Online Poker Forum at Full Tilt Poker   FAQ   Search    Register   Profile  Log in to check your private messages  Log in  Online Poker Forum - Capped on 3rd, call down to river when obviously behind? Goto page 1, 2  Next          Online Poker Forum Home -> Razz Author Message jbrennen Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 11:57 am    Post subject: Capped on 3rd, call down to river when obviously behind? Full Tilt Poker Game #2915300712: Table Walnut - $1/$2 Ante $0.20 - Limit Razz - 12:35:50 ET - 2007/07/11 Seat 1: Seat 1 ($33.30) Seat 2: Seat 2 ($29.80) Seat 3: Capper ($73.90) Seat 6: Hero ($54.30) Seat 7: Seat 7 ($58.55) Seat 8: Seat 8 ($5.60) Seat 8 antes $0.20 Capper antes $0.20 Seat 7 antes $0.20 Seat 2 antes $0.20 Hero antes $0.20 Seat 1 antes $0.20 *** 3RD STREET *** Dealt to Seat 1 [3c] Dealt to Seat 2 [Ah] Dealt to Capper [4h] Dealt to Hero [Ac 4c] [7c] Dealt to Seat 7 [Qc] Dealt to Seat 8 [6s] Seat 7 is high with [Qc] Seat 7 brings in for $0.25 Seat 8 folds Seat 1 calls $0.25 Seat 2 folds Capper calls $0.25 Hero completes it to $1 Seat 7 calls $0.75 Seat 1 calls $0.75 Capper raises to $2 Hero raises to $3 Seat 7 folds Seat 1 folds Capper raises to $4 Hero calls $1 *** 4TH STREET *** Dealt to Capper [4h] [3h] Dealt to Hero [Ac 4c 7c] [Js] Seat 1 is sitting out Capper bets $1 Hero calls $1 Seat 1 stands up *** 5TH STREET *** Dealt to Capper [4h 3h] [3s] Dealt to Hero [Ac 4c 7c Js] [Jh] Capper bets $2 Hero calls $2 Seat 7: lol *** 6TH STREET *** Dealt to Capper [4h 3h 3s] [Ks] Dealt to Hero [Ac 4c 7c Js Jh] [Kc] Capper bets $2 Hero calls $2 *** 7TH STREET *** Dealt to Hero [Ac 4c 7c Js Jh Kc] [5s] Capper checks Hero checks Anybody play this differently? The only marginal move I see (on my part) is the 5th street call -- a fold there would probably be fine. But with $13.20 already in the pot, and knowing that I can see the river for only $6, I only need to be about 25% to win in order to justify calling the hand down. Plus, I can throw the hand away if I catch bad on 6th and he catches good, so I'm not risking the entire $6 every time. Simulations show that I'm about 26% to win on 5th street against any realistic range of starting hands for Capper. Back to top clussman Message Board Junkie Joined: 19 Jul 2006 Posts: 2806 Location: Austin, TX Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:59 pm    Post subject: I'm assuming the 3-bet that led to the cap on 3rd was to isolate. When he capped you probably gave him credit for three wheel cards. On 4th he either bricked or picked up a 4th wheel card, whereas you definitely bricked with a J. Because 3rd was capped, I'm definitely calling one SB on 4th. I'm folding on 5th. You need runner-runner to make a real hand and the bets just doubled. I don't see the logic in saying "I only have to pay $6 to see the river" when you've only invested $6 at this point. Translation: "I only have to double my investment to play this very, very marginal hand." Sixth street is a perfect example of why to fold on 5th. Now you have another difficult decision. Sure he bricked, but he knows the best you can make now is J-Lo. (There's some good jokes there...) If he doesn't have a three in the hole, he's drawing to one of 22-26 cards to beat you (6*4 +/- two possible outs in your hand or hitting one of the two remaining Js to beat you). We'll take the averaged 24 for our number out of a possible 35 remaining cards to beat you if you improve. This doesn't even account for times when you don't improve. Back to top PokerAA Message Board Junkie Joined: 24 Nov 2006 Posts: 1610 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:21 pm    Post subject: yea, just fold this on 5th... or at least fold it on 6th. he almost definitely has 4 cards to a 6 low or even better and you are just fishing to make a J low. even if you catch, you will still normally lose unless your opponent gets very unlucky. Back to top BOYNAMEDSUE Moderator Joined: 27 Jun 2005 Posts: 7842 Location: Toronto Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:22 pm    Post subject: I'm all for calling on the river for pot odds, but you're obviosly beat here. I would also fold on 5th street here. You gotta think you're behind on 3th street, so when you don't improve on 4th or 5th you gotta bail. There's a good chance capper paired his 3 (I think he started with 3 cards to a 4 low), but he might have also started with A64 or A54. Either way, he's got better than a J low. Back to top clussman Message Board Junkie Joined: 19 Jul 2006 Posts: 2806 Location: Austin, TX Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:33 pm    Post subject: BOYNAMEDSUE wrote: I'm all for calling on the river for pot odds, but you're obviosly beat here. The river was checked so I'm pretty sure the OP won with a better J low against a guy with three 3s. But since we're not playing results oriented poker, the result of this one hand is irrelevant. It shouldn't have gone to showdown. Back to top jbrennen Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 1:40 pm    Post subject: clussman wrote: I don't see the logic in saying "I only have to pay $6 to see the river" when you've only invested $6 at this point. Simple pot odds, really. If I assume that Capper will bet the remaining three streets and I call the remaining three streets, the pot will be up to $25.20, minus $1 rake, for $24.20. So by calling the hand down, I'm risking $6 to win $24.20. It's a neutral (0 EV) play if I'm 24.8% to win the hand. Using the ProPokerTools Razz simulator ( http://www.propokertools.com/simulator/razzSimulationEditor.jsp ), my actual pot equity here depending on what kind of starting hand I give him credit for: Three wheel cards: 29.7% Three card 6 or better: 26.6% Three card 7 or better: 26.1% Three card 8 or better: 26.8% Basically, blindly committing (on 5th street) to call the hand down to the river, regardless of what cards come, is slightly +EV. That doesn't even account for the situations where I'll fold on 6th street to save some money -- situations such as Capper catches a Ten (which is very unlikely to pair him and which still beats my Jack) and I catch a King. So calling down the rest of the hand blind is +EV, but by making smart decisions, I can increase the EV above that. clussman wrote: Sixth street is a perfect example of why to fold on 5th. Now you have another difficult decision. Actually, 6th street isn't a difficult decision at all. Now at worst, I'm only risking $4 to win $24.20, so I only need 16.5% chance to win -- that's a no-brainer given that my opponent only has at best a K-4 low. Back to top PokerAA Message Board Junkie Joined: 24 Nov 2006 Posts: 1610 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:00 pm    Post subject: clussman wrote: BOYNAMEDSUE wrote: I'm all for calling on the river for pot odds, but you're obviosly beat here. The river was checked so I'm pretty sure the OP won with a better J low against a guy with three 3s. But since we're not playing results oriented poker, the result of this one hand is irrelevant. It shouldn't have gone to showdown. he actually probably didnt have three 3s and just got unlucky to brick again on the river... him catching a second 3 would get me to insta-fold after also catching a brick since then it is very unlikely that he has another 3 in the hole and is on a GREAT draw.... jbrennen wrote: clussman wrote: Sixth street is a perfect example of why to fold on 5th. Now you have another difficult decision. Actually, 6th street isn't a difficult decision at all. Now at worst, I'm only risking $4 to win $24.20, so I only need 16.5% chance to win -- that's a no-brainer given that my opponent only has at best a K-4 low. but you don't have that beat and you need to catch a card while he has to catch yet another brick. you are looking for a lot of luck, but i guess you can throw away another $4 for the pot odds.. it's definitely an easier call than on 5th street, but still not a very profitable call. Back to top clussman Message Board Junkie Joined: 19 Jul 2006 Posts: 2806 Location: Austin, TX Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:38 pm    Post subject: You may be putting too much faith into an experimental odds calculator. Unfortunately, I'm not sure how to calculate the odds in this case so I can't refute your numbers. And for the same reason, I went ahead and used the same calculator. I ran through a series of simulations and averaged them and came up with numbers within a fraction of a percentage point of yours. So we probably calculated with the same, or very close to the same, starting range. Basically you're saying it's okay to call because it might be even EV. I've made some scary looking calls before, but usually when it was +EV: -------------------------------------------------------------------- http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?p=231491#231491 In that hand I had trip nines up but I was drawing to a J9 low vs a JT low. http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?p=231497#231497 This hand is sicker and it's why I wanted to know what kind of read you had on your opponent. In this hand it's possible that bigwheel has a wheel on 5th but I call down again with trips showing (same tourney as the previous hand BTW). My read on bigwheel was that he did not have a wheel because he's aggressive when ahead and chose not to 3-bet on 3rd. On 5th I had to weigh the possibility of him having paired one of his hole cards, which is the same thing we have to weigh in your hand but I have the added benefit that I can win in an 8-low vs 8-low situation at showdown in this hand. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Marginal plays are always risky and they're good for discussion. I would have folded your hand on 5th. In a tournament I think it's a no-brainer fold since you can bust when an even EV call doesn't go your way. This is a cash game though, so it's probably open more to interpretation. Back to top jbrennen Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 2:41 pm    Post subject: PokerAA wrote: jbrennen wrote: Actually, 6th street isn't a difficult decision at all. Now at worst, I'm only risking $4 to win $24.20, so I only need 16.5% chance to win -- that's a no-brainer given that my opponent only has at best a K-4 low. but you don't have that beat and you need to catch a card while he has to catch yet another brick. you are looking for a lot of luck, but i guess you can throw away another $4 for the pot odds.. it's definitely an easier call than on 5th street, but still not a very profitable call. Folding 6th street is definitely throwing money away. In the absolute worst situation -- opponent has A-6 in the hole -- we're 21.75% to win the hand. Now assume -- again worst case -- that our opponent is somehow a mind-reader and only bets out on the end if he has us beat. So we're going to either lose $4 or win $20.20 (the opponent denies us the 7th street bet if we win). 21.75% of the time we win $20.20, for a +EV of $4.39, while 78.25% of the time we lose $4, for a -EV of $3.13. So absolute worst case, opponent has perfect cards in the hole and is a mind-reader, calling 6th and 7th streets has +EV of $1.26. The math doesn't lie. The 6th street call is easy and profitable. It's got +EV of at least 0.63 big bets; I'd say that's very profitable. Back to top jbrennen Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 3:16 pm    Post subject: clussman wrote: Marginal plays are always risky and they're good for discussion. I would have folded your hand on 5th. In a tournament I think it's a no-brainer fold since you can bust when an even EV call doesn't go your way. This is a cash game though, so it's probably open more to interpretation. Yeah, in a tournament I fold there every time unless I'm severely shortstacked -- but in that case, I would have simply limped behind on 3rd street. I thought this was an interesting hand because the odds justify (in some cases just barely) every call I made even though it looks ugly. It's a great example of how capping the pot on 3rd street significantly affects the play of the remainder of the hand. If this hand is only completed or only has a single reraise on 3rd street, then 5th street is an easy (and correct) fold for me. But with the capping and the dead money from the two limpers, the whole situation changes dramatically. Back to top sgspecial Full House Joined: 19 Jan 2006 Posts: 153 Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 5:01 pm    Post subject: PokerAA wrote: yea, just fold this on 5th... or at least fold it on 6th. he almost definitely has 4 cards to a 6 low or even better and you are just fishing to make a J low. even if you catch, you will still normally lose unless your opponent gets very unlucky. I think most posters in this forum are giving the capper's hand WAY too much credit by assuming that he has two bikes in the hole, or even two 8 or better cards. We can only read him based on his 3rd st play, since 4th is an automatic bet. He started off LIMPING 3rd st, behind another limper, not a real show of strength. He r/r our hero once the bring-in (with a Q mind you) and the 1st limper (seat 1) call. Clearly seat 1 isn't showing any strength, and the bring-in CAN'T be strong, so the capper could have as bad a 3-card 9, maybe a T and still raise to isolate the hero knowing he's probably ahead of the other players in the pot. When hero 3-bets and the others fold, it's an easy cap for the capper to want to show strength now for one more small bet. I put his range between an (86) and (T7). Back to top clussman Message Board Junkie Joined: 19 Jul 2006 Posts: 2806 Location: Austin, TX Posted: Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:19 pm    Post subject: I don't think so. At $1/$2 I see players all the time who, in a multi-way pot, want to see 4th before deciding action. If they hit a 4th low card then they start betting. Or he could be playing the table and assuming someone else will complete--maybe someone close behind him, allowing him to 2-bet. Either way, he took the opportunity to 2-bet and then cap when he had it. In limit games, the strategy behind your betting is very important. You can't just lead out every time you're strong. Sometimes you have to squeeze. Sometimes you have to limp/raise or check/raise to isolate. I wouldn't read the latter as weakness unless I gave my opponent enough credit to think he'd use a reverse-tell on me. Edit: Results matter and sgspecial is a good Razz player with a proven track record over the last eight months so I may well be wrong on this. Back to top sgspecial Full House Joined: 19 Jan 2006 Posts: 153 Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2007 1:46 pm    Post subject: clussman wrote: I don't think so. At $1/$2 I see players all the time who, in a multi-way pot, want to see 4th before deciding action. If they hit a 4th low card then they start betting. Or he could be playing the table and assuming someone else will complete--maybe someone close behind him, allowing him to 2-bet. Either way, he took the opportunity to 2-bet and then cap when he had it. In limit games, the strategy behind your betting is very important. You can't just lead out every time you're strong. Sometimes you have to squeeze. Sometimes you have to limp/raise or check/raise to isolate. I wouldn't read the latter as weakness unless I gave my opponent enough credit to think he'd use a reverse-tell on me. Edit: Results matter and sgspecial is a good Razz player with a proven track record over the last eight months so I may well be wrong on this. You make a good point, and there are players who will employ such a passive strategy early in the hand, tho most stick with it until they feel confident (either with a made hand or a strong 4-card draw). The key in this situation is that the Q up staying in, and the other player showing weakness, gives the capper a reason to be aggro with the range I read him for but doesn't really threaten his "slowplay" if that's what his strategy was (he may see the others as dead money anyway). I could be wrong in excluding stronger hands, but I'm sure that his range can include the weaker ones. BTW, ty for your edit. Just don't tell the high stakes players, as they may try to avoid me Back to top jbrennen Straight Flush Joined: 16 Aug 2005 Posts: 422 Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 11:37 am    Post subject: sgspecial wrote: I put his range between an (86) and (T7). Not bad... At showdown, his hole cards showed as 8-6-4 (shuffled of course), so unless he's a total donk who capped 3rd street with a pair, then he did start with 8-6 in the hole and then bricked the river. How about the 7th street play on this hand? When should Capper bet out? When Capper checked 7th street, I was pretty sure I was ahead -- I mean he has to know beyond a shadow of a doubt that I'm going to call if I improve on 7th street, and the odds of that are very good. He pretty much has to bet any hand that beats J-7, right? The EV from a C/R attempt has to be less than the EV by just betting out, I think. Should he bet weaker hands as well? Given that, did I miss a value bet on 7th street here? I basically have to pay off a reraise most of the time if I bet out (don't I?), so I think that I'm usually risking 2 bets to win 1 bet. Back to top sgspecial Full House Joined: 19 Jan 2006 Posts: 153 Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:44 pm    Post subject: jbrennen wrote: How about the 7th street play on this hand? When should Capper bet out? When Capper checked 7th street, I was pretty sure I was ahead -- I mean he has to know beyond a shadow of a doubt that I'm going to call if I improve on 7th street, and the odds of that are very good. He pretty much has to bet any hand that beats J-7, right? The EV from a C/R attempt has to be less than the EV by just betting out, I think. Should he bet weaker hands as well? Given that, did I miss a value bet on 7th street here? I basically have to pay off a reraise most of the time if I bet out (don't I?), so I think that I'm usually risking 2 bets to win 1 bet. Well this is a pretty complex issue, as you have noted. Here are the facts that we have to go on however: 1. He knows you're drawing to a smooth J low on 6th, and will call any bet if you hit it on 7th or why would you call on 6th? 2. Capper appears to be aggro when he KNOWS he has an edge, but passive if he's unsure. We're not sure how capable he is of bluffing tho. So, if capper makes a T8 or better, he's sure he has the nuts. If he leads out, you will call him if you make your J and fold otherwise. You'll catch your J about 2/3 of the time, so a lead bet is worth 2/3BB to him. If he checks, what's your line? If you're the kind of player who will then "value" bet your J, and call his c/r then he wins 2BB every time you catch. You may also bluff when you don't catch, but fold to his c/r, gaining him 1BB 33% of the time as well. If you're aggro enough to do both, then a c/r attempt is worth 1 2/3BB to him, putting this play way ahead of betting out! Even if you're only going to "value" bet or bluff 50% of the time, a c/r is better for him. A good player will realize this, and a bad player may try for a tricky play and do it anyway. What does that imply for you? Again it depends. If you're inclined to bet when he shows weakness, and then call when he raises to avoid being bluffed then you're going to come out -EV by betting because he'll have the nuts >50% of the time. Even if you could fold to his raise with 100% certainty that you're beat, you still come out behind by betting if he's just a likely to try for a c/r as he is to lead out (and you sure don't want to risk that big pot by making a bad fold). So the best answer is this: you knew you were way behind but called 6th st to try to win a large pot, prepared to call 7th as well. He gave you a chance to see showdown cheaper than you figured, and may be setting you up for a trap where you're really forced to pay him off. Take the free showdown and be happy with your pot Back to top Display posts from previous: All Posts1 Day7 Days2 Weeks1 Month3 Months6 Months1 Year Oldest FirstNewest First         Online Poker Forum Home -> Razz All times are GMT - 5 Hours Goto page 1, 2  Next Page 1 of 2 Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group

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