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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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 Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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I did a preliminary analysis of 7th street with the intent of trying to find the game theoretical equilibrium percentage for how often he should bluff/check-raise, etc. I did make the assumption that Capper already has K-J low beaten.
Unfortunately the analysis doesn't seem to be very interesting -- the optimal strategy looks to be for Capper to bet out on 7th street no matter what he hits, and for Hero to call if he improves on 7th street (even if he only draws a Queen) and fold otherwise.
If Capper tries to save a bet by occasionally checking 7th street when he doesn't improve, then he needs to also check his strong hands occasionally to make it unprofitable for Hero to bet when checked to. But Capper gives up too much value by checking those strong hands. |
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PARASOFT
Pair
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 42
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:35 am Post subject: |
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If the numbers you gave are correct, then you played it perfectly for 4th,5th & 6th street.
The biggest mistake you made was probably checking on 7th! Probably you should bet if he didn't think too long before checking! It is very unlikely that he will check with the intention of raising if he had you beat. In his mind he has to go through: "OK, I beat him. If I bet he might fold, then I will gain nothing. But if I check, he will think I didnt catch a card, then he will bet. Then I can raise". I don't think many of the players are capable of thinking that. These guys will just bet when they think they are ahead.
By the way, why did you reraised him on 3rd? |
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Tarvin
Full House
Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 169
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:18 pm Post subject: |
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I have a question. I'm admittedly not a limit player, so if someone could spell this out for me, that'd be nice.
After 4th, there was ~$13 in the pot. Three more big bets from him puts another $6 in the pot, and it'll take you $6 to call. In no/pot limit, if it was checked to 7th then your oppenent bet $6, that would make the pot (minus rake) $18 with $6 to call, giving ~3:1 to call. So it wouldn't really be using $6 to call a pot of $24, because by not calling you save the $6. Does this make sense thus far? Is there an error somewhere in my thinking? |
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PARASOFT
Pair
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 42
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Tarvin wrote: |
I have a question. I'm admittedly not a limit player, so if someone could spell this out for me, that'd be nice.
After 4th, there was ~$13 in the pot. Three more big bets from him puts another $6 in the pot, and it'll take you $6 to call. In no/pot limit, if it was checked to 7th then your oppenent bet $6, that would make the pot (minus rake) $18 with $6 to call, giving ~3:1 to call. So it wouldn't really be using $6 to call a pot of $24, because by not calling you save the $6. Does this make sense thus far? Is there an error somewhere in my thinking? |
No, there is no error. However it is easier to calculate EV in the following way:
EV = money you will win - money you will loose
EV = pot(at showdown) * (your chance of winning) - (the money you need to put)
EV = 24$ * chance - 6$
You want to maximise your expected value(which is your avg profit/loss), so it is correct to chase when EV > 0. So
24$ * chance - 6$> 0 => chance >= 6$/24$ = 0.25 => %25.
So in this situation it is correct to chase if your chance is more than 25% which is equivalent to 3:1 odds you mentioned. It's the same thing different ways of calculation. |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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| PARASOFT wrote: |
| In his mind he has to go through: "OK, I beat him. If I bet he might fold, then I will gain nothing..." |
But in this situation, he knows that I know that the best possible hand he had on 6th street was K-4. If I end up with a hand which can beat K-4, there's no way I'm folding on the end. And I end up with such a hand about 70% of the time. If he bets with the nuts, I call 70% of the time, so his extra EV is about +0.7 big bets. If he checks with the nuts, it's very unlikely that I bet out often enough to give him as much EV.
| PARASOFT wrote: |
| By the way, why did you reraised him on 3rd? |
Although it looks like I'm reraising Capper, I'm actually reraising in response to Seat 1 and Seat 7. Seat 1 has flat called twice with a 3 up, and Seat 7 flat called with a Q up. I'm guessing that I'm ahead of both of them -- I have a smooth 7 draw, and both of my hole cards are duplicated on the board which gives my draw a little added strength. The pot is 4-way at the point that I reraise, and it's pretty much a "slam dunk" that I'm better than 25% to win the hand at this point, so reraising is +EV here. Note that I don't particularly care whether Seat 1 and Seat 7 call the extra bets or fold, either way it's +EV to me. |
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