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I wonder if anyone's seen quads on 4th street before, and what the odds of this happening might be?
Full Tilt Poker Game #4212565450: Nightly Forum Gathering (31881283), Table 49 - 1500/3000 Ante 250 - Limit Stud Hi - 0:38:09 ET - 2007/11/18
Seat 1: THE BOY666 (20,478)
Seat 2: A2poker33 (25,018)
Seat 3: cubbies760 (39,960)
Seat 4: Ron Wann (20,574)
Seat 5: prettyplease (9,448)
Seat 6: bad beat dad (43,905)
Seat 7: sammyace (8,890)
Seat 8: uwanrumpwitme (5,404)
THE BOY666 antes 250
A2poker33 antes 250
cubbies760 antes 250
Ron Wann antes 250
prettyplease antes 250
bad beat dad antes 250
sammyace antes 250
uwanrumpwitme antes 250
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to THE BOY666 [Js]
Dealt to A2poker33 [2s]
Dealt to cubbies760 [5s 5d] [5h]
Dealt to Ron Wann [Tc]
Dealt to prettyplease [Jh]
Dealt to bad beat dad [8c]
Dealt to sammyace [6h]
Dealt to uwanrumpwitme [3h]
A2poker33 is low with [2s]
A2poker33 has 15 seconds left to act
A2poker33 brings in for 500
cubbies760 calls 500
Ron Wann folds
prettyplease calls 500
bad beat dad calls 500
sammyace folds
uwanrumpwitme folds
THE BOY666 calls 500
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to THE BOY666 [Js] [6d]
Dealt to A2poker33 [2s] [Th]
Dealt to cubbies760 [5s 5d 5h] [5c]
Dealt to prettyplease [Jh] [8d]
Dealt to bad beat dad [8c] [3s]
cubbies760 checks
prettyplease bets 3,000
bad beat dad folds
THE BOY666 folds
A2poker33 folds
cubbies760 calls 3,000
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to cubbies760 [5s 5d 5h 5c] [Qh]
Dealt to prettyplease [Jh 8d] [4c]
cubbies760 checks
prettyplease bets 3,000
cubbies760 raises to 6,000
prettyplease calls 2,698, and is all in
cubbies760 shows [5s 5d 5h 5c Qh]
prettyplease shows [8s Jc Jh 8d 4c]
Uncalled bet of 302 returned to cubbies760
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to cubbies760 [5s 5d 5h 5c Qh] [Ks]
Dealt to prettyplease [8s Jc Jh 8d 4c] [6c]
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to cubbies760 [5s 5d 5h 5c Qh Ks] [Ts]
Dealt to prettyplease [8s Jc Jh 8d 4c 6c] [Qd]
cubbies760 shows [5s 5d 5h 5c Qh Ks Ts] four of a kind, Fives
prettyplease shows [8s Jc Jh 8d 4c 6c Qd] two pair, Jacks and Eights
cubbies760 wins the pot (21,896) with four of a kind, Fives
cubbies760: oops
prettyplease stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 21,896 | Rake 0
Seat 1: THE BOY666 folded on 4th St.
Seat 2: A2poker33 folded on 4th St.
Seat 3: cubbies760 showed [5s 5d 5h 5c Qh Ks Ts] and won (21,896) with four of a kind, Fives
Seat 4: Ron Wann folded on 3rd St.
Seat 5: prettyplease showed [8s Jc Jh 8d 4c 6c Qd] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Eights
Seat 6: bad beat dad folded on 4th St.
Seat 7: sammyace folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: uwanrumpwitme folded on 3rd St. |
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wwcd5215
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 1593
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| Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 1:46 am Post subject: |
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| wow amazing hand, btw good luck in the rest of the tourney |
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Zophar
Moderator
Joined: 26 Oct 2005
Posts: 3290
Location: East Coast
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| Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:33 am Post subject: |
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I've had it happen twice. It's pretty crazy when it does.
I think it's about 1 in a little over 8000 to happen. |
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Strasse
Forum Ego
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3571
Location: Austin, TX
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| Posted: Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:59 pm Post subject: |
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| It's pretty easy to calculate. 52/52*3/51*2/50*1/49= 1/20825 |
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wwcd5215
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 16 Feb 2007
Posts: 1593
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:19 am Post subject: |
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| Strasse wrote: |
| Forum homo |
? |
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Zophar
Moderator
Joined: 26 Oct 2005
Posts: 3290
Location: East Coast
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:29 am Post subject: |
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| Strasse wrote: |
| It's pretty easy to calculate. 52/52*3/51*2/50*1/49= 1/20825 |
There aren't 51, 50 and 49 cards left in the deck though. Isn't it (52/52)(3/45)(2/37)(1/29) ? |
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CompleteDonk
LOLDONKAMENTS
Joined: 18 Mar 2007
Posts: 2183
Location: I are serious cat, internet=serious biz.
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:31 am Post subject: |
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| wwcd5215 wrote: |
| Strasse wrote: |
| Forum homo |
? |
roflmfao |
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Big Slick x13x
Forum Icon
Joined: 18 Jun 2006
Posts: 4115
Location: ROK
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:52 am Post subject: Re: Does anyone know the odds on this? |
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| cubbies760 wrote: |
cubbies760: oops |
This is completely uncalled for. |
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Strasse
Forum Ego
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3571
Location: Austin, TX
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Zophar wrote: |
| Strasse wrote: |
| It's pretty easy to calculate. 52/52*3/51*2/50*1/49= 1/20825 |
There aren't 51, 50 and 49 cards left in the deck though. Isn't it (52/52)(3/45)(2/37)(1/29) ? |
Not at all. First of all, you don't know everyone else's downcards. Second, if you are just talking about having 4 of a kind in 4 cards, there are 51, 50, and 49 cards left. When you calculate the odds of getting pocket aces, its 4/52*3/51, not 4/52*3/44. |
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Zophar
Moderator
Joined: 26 Oct 2005
Posts: 3290
Location: East Coast
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Strasse wrote: |
| Zophar wrote: |
| Strasse wrote: |
| It's pretty easy to calculate. 52/52*3/51*2/50*1/49= 1/20825 |
There aren't 51, 50 and 49 cards left in the deck though. Isn't it (52/52)(3/45)(2/37)(1/29) ? |
Not at all. First of all, you don't know everyone else's downcards. Second, if you are just talking about having 4 of a kind in 4 cards, there are 51, 50, and 49 cards left. When you calculate the odds of getting pocket aces, its 4/52*3/51, not 4/52*3/44. |
After thinking about it again last night, I realized that the equation you used is correct regarding 1st-3rd. However there's something that still bothers me about it, that would be 4th street. I feel that because 3rd street is visible, they would be excluded from the equation on fourth street. So instead of 1/49, 1/41. IDK, it seems like they should be excluded. I think this angle threw me off from the beginning. |
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Strasse
Forum Ego
Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Posts: 3571
Location: Austin, TX
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Zophar wrote: |
| Strasse wrote: |
| Zophar wrote: |
| Strasse wrote: |
| It's pretty easy to calculate. 52/52*3/51*2/50*1/49= 1/20825 |
There aren't 51, 50 and 49 cards left in the deck though. Isn't it (52/52)(3/45)(2/37)(1/29) ? |
Not at all. First of all, you don't know everyone else's downcards. Second, if you are just talking about having 4 of a kind in 4 cards, there are 51, 50, and 49 cards left. When you calculate the odds of getting pocket aces, its 4/52*3/51, not 4/52*3/44. |
After thinking about it again last night, I realized that the equation you used is correct regarding 1st-3rd. However there's something that still bothers me about it, that would be 4th street. I feel that because 3rd street is visible, they would be excluded from the equation on fourth street. So instead of 1/49, 1/41. IDK, it seems like they should be excluded. I think this angle threw me off from the beginning. |
We are calculating hte odds of getting 4 of a kind in 4 cards. This takes into account the possibility that the 4th card will be dead once we are dealt 3 of a kind. Your equation would be used to calculate the odds of getting 4 of a kind in 4 cards, given that the 4th card is not shown on someone elses board. |
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cubbies760
Next Year Is Here
Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 5934
Location: Suburban Chicago
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| Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:30 pm Post subject: Re: Does anyone know the odds on this? |
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| Big Slick x13x wrote: |
| cubbies760 wrote: |
cubbies760: oops |
This is completely uncalled for. |
Normally, I'd agree with you, but if you had been there and observed the bashing that almost every player at the table was dishing out toward me and others, I'm sure you'd condone it.
It's a freeroll, and every high schooler and his brother was in this game. A discreet oops was definately not out of line considering the chat that I had observed during the last hour. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 5365
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 1:10 am Post subject: |
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| I haven't had quads on 4th before, but I have had quads showing on 6th, which is equally as rare. |
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bottlecapthief
Kleptomaniac
Joined: 10 Oct 2005
Posts: 2286
Location: East Lansing, MI
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| Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| I haven't had quads on 4th before, but I have had quads showing on 6th, which is equally as rare. |
Did they still pay you off? |
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Big Slick x13x
Forum Icon
Joined: 18 Jun 2006
Posts: 4115
Location: ROK
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| Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:02 pm Post subject: |
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1 / 17850
52/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 * 1/42(assuming full table)
There is Ten known cards out going into fourth street and you have an equal shot any of the of the remaining 42 cards so you use that number.
I was hoping someone else would post this before me, I gave plenty of time. |
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