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Checkster · High Card Joined: 14 Nov 2005 Posts: 3 Location: So. Cal.

"Probabilities, Odds, Statistics? Phooey! Pokersites Fixed? Not Likely
Perpetual Bad Luck? ???"

OK, I've got to unload this somewhere, and here�s as good a target as any...
After playing months online, it just "felt" wrong. I was getting sucked out on at what seemed a disproportionate rate. "OK..OK...I'm just remembering the bad beats" I'd tell myself. Finally I needed to know, so I started keeping a record (meticulously, very meticulously) of the heart & soul of No Limit Holdem.
The Showdown..All In...
I tracked one particular type of situation. If I went all in, or called an all in, I logged if I had the best or worst hand when we turned up our cards. And of course logged the final result. This is the defining moment of NLH. Gather and process all the information you have, incomplete as it is. Make a decision and act on it. Watch & wait. Pros & pundits tell you to get your chips in the middle of the table with the best hand. OK. Good.
My results to date: ( I haven�t counted the total games played to compile these results, but I estimate about 65,000 over about 8 months).
Situations played 1054
Best starting hand (at showdown) 735
That's about 70% I start out best. 2 out of 3 times I read the hand right. Don't know what's considered good to the moneymakers, but it seems at the very least a $ winning %.
Total overall wins 431
Doink! That's about 41%. I get run down a lot! Not a little, not some of the time. Sucked out on most of the time. Check these #s.
In the 735 hands where I start out best:
Wins 332
Loses 403
45% wins. Showdown with the best cards, and lose most of them.
An important note...I'm tend to be a tight player. Much tighter than books, blogs and forums recommend. I'm not all in with something like a small pair vs 2 over cards very often. That's usually such a small edge to the pair it's really a coin flip. Don't like to risk all my chips at almost even money. I find better odds (yugh, that word). But I still get run down. I haven't tracked to exact detail (I'm not a complete masochist!), but I estimate I average a 65-70% statistical (eeks! another word) edge when the cards are turned. Trips, top 2 pair, big A or K pair after the flop at the very least. If my estimate is close I should have won about 477.
In the 319 hands when I start worst:
Wins 99
Loses 220
31% wins. Sucking out is not my friend. Well, I'm supposed to lose those. At least this fits the probabilities (last bad word). Interestingly, I've checked the percentages about every 100 hands, and the never varied by more a point or 2. Also, all ins after the river aren't included. If I'm in with the worst of it, that's my fault. These stats started with me wanting to see if I really was getting run down as much as it seemed.

A few more specific #s. (Started tracking after the first couple hundred hands). Results with "premium" hands...don't blink...poker face hands.
A,A - 14 wins, 21 loses
K,K - 16 wins, 22 loses
Q,Q - 8 wins, 24 loses (****)
J,J - 5 wins, 5 loses (?)
A,K - 20 wins, 28 loses
Remember, I play tight. I don't jerk my chips in just cause I see A,A in the hole. I always play the hand. I'm usually in with the best. But **** happens.
Don't get me wrong...this isn't a "woe as me" tale (well, sort of). I certainly don't feel sorry for my self. I love the game. I'll keep playing. In fact I'm finding a game as soon as I post this. I'm an eternal optimist (aren't all gamblers?). Despite all this I'm actually ahead of the game..but not much. Granted I play tiny stakes, and making $ is always great, but it's the playing I can't get away from. I really don't consider myself unlucky...but when I go all in, the other players get lucky!

Can anyone explain how this can be? I can't...

SKS_Poker · Posted: Tue Nov 15, 2005 1:40 am Post subject:

One of the things I'm curious about between your overall wins/losses, your wins/losses with the best hand, and your wins/losses with the worst hands is that you haven't stated how many players you were up against in these multiple scenarios, for surely you know that even with one more player than just heads up drastically changes your win percentage chances unless you're a huge favorite to win.

If you could figure these numbers out, separate them, then re-calculate, I think you'll find that your numbers for overall wins/losses will become more understandable that you're at about a 41% win percentage overall as well as in your statistics on how often you win when you go in with the best hand.

Let me know how it turns out if you ever get to figure it out, I'm curious to know your findings and specific numbers.

Jaconda78 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 4177

Well, first of all, your sample size is TINY. Also, what precisely are you recording? Who had the best hand at the start of the hand, or who had the best hand when the all in occurred (that is, if the flop is TTT and the money went in on the flop, do you consider AT to be the best hand or AA?)? This is a very important difference. However, I must admit, I am very pleased to see somebody at least attempt to show numerical evidence for their claim.

The reason I haven't been posting my own poker tracker stats to refute this type of statement is that I simply don't have enough hands (around 6,000 at FT and 18,000 at party poker).

However, here are MY stats (from party poker, simply because that's where I have more hands logged). I have wins in percents, not numbers, as that's the way poker tracker records it:

AA: 85 times, win%=83.53%
KK: 69 times, win%=79.71%
QQ: 82 times, win%=62.20%
JJ (not a premium hand, by the way): 75 times, win%=64.00%
AKs: 45 times, win%=51.11%
AKo: 162 times, win%=63.58

My sample size is also far, far, FAR too small to use for real analysis, but my numbers are right where they should be. The main problem I have with your numbers (besides not being quite sure what they're recording) is that there's simply not enough of them.

Also, keep in mind - the average winning hand in Hold 'Em is two pair - people tend to vastly overvalue top pair, especially when they hit it with AK.

hunter879 · High Card Joined: 15 Nov 2005 Posts: 1

I was wondering what kind of poker tracker software you use to keep your stats?? Thanks

Jaconda78 · Message Board Junkie Joined: 06 Jul 2005 Posts: 4177

asw63 · Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:16 am Post subject:

I too play only "tiny stakes" mostly 5/10 cent NL holdem and PL omaha although I do play some higher stakes at times. Ive played (online only) for 2 years or more (how many thousands of hands I cant say) for about 18 to 20 hours a week. one thing Ive learned is that at the small stakes tables at least half the players are very bad and will call with crap and yes they do suck out, but if you get our money in with the best hand you WILL win more times than not. Labor Day weekend (sunday) I was allin preflop with KK three times...LOST ALL FREAKING THREE to 77 (7 flopped), 1010 (10 K 10 hit), and AJ and A7 (6 8 9 10 Q hit the board). Most of my beats if I'm allin are "bad beats" but in the long haul you'll still make money if you get in with the best hand. Just remember everybody has bad runs where it seems like you cant win no matter what you just need to keep your losses as low as poss. and make up for it when you hit that rush.

Checkster · High Card Joined: 14 Nov 2005 Posts: 3 Location: So. Cal.

Thx for the input, gang...
Here's some feedback:

SKS_Poker - Very rare for me to be in with more than 1 other player. Unless I've got the nuts or very close, I won't go if there's two in ahead of me. No records kept on that, but even 5% would surprize me. I don' t think it would have an appreciable impact on the total win %.

Jaconda78 - It's who had the best hand when the all in occured. That is really what I wanted to see. I know the situation sample is small (1054), but it's taken 60,000 to 70,000 hands (at least) to get there. "the average winning hand in Hold 'Em is two pair"... true enough, but the absolute value of a hand (pair, trips, etc.) doesn't come into play here. It's the realitive value for each situation that counts. If I'm a 2-1 favorite in a given type of hand, I should win at (or near) that rate. My "all in with the worst" situations are formful... if I'm 2-1 dog in those hands, my stats bear that out, I lose about 2-1.

I appreciate all the help, and I'd love to hear some more!

D.

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