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terminal111
Two Pair
Joined: 24 Dec 2006
Posts: 56
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 Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:35 am Post subject: continuation bet hell |
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The road to hell is not paved with good intentions.
It's paved with continuation bets. 
This is my conclusion.
I would describe my play as fairly average, post fish status. I'm very slowly creeping up my BR. I win some games and then donk off money in others. (micro limit playing)
My newest flaw is the continuation bet.
EG: I raise PF with pocket 10s MP. My standard 3 1/2 - 4 xbb takes in a limper or two.
(I like to keep my continuation bets the same. 3/4 of the pot to avoid being predictable. I'll bet the same on a bluff and the same if i hit strong. Works well, i get paid well if i hit.)
After 9 million attempts, I hit a set on the flop with a flush draw sitting there.
my cont bet is called and I think flush draw. If the flush doesn't hit, I'm putting in a pot sized bet on the turn (you want it, you pay for it). i try practising my reading ability. If someone is calling a 3/4 flop cont bet and a pot size bet on turn, I would put them on a made hand.
Then the flush hits the river (or the turn - which i will still bet with some outs for the boat - and fold the river if i miss and get strength shoved at me) and i am no longer surprised when they turn over a jack high flush.
How can i plug this in my game or are people always going to pay anything for a flush draw - how do I read them?
Are my continuation bets crappy?
Am I over estimating my post fishy status? |
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fixing tires
Four of a Kind
Joined: 03 Aug 2006
Posts: 281
Location: ON, Canada
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| Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:21 am Post subject: |
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| Personally, if I know someone is looking for the flush, I'll overbet the pot, and really try and price them out of it, especially with a strong hand such as a set. I want to make it very expensive for them to stay in the hand, because chances are they are not going to make their flush, and they are not getting the correct odds to stay in the hand. This is a good way to protect your hand, especially if the pot is already big, and you want to try and take it down. |
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HuJwang
Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006
Posts: 6378
Location: Halifax, NS
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| Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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| fixing tires wrote: |
| Personally, if I know someone is looking for the flush, I'll overbet the pot, and really try and price them out of it, especially with a strong hand such as a set. I want to make it very expensive for them to stay in the hand, because chances are they are not going to make their flush, and they are not getting the correct odds to stay in the hand. This is a good way to protect your hand, especially if the pot is already big, and you want to try and take it down. |
i think it should be stressed to not overbet the pot unless you have a good read and feel reasonably sure your opponent has a draw and not a made hand. overbetting every single time there's a flush draw is a sure way to get trapped a lot.
my continuation bets are almost always about 2/3 of the pot if there is draw possibility on the board, and 1/2 if the board is relatively uncoordinated. even though i'm changing my bet sizes, they are being changed relative to the board cards and not to my hand, so they don't really give away any information.
remember in a ring game you make money from people taking bad odds. if they'll call 2/3 of the pot for a flush draw, you're making money (unless you pay them off when they hit, which gives them correct implied odds). also when you bet smaller, someone with a good hand is more likely to raise you, giving you the information you need to get out. if you overbet, a good hand will more likely try to trap you.
for a tournament/sng things are a bit different, especially when the blinds become big enough that any reasonable continuation bet will be a significant amount of your stack. in that situation i think pushing is a good option.
anyway i'm just a micro limit player as well so i could be way off on some of this stuff. but this is how i've been approaching it and i think i've been relatively successful with it lately. |
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CitizenCain
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 23 Oct 2006
Posts: 2022
Location: Behind a huge stack of chips.
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 12:52 am Post subject: Re: continuation bet hell |
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| terminal111 wrote: |
The road to hell is not paved with good intentions.
It's paved with continuation bets.
This is my conclusion.
I would describe my play as fairly average, post fish status. I'm very slowly creeping up my BR. I win some games and then donk off money in others. (micro limit playing)
My newest flaw is the continuation bet. |
Wrong. Your flaw is betting at someone who won't fold when you don't have a hand.
I'm sure you've heard the saying "never bluff a sucker," right? If you know the guy's a dumbass who can't fold, don't bet at him unless you know you have a better hand. This means: don't bluff at him, and don't continuation bet or semibluff, since you know he's not going to fold. That said, some micro players can fold. Those are the ones you want to continuation bet, bluff or semi-bluff. Because they're capable of folding. Play the man, not the cards, even at the micros. |
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jjpregler
Forum Pro
Joined: 17 May 2006
Posts: 1449
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| Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2007 8:02 am Post subject: |
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I can see a few problems with your play and I think I can help. I wrote two mini essays recently, one to get out of my short term losing slide and a second on tips to win in the micros. Playing in the micros is a different breed in itself. People do not understand pot odds. They see a flush draw and see $$$$$. Woohoo! He bet 15x the pot, but I got a flush draw, I'm calling. Think Homer Simpson playing in the micros.
But anyway, here are links to my mini-essays:
http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?p=213459
http://pokerforums.fulltiltpoker.com/viewtopic.php?p=211839 |
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Confundus
Pair
Joined: 12 Oct 2006
Posts: 37
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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Without reading all the replies, Dan Harrington says that he usually only c-bets with one other player in the hand, rarely with two. The odds of them both folding aren't good enough.
Also, your c-bets will be more effective when an ace or face card flops, atleast they can believe you might have had big cards. If they are all rags you have to convince them you have an overpair and a lot of times they'll just call and make you fire another bullet.
Also, for those who want to overbet the pot and force players out that may be on a draw, this is absolutely wrong. You are FORCING them to play correctly by folding. Instead you want to bet as much as you think they will call. 3/4 seems to be pretty close here, micro players do love to chase flushes. You just have to let them overpay and be a man and fold when you think they hit. You can fold everytime the draw hits and still come out ahead. If they limp/called and check/called you had better give them credit for the draw. If they made a small bet less than half the pot at any point you should also suspect a draw. If he comes out raising for the very first time when a draw hits, again he has it. etc etc etc.
With no real evidence that he has a flush or straight i'd probably go ahead and pay them off with a set as they could have top pair fairly often, oblivious of what else might be out there.
In a rush, gotta go, you get the point. |
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mistaken69
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 06 Sep 2005
Posts: 1689
Location: taking up smoking
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| Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 10:39 pm Post subject: |
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| fixing tires wrote: |
| Personally, if I know someone is looking for the flush, I'll overbet the pot, and really try and price them out of it, especially with a strong hand such as a set. I want to make it very expensive for them to stay in the hand, because chances are they are not going to make their flush, and they are not getting the correct odds to stay in the hand. This is a good way to protect your hand, especially if the pot is already big, and you want to try and take it down. |
i disagree....a pot 2/3's of the pot to pot sized bet is enough to price out a flush draw...and lets not forget...we have a set, we want this guy in this pot. |
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craigo6x
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2870
Location: Cursing the relievers in the bullpen
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| mistaken69 wrote: |
| fixing tires wrote: |
| Personally, if I know someone is looking for the flush, I'll overbet the pot, and really try and price them out of it, especially with a strong hand such as a set. I want to make it very expensive for them to stay in the hand, because chances are they are not going to make their flush, and they are not getting the correct odds to stay in the hand. This is a good way to protect your hand, especially if the pot is already big, and you want to try and take it down. |
i disagree....a pot 2/3's of the pot to pot sized bet is enough to price out a flush draw...and lets not forget...we have a set, we want this guy in this pot. |
Agreed, a set of 10s is a very strong hand. He correctly puts the caller on the flush draw and bets enough each time to give the chaser incorrect odds. Unfortunately, at low levels, odds mean nothing. Calling $3 on a draw into a $6 pot is meaningless. The only thing I would have done different is make pot size bets on both the flop and turn. In this hand it would have cost you, but get your money in with the best. Let the chaser make the mistake. In the long run (whenever that might be) you make money. |
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mistaken69
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 06 Sep 2005
Posts: 1689
Location: taking up smoking
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject: |
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| who cares. they're getting the wrong odds and making a losing play in the long run (barring implied odds of course). we have a set and we put them on a flush draw for whatever reason. We price them out but barely, there's value there. |
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terminal111
Two Pair
Joined: 24 Dec 2006
Posts: 56
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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I've put a lot of thought into this situation and feel this is what i should have done:
Flopped a strong hand with a PF raiser and caller behind me. My bet was too small. I should have raised over the pot to make it fairly obvious I had a strong hand (betting into two aggressive players) and make people pay to follow.
Alternatively, my other option and probably the best one should have been to check raise. I'm fairly confident that PF raiser would have bet and if called by the drawer, I could raised a large amount or simply just move all in. If I got no action and the Jack of hearts hit on the turn, I could have checked and then reevaluated my options and most likely fold or call an amount, with the correct odds seeking the boat.
I have read your articles before JJP and they are both excellent.
There is no doubt I played this hand incorrectly and the good thing about losing like this is that it forces you to not make this mistake twice.
Live and learn...
Thanks for all the advice, gang. Invaluable as always. |
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mistaken69
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 06 Sep 2005
Posts: 1689
Location: taking up smoking
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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| don't overbet. and i still like betting mroe than c/r. |
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