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NobAzn · Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 3:01 pm Post subject: Determining your % for drawing

I read an article by David "devilfish" Ulliot, when he has a draw like a four card flush draw on the flop, he multiplys his outs by 4 then subtracts 2 to get his odds of hitting it on the turn, but if he misses he multiplys his outs by 2 then adds 2 to get his odds on the river.

M=outs
(turn) M x 4 - 2 = %
(river) M x 2 + 2 = %

so if you have Kd Qd, and the flop comes 10d Jd 2s you would have 15 outs for a straight/flush (9 diamonds + 6 cards that will make your straight.) Then the formula would be:

15 x 4 - 2 = 58% of getting your winning card on the turn
15 x 2 + 2= 32% of getting your winning card on the river

I used this formula during live play in my head and it helped me a lot, it isn't as complex as other formulas' but it can help new players. Comments are appreciated, and other formula's are great.

gho · Straight Flush Joined: 20 Feb 2006 Posts: 391

Yes it's called the 2/4 rule. I've seen different variations. One variation is subtracting by 1 instead of 2. About the same anyways (actually I don't even both with subtracting as 1 or 2 % isn't going to make much of a difference). It's a quick way of approximating your odds. Unless you can calculate permutations quickly in your head, then this is probably the closest your going to get (other than actually memorizing charts).

_Xceptional · Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 6:46 pm Post subject:

The Rules of Four just says that for calculating your percentage of whether or not your out will hit on the turn or river, you take your outs and multiply them by four. 8x4=32%. Now if your out hasn't hit on the turn, then you take your outs, and multiply them by 2. 8x2=16%.

There's no subtraction involved. And as your outs increase, the % skews a bit more, but overall, it's very close, +/- 2% doesn't matter that much.

dmoore1998 · Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:03 pm Post subject:

Yeah, the addition/subtraction part makes it a little closer to realistic, but if you just go with the 2/4 rule you're going to know the odds. If it's really that close that the addition/subtraction makes a difference then it probably doesn't really matter what you do either way. Also you need to be figuring in implied odds anyways which really negates any little adjustments like +/- 2%.

BOYNAMEDSUE · Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2006 7:09 pm Post subject:

The 2/4 rule is good.

Clonie Gowan wrote a 'Tips From the Pros' email on it. It's what I use. Her PLO email was also good....and she's a blast to play with. Clonie rules.

But she's a bit of a tease. She told me I had roughly a 1/1,000,000 chance of getting with her. I think she was trying to distract me so she could get all my chips.

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