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jxokix
Two Pair
Joined: 01 Nov 2005
Posts: 54
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 Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2005 12:48 am Post subject: Odds there is no low |
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| Hi, I was wondering if anyone knew the odds that there is no low hand in a particular hand? LIke maybe if you run the odds program million times. |
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abby99
High Card
Joined: 18 Dec 2005
Posts: 1
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| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 2:59 am Post subject: |
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The odds are 40% that the board will not permit a qualifying low, and 60% that the board will include three unpaired cards 8OB. Let me know if you want to see the math.
abby99 |
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AlexScottUK
Straight Flush
Joined: 30 Jun 2005
Posts: 416
Location: Isle of Man
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| Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 8:59 pm Post subject: Re: |
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| abby99 wrote: |
The odds are 40% that the board will not permit a qualifying low, and 60% that the board will include three unpaired cards 8OB. Let me know if you want to see the math.
abby99 |
This sounds about right - I remember reading something similar in Mike Capelletti's Omaha book a while ago.
But that doesn't necessarily mean that high-only starting hands are particularly good, even though they'll scoop the pot occasionally, since most people play low or vaguely two-way hands and its unlikely that you'll win a huge pot from somebody who is aiming for the other end of the board. |
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Salinar
High Card
Joined: 23 Dec 2005
Posts: 8
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| Posted: Fri Dec 23, 2005 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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| I find what happens is that when you play strong high only hands agressively many people will completely misread your hand. Let's say you hold KQJ10 and you raise before the flop. When the flop comes K 10 2 against another player who has a very good holding (say AK23 for example) you may find yourself in a raising war that you will win in the end 75% of the time for a large pot, split 20% of the time to runner runner low, and lose 5% of the time. If you limp with this hand and only show strength after the flop you won't win nearly as much as the opponent "gets the message". I notice that many people tend to think the only thing a preflop raiser ever holds is AAxx or A2xx. |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2005 5:56 pm Post subject: |
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A few statistics about the "premium" Omaha/8 hand: A-A-2-3.
Before seeing the flop, the chances that:
- The board will allow a low hand: 54.5%
- The board will allow a low, but this hand won't qualify: 7.1%
- This hand will make a qualifying low: 47.4%
- This hand will make a qualifying low which can be beaten: 5.1%
- This hand will make a nut low: 42.3%
So remember before you push all-in preflop with A-A-2-3, there's a 52.6% chance that you will need to win the high pot in order to survive. |
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