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deadmoney314
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 16 Jul 2005
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 Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:17 am Post subject: Shut down or valuetown? |
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Villain 52/0.8/0.5
Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 4d 4s
3 folds, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, Button calls.
Flop: 2d 5h th (7.5SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, Button folds.
Turn: 7d (4.75BB, 2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.
River: ah (6.75BB, 2 players)
Hero ??
What do you do and why? |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 4308
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:28 am Post subject: |
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Given villain's loose style, I'd probably just check-call here if you really think your 4s are good. Chances are a guy that loose will chase a 4-flush to the river, and that just hit. He'd also be the type to play A-high to the river and suckout against you.
I think anything that calls you has you beat, so leading is bleeding in this case. |
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deadmoney314
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:47 am Post subject: |
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| I like the thought you are putting into this IA. What if I told you villain's WTSD was 52.16%? (I didn't know this at the time but I probably had a feeling that villain was major calling station in addition to loose passive) |
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IABoomer
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Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 4308
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:25 am Post subject: |
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Even if he's a loose passive calling station and you put him on a random hand, Pokerstove says you're still 45/55 against a random holding here. Yeah he might show KQ, but if that's the case, you're not making anything on your bet anyway. If he has any part of this other than the 2, you've lost a bet you didn't have to on a pretty ugly board.
I still say check-call if you're curious. |
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deadmoney314
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 2:02 am Post subject: |
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| Nice analysis, it went check check QJo. |
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bigwheell
Royal Flush
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Posts: 830
Location: North Dakota
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:44 am Post subject: |
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Easy to comment on this one after IABoomer's replies...
Check call the river for me too. Sometimes a check will induce a bluff from the BB in this situation. I think with his stats, you have to call one bet. |
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Riddim
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Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8062
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:52 am Post subject: |
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| I think I'd be inclined to check/fold this river considering how passive he is and the fact that we only beat bottom pair and overs without an ace. If he's been calling down with those hands he'll probably check and hope we were bluffing. |
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deadmoney314
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:07 am Post subject: |
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Agreed Riddim, I'm laying down 4s here to someone with .5 AF that decides to bet the river (as much as I love pot odds). Someone with those stats isn't looking to be tricky and gamble on bluffs and in fact prefers to showdown. I could see villain checking an A here simply being afraid that one pair would not be good enough. I could probably find an example where someone with similar stats checks the nuts on the river after a lot of action simply because they somehow shut down mentally.
It is fun to play with players that passive, seems like you always get the best of situations. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 8062
Location: Sweden
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:12 am Post subject: |
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| deadmoney314 wrote: |
| It is fun to play with players that passive, seems like you always get the best of situations. |
If you run a bit bad it can get extremely frustrating though. Like when they go into calldown mode with top pair or even a bigger overpair than yours simply because you showed some strength, and you end up doing the betting for them with the 2nd best hand. |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3455
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| I check/call here. I understand there's an argument for the check/fold and I would agree, except for the fact it's a button raise, and might just be trying to steal with 2 high cards like KQ, KJ. The turn also potentially opens a couple of gutshot straights. I agree that leading out here is a bad idea, as you're probably beat, but 8 to 1 is just that little bit too tempting for me. |
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deadmoney314
Message Board Junkie
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| deadmoney314 wrote: |
| It is fun to play with players that passive, seems like you always get the best of situations. |
If you run a bit bad it can get extremely frustrating though. Like when they go into calldown mode with top pair or even a bigger overpair than yours simply because you showed some strength, and you end up doing the betting for them with the 2nd best hand. |
QFT, but I will have the better hand most of the time with my lower vpip so I'll trade the frustration with long term winnings. I'll frequently be charged less for my holdings when behind than had I been up against a stronger opponent as well (this might be conjecture admittedly). |
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Big Slick x13x
Forum Icon
Joined: 18 Jun 2006
Posts: 4238
Location: ROK
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
| except for the fact it's a button raise, |
button folded on the flop. It's the BB that called the three bet in the hand with you.
I'd lean toward check / fold because of that fact. But since he's loose passive I might pay off for the info. It'd be a feel thing with me like it always is. I wish I could go into as much depth as the other responses but I don't play enough limit and I don't have PT and use a lot of those numbers.
Edit: DM can you talk to me on aim sometime. mine is the same as my name here.
Last edited by Big Slick x13x on Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:53 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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fire_eyes_2k
The Burn Card
Joined: 18 Jan 2006
Posts: 3455
Location: London
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| Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2007 8:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Big Slick x13x wrote: |
| fire_eyes_2k wrote: |
| except for the fact it's a button raise, |
button folded on the flop. It's the BB that called the three bet in the hand with you. |
Good point Slick, my bad. That kind of changes my outlook here and I'm wondering what hands I can beat that have got this far. And all I can think of is 33. KQ is only going to play themselves into this much trouble once in a hundred times. I guess I have to agree with the check/fold |
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bigwheell
Royal Flush
Joined: 27 Apr 2006
Posts: 830
Location: North Dakota
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| Posted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:30 am Post subject: |
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| deadmoney314 wrote: |
Agreed Riddim, I'm laying down 4s here to someone with .5 AF that decides to bet the river (as much as I love pot odds). Someone with those stats isn't looking to be tricky and gamble on bluffs and in fact prefers to showdown. I could see villain checking an A here simply being afraid that one pair would not be good enough. I could probably find an example where someone with similar stats checks the nuts on the river after a lot of action simply because they somehow shut down mentally.
It is fun to play with players that passive, seems like you always get the best of situations. |
At least 5 times this last week, I have had sponges come alive on the river, when I lead the betting out of position and I checked the river, or I took a free card on the turn after I 3-bet or raised the flop. All 5 times, I picked off a sponge bluff. These were all situations like you portrayed above when you have a probable best hand, but he will not go away. You make no mention of him being spongelike, but I think you have to take that into consideration.
The Ah may have made many hands for him, but I think the pot is too big to fold for one more bet. Maybe my 5 pickoffs were a bit unusual in frequency, but they stand out in my mind...
Anyone have comments about sponge players. Maybe it should have a dedicated thread where we can talk strategy about them... |
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deadmoney314
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| Posted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 10:39 am Post subject: |
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BW, sounds like a good thread starter and an immediate point to make is that you can't always trust the stats when an inviting steal comes anyone's way in poker, and the river bluff is probably the most tempting and overused play that shouldn't work.
I like the analogy of the sponge but i think there is a big difference in a sponge that has stats like above vs a sponge 50/x/1.0+, the former being the type that is only confident enough to bet in extremely transparent situations when they are ahead. I rarely see these types stick their head out especially on the more expensive streets and if I were to guess its because they are the type to not want to rock the boat or be embarrased for betting a possible loser.
Maybe call teh thread "Valuetown"? |
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