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PARASOFT
Pair
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 42
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 Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 6:08 pm Post subject: Did I play this like a fish? |
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Full Tilt Poker Game #2665248032: Table Seven Hills - $1/$2 Ante $0.20 - Limit Razz - 15:03:49 ET - 2007/06/14
Seat 1: elsousio ($32.50)
Seat 2: PARASOFT ($63.45)
Seat 3: ccarpenter ($19.25)
Seat 4: hooper75 ($41.55), is sitting out
Seat 5: kango19 ($40.90)
Seat 6: DoughyJoey ($45.40)
Seat 7: Texoma ($11.40)
Seat 8: cmnehring ($20.85)
cmnehring antes $0.20
DoughyJoey antes $0.20
ccarpenter antes $0.20
PARASOFT antes $0.20
kango19 antes $0.20
Texoma antes $0.20
elsousio antes $0.20
*** 3RD STREET ***
Dealt to elsousio [9d]
Dealt to PARASOFT [4c 2c] [8d]
Dealt to ccarpenter [Ad]
Dealt to kango19 [8h]
Dealt to DoughyJoey [As]
Dealt to Texoma [9c]
Dealt to cmnehring [Jc]
cmnehring is high with [Jc]
cmnehring brings in for $0.25
elsousio folds
PARASOFT calls $0.25
ccarpenter completes it to $1
kango19 folds
DoughyJoey calls $1
Texoma folds
cmnehring folds
PARASOFT calls $0.75
*** 4TH STREET ***
Dealt to PARASOFT [4c 2c 8d] [3s]
Dealt to ccarpenter [Ad] [5h]
Dealt to DoughyJoey [As] [Qh]
ccarpenter bets $1
DoughyJoey folds
PARASOFT calls $1
*** 5TH STREET ***
Dealt to PARASOFT [4c 2c 8d 3s] [7c]
Dealt to ccarpenter [Ad 5h] [6d]
hooper75 has returned
ccarpenter bets $2
PARASOFT calls $2
*** 6TH STREET ***
Dealt to PARASOFT [4c 2c 8d 3s 7c] [Kh]
Dealt to ccarpenter [Ad 5h 6d] [Ac]
PARASOFT checks
ccarpenter bets $2
PARASOFT calls $2
*** 7TH STREET ***
Dealt to PARASOFT [4c 2c 8d 3s 7c Kh] [4s]
PARASOFT checks
ccarpenter bets $2
PARASOFT calls $2
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ccarpenter shows [7h 4h Ad 5h 6d Ac 2s] 6,5,4,2,A
PARASOFT mucks
ccarpenter wins the pot ($17.90) with 6,5,4,2,A
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $18.65 | Rake $0.75
Seat 1: elsousio folded on 3rd St.
Seat 2: PARASOFT mucked [4s 4c 8d 3s 7c Kh 2c] - 8,7,4,3,2
Seat 3: ccarpenter showed [7h 4h Ad 5h 6d Ac 2s] and won ($17.90) with 6,5,4,2,A
Seat 4: hooper75 is sitting out
Seat 5: kango19 folded on 3rd St.
Seat 6: DoughyJoey folded on 4th St.
Seat 7: Texoma folded on 3rd St.
Seat 8: cmnehring folded on 3rd St. |
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nohandnodraw
Four of a Kind
Joined: 19 Oct 2005
Posts: 338
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| Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2007 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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I wouldn't really say you played this hand like a fish, but you may have overvalued your hand a little. Assuming ccarpenter was a tight player, the completion on third street should have sent an alert to you that your 8-high may have been behind from the beginning. After fifth street, you really should have gotten the hint that your 8-high was beaten or that he had a much better draw; the bet on sixth really suggests a made hand and the only thing you are, realistically, going to beat (given the cards dealt) is a bluff.
Personally, I would have laid down the hand after fifth street because the 8-high is looking pretty marginal in that situation. After sixth street, you have seven outs to draw to a better 7-high than he is representing (one A, three 6's, and three 5's). If you assumed ccarpenter was still drawing on sixth street, you would have seen that ccarpenter had, approximately, a third of the remaining deck to outdraw your 8-high. Once again, this is tough to say because we don't know how ccarpenter was playing up to this hand.
Last edited by nohandnodraw on Sat Jun 16, 2007 2:25 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2007 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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You played it fine. You just ran into a better hand.
The only real decision point here is 5th street. Once you call there and he bricks on 6th, you're pretty much committed to check-call the hand down.
Without a read on the opponent, it's impossible to say which is better EV, folding 5th street or calling 5th street. Even if it's +EV to call there (like it would be against a loose player), it certainly is the play which leads to much higher variance. If you're playing within your bankroll, the variance shouldn't be a problem. |
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aMurderofCrows
Pair
Joined: 10 Jun 2007
Posts: 28
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| Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2007 11:33 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm pretty new to Razz, but I'd have laid down on 5th street - my thinking is always about the high card and the gap - you have 8/7. Even if he has an 8 in the hole he'd have 8/6 most likely. And he probabaly has better than that so now you are facing 6/5 with, at best, a 7-maybe something good to come... |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 1:04 pm Post subject: |
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| aMurderofCrows wrote: |
| I'm pretty new to Razz, but I'd have laid down on 5th street - my thinking is always about the high card and the gap - you have 8/7. Even if he has an 8 in the hole he'd have 8/6 most likely. And he probabaly has better than that so now you are facing 6/5 with, at best, a 7-maybe something good to come... |
The thing is, if you give him credit for only playing hands with three unpaired cards 8 or lower, the chance (for this particular hand) is actually better than 50-50 that he paired up on 4th or 5th street. There are 171 possible combinations of down cards he could have started with, of which 93 contain a 5 or a 6.
So under those criteria (plays three cards to an 8, keeps betting his strong board even if he pairs), you're actually in decent shape on 5th street more often than not (about 54% of the time). And since you're getting about 2-1 pot odds to call the hand down all the way to the river, calling here is usually the right move, IMHO. |
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skeeter1114
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 2419
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| Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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| I am folding on 5th street, with an 8-7 low. If you call, that's not horrible, but when your king hit, that may have been a time to lay it down, and then when you pair on 7th street, that could have been a fold. I'm not real experienced in Razz, but I think you fold there unless you think he's bluffing or if he has been real loose in the prior hands. |
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250hondarider44
Straight
Joined: 31 Oct 2006
Posts: 109
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| Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 11:04 am Post subject: |
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Id fold on 5th street. Although your hand wasnt awful, It still was most likely beat by your opponents with what he had showing. You didnt play this like a fish, but you more less overvalued the strength of your hand. No BiGgIe!!  |
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PARASOFT
Pair
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 42
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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| jbrennen wrote: |
| aMurderofCrows wrote: |
| I'm pretty new to Razz, but I'd have laid down on 5th street - my thinking is always about the high card and the gap - you have 8/7. Even if he has an 8 in the hole he'd have 8/6 most likely. And he probabaly has better than that so now you are facing 6/5 with, at best, a 7-maybe something good to come... |
The thing is, if you give him credit for only playing hands with three unpaired cards 8 or lower, the chance (for this particular hand) is actually better than 50-50 that he paired up on 4th or 5th street. There are 171 possible combinations of down cards he could have started with, of which 93 contain a 5 or a 6.
So under those criteria (plays three cards to an 8, keeps betting his strong board even if he pairs), you're actually in decent shape on 5th street more often than not (about 54% of the time). And since you're getting about 2-1 pot odds to call the hand down all the way to the river, calling here is usually the right move, IMHO. |
Today, I was checking old topics and I've seen in couple of posts that you have mentioned that the chance of someone having a pair is more than 50% on 5th street if he has 3 <= 8 cards showing and if we assume he started with 3 distinct <=8 cards. I think you have a mistake in your calculation, according to my calculations its much lover, about 40%, which makes a huge difference in EV calculations.
The situation is really interesting, because if he doesnt have a pair your chance of winning is about 0% in most cases. And if he has a pair, you are about %53-%47 favorite.
According the my calculations and experience, folding is the correct decision here unless the opponent is loose who might not start with 3 cards <=8. |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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| PARASOFT wrote: |
| Today, I was checking old topics and I've seen in couple of posts that you have mentioned that the chance of someone having a pair is more than 50% on 5th street if he has 3 <= 8 cards showing and if we assume he started with 3 distinct <=8 cards. I think you have a mistake in your calculation, according to my calculations its much lover, about 40%, which makes a huge difference in EV calculations. |
I would never say that it's more than 50% in general.
But in this particular hand, it is, because his 4th street and 5th street cards are 5 and 6, and you haven't seen any other 5s or 6s anywhere. None on the board, none in your own hand.
Now let's say that he did start with 3 cards 8 or under, and hasn't paired yet. The cards of interest include:
2 : 3 left
3 : 3 left
4 : 3 left
7 : 3 left
8 : 2 left
There are 78 possible combinations for his down cards, and they break out like this:
Two wheel cards: 27 ways
7 + wheel card: 27 ways
8 + another card: 24 ways
So roughly 1/3 of the time, you're way behind his 6-5 low.
The other 2/3 of the time, you're behind him by 1 card with 2 to come.
So, analyzing it from the top, and rounding off the numbers:
1/2 of the time = your 8-7 is ahead, you're anything from even money to a big favorite
1/3 of the time = you're on a one card draw to beat him
1/6 of the time = you're almost dead in the water
The way I look at it, 5/6 of the time, I have a playable hand here on 5th street, and 1/6 of the time, I don't.
In the 1/6 of the time where I'm totally dead, I'm probably going to lose 3 big bets, for a total -EV of 1/2 BB.
The other 5/6 of the time, can I average a +3/5 BB expectation to counter the -EV from the times where I'm really dead? (Remember, that +3/5 BB includes your share of the more than 3 BBs that are already in the pot.)
I think that mathematically, a call here is easily justified. |
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PARASOFT
Pair
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 42
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 2:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Your calculation seems to be correct. I don't know where I made the mistake though... |
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kcstoltz
Royal Flush
Joined: 27 Jun 2007
Posts: 578
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:30 pm Post subject: |
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| no offence but i think youre mistake was under estimating youre opponent with the 2 doller bet and the65a showing i would of assummed he hit but if he is prone to bluffing that would be correct play |
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jbrennen
Straight Flush
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 422
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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| kcstoltz wrote: |
| but if he is prone to bluffing... |
The thing is, "decent Razz player" implies "prone to bluffing".
If the opponent doesn't bet out there with (X-X)-A-5-6 -- regardless of his down cards -- he's playing awfully weak tight, and almost certainly making a huge mistake. If he's ahead, he needs to bet out to build the pot and drive out any marginal draws. If he's behind, betting out gives him the best chance to win the hand.
So I don't think you can read anything into the fact that he bets out on 5th street. It's almost an automatic move for him.
The only solid read you have on the opponent's play is that he completed with his Ace door card after an 8 limped in, and with an 8, Ace, and 9 still to act. Typically, it's rare to try a total steal behind a limper, so you have to give him credit for a hand, but given the other upcards, it's quite likely that he may have completed with any three card 8. By completing, he does his best to make sure that the other Ace door card doesn't come into the pot unless he has a decent hand. And a three card 8 with the 8 hidden is a better hand than a three card 8 with the 8 showing... |
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Big Slick x13x
Forum Icon
Joined: 18 Jun 2006
Posts: 4226
Location: ROK
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:07 pm Post subject: |
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I'm sure everyone that said they'd definitely fold on 5th street are thinking purely results oriented. If you want better advice about the decisions cut the HH off where you're making the decision and leave the results out. I saw nothing wrong with the way you played, I would have open raised on 3rd and just called down but other then that looks good, just ran into the better hand.
You could have tried raising on 5th and folding if he 3 bet you. Then you'd save yourself a bet in the long run. But that's if you know he only 3 bets the made hand. If he does just call your bet you can figure you may be able to check behind on 6th to get a free card for your improvement, a chance to maybe pick off a bluff on 7th, maybe a free showdown. The more I look at it it seems raising on 5th would be the best play IF you think he'll either A.) 3 bet a better made hand or B.) call and go for a check/raise on 6th, and you can check behind. |
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kcstoltz
Royal Flush
Joined: 27 Jun 2007
Posts: 578
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| Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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| my opinion was not result oriented everyone that nos me says im so tight my a$$hole squeaks. that just the way i play nice and safe or close to it youre never safe in poker |
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