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henrybloogada · High Card Joined: 28 Sep 2005 Posts: 19

So its early (level 1, 10/15 blinds) in a NLH tournament with 1200 entrants.......I still have my original stack of 1000 for the most part.....the pay out structure in this tournament is setup so that only first place gets rewarded.....nothing for second (it was a freeroll points tournament) .....There are 3 limpers ahead of me and I'm in the small blind with K10 suited in clubs.....I decide to just complete my blind and take a flop, the big blind checks.....flop comes A-2-10 with 2 clubs.....the big blind bets out the minimum (15), first limper folds, second limper calls, and third limper raises to 500, a hefty raise into me.....this guy was new to the table, he had just been switched, and had a sizable chip lead of 2700 or so when he arrived....so here I am sitting in the small blind with 14 outs (flush draw plus a pair) which gives me about an even money chance to improve by the river....

my first inclination was to fold because I was sure he had atleast an ace, if not 2 pair or a set, making me at best a coin flip....however I felt he was raising too much to have a hand as strong as 2 pair or a set (you normally want action with these hands)........and with so little in the pot up till his raise, i doubted his holding of a flush draw or some kind of draw, reasoning he would atleast want to make his hand before risking so much to win so little.....so my final read on him was some kind of A-x, like a-7 or a-9, that he was desperately trying to protect and hopefully win the pot on the spot......can't blame him with so many fools out there drawing to anything...

after reasoning all this out.....I remembered that the tournament was only going to award 1st place....and since there were over 1200 entrants, and I figured to have 14 live outs making me a coin flip to improve by the river, I decided to take the leap here for a coin flip and pushed over the top with my remaining 990 or so chips....I had 9 clubs, 2 tens and 3 kings i could have caught to win the pot....my read happened to be dead on.....he flipped over A-9os....unfortunately his hand held up.

1) was this a bad play at this stage of the tournament? should I have maybe waited for a better spot, or just gambled and gone for first?
2) the deciding factor here was the fact that ONLY 1st place out of 1200 entrants were going to get rewarded.....otherwise I probably would have gotten away from this hand so early in a tournament, provided there was a deeper payout structure.

how many people would readily take a coin flip like this? provided they happened to make the correct read on their opponent's holding like I was fortunate enough to do that time, even though luck didn't bail me out...

is there anyone who gladly takes these coin flips in hopes of doubling up early, despite whatever payout structure is in place?

after the flop, what were the odds? was it not close to 50 50?

comments, analysis, critique, flames....welcome

goomlah · Posted: Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:48 pm Post subject: You got it right

14 outs on the flop is even money to hit. Considering the payouts, you're pretty much obliged to go for it, and I'm sure most of the party poker people would do so as well.

CheckRaiseFo · High Card Joined: 29 Nov 2005 Posts: 9 Location: Dover, DE

Dude, it's a freeroll. You have nothing to lose. Your reasoning was absolutely correct, meaning you had the pot odds to make the call, and the best part is, you had nothing to lose!

I would not have made that call in a money tournament, especially that early.

But with one place paying and a huge field to wade through, you need a healthy chip stack to have any chance at winning. Yours was exactly the kind of situation that can lead to a win.

You made the right call.

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