Online Poker Forum - Can you fold a set here? (Part II)

clussman

Following up on FE2Ks post.

This hand was from Sunday's FTOPS ME. I'm comfortable with my play but I'm comfortable in a vacuum, so lets put it out there for discussion. This hand is early in the 2nd hour. I had a free double-up in the first hour with set over set on an unconnected board. In this hand I'm facing a very connected board and two overly aggressive opponents.

Full Tilt Poker Game #7690311962: FTOPS Main Event (54558458), Table 13 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:18:03 ET - 2008/08/17
Seat 1: OUSOONERS24 (2,736)
Seat 2: vvvvvv6 (5,342)
Seat 3: WeezyFBabby (4,835)
Seat 4: Virgil369 (5,575)
Seat 5: drossxyu (4,128)
Seat 6: Caddieup (10,430)
Seat 7: clussman (9,790)
Seat 8: Gladi2222 (4,944)
Seat 9: Sp1k3z (6,230)
drossxyu posts the small blind of 40
Caddieup posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to clussman [Js Jc]
clussman raises to 240
Gladi2222 folds
Sp1k3z folds
OUSOONERS24 folds
vvvvvv6 folds
WeezyFBabby calls 240
Virgil369 folds
drossxyu folds
Caddieup calls 160
*** FLOP *** [Jh Td 8h]
Caddieup checks
clussman bets 600

Decided to bet 80% of pot because the board is so draw heavy. I'm looking to make my opponents pay to draw out.

WeezyFBabby has 15 seconds left to act
WeezyFBabby raises to 2,240

This raise represents half of his stack so he's pot committed.

Caddieup has 15 seconds left to act
Caddieup has requested TIME
Caddieup raises to 10,190, and is all in

Caddie had done this move a lot already but because of the board and the fact that Weezy is already pot-committed, I'm giving him credit for a hand. I figured Weezy for either a straight or a flush draw but I don't really know. His play had been erratic. For whatever reason I was convinced Caddie had woken up with a lesser set. I'm not putting anybody on Q9 or 97.

clussman has 15 seconds left to act
clussman calls 8,950, and is all in
WeezyFBabby calls 2,355, and is all in
Caddieup shows [9c 7c]
clussman shows [Js Jc]
WeezyFBabby shows [Qh Ah]
Uncalled bet of 640 returned to Caddieup
*** TURN *** [Jh Td 8h] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [Jh Td 8h Kh] [3h]
Caddieup shows a straight, Jack high
clussman shows three of a kind, Jacks
Caddieup wins the side pot (9,910) with a straight, Jack high
WeezyFBabby shows a flush, Ace high
WeezyFBabby wins the main pot (14,545) with a flush, Ace high
clussman stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 24,455 Main pot 14,545. Side pot 9,910. | Rake 0
Board: [Jh Td 8h Kh 3h]
Seat 1: OUSOONERS24 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: vvvvvv6 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: WeezyFBabby showed [Qh Ah] and won (14,545) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 4: Virgil369 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: drossxyu (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Caddieup (big blind) showed [9c 7c] and won (9,910) with a straight, Jack high
Seat 7: clussman showed [Js Jc] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 8: Gladi2222 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Sp1k3z didn't bet (folded)

Okay, so I was wrong about the straight. Plugging the hand into a hand calc though shows the straight was still the dog at 25% to win. I was 35% and the broadway/nut flush draw was 38%.

1. Did I make the right decision to call all-in with top set on that board?

If I fold I still have a strong stack. If I call and win I have a monster stack (5th out of 4,000 players). I don't think I can lay the hand down there but maybe I'm wrong. I'm a firm believer in not letting the size of the tournament/prize pool affect your play but I'd be lying if I said I didn't think about how much easier it would be for me to play with a monster stack.

2. Knowing their hands in advance, does that change your decision to call or fold?

Riddim · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 2:52 am Post subject:

Moved to the MTT forum. Please don't ever fold here. This is literally the worst case scenario (except the 97 being 97dd instead if you want to be nitty) and you still have 35% equity. The straight is actually the only hand getting his money in significantly bad considering that it's a 3way pot. His equity is only 25%.

Edit: NVM, being up against 2pair and a straight is worse. This is still an easy call though.

Strasse · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:00 am Post subject:

Don't fold here. It's unlikely you are beat, and if you are, you still have plenty of outs.

clussman · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject:

Good, thank you for the confirmations.

Like I said, I was comfortable with my play--I just needed a little verification. Lately I've been looking around and all of the great online players that have come up in the last couple of years have had buddies that they discussed hands with constantly whereas I've mostly just read a few books and looked at a few things in PT. I certainly haven't used PT extensively or kept book or anything but, even though my time is more limited than ever, I'm trying to get more serious about my game, which means doing a lot more analysis.

I might just open a more general thread for HHs tonight. I have several that I know I've either misplayed or could have played differently in marginal situations.

craigo6x · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject:

I'm calling, then taking a bat to my monitor.

mathman1115 · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:55 pm Post subject:

I'm all in here every time. Crappy hand though. 97 are you kidding me?

Riddim · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:31 pm Post subject:

sig1561 · Straight Joined: 12 Mar 2007 Posts: 116

Riddim

sig1561 · Straight Joined: 12 Mar 2007 Posts: 116

Lol, that was profound. And productive. No wonder you're a mod. Note the sarcasm. I usually don't need to point out sarcasm but I' worried you may not understand.

What I'm saying is a re-raise and an all in from the BB who, by the way, has an M=80 and literally could hold ANYTHING seeing as it was only a 2XBB raise to him means trouble. Had it just been the re-raiser hell yea I'd go all the way. But a re-raise allin (of a stack of 10K) over a re-raise OVER a strong raise on the flop (should I remind you 80%?). Cmon. You have to suspect straight. How do you not?

When I post a hand for analysis I want the truth, not suck-up from my buds. Sorry.

Honesty is the best policy. And you, Riddim, are rude and don't add the productivity of this post. If you want to run out others who disagree with the rest of everyone than you make for a terrible mod.

Siggy

edited: accidently said villain was SB when he was BB

mathman1115 · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:07 pm Post subject:

sig1561 · Straight Joined: 12 Mar 2007 Posts: 116

Lol, only two hands beat him, yes. I don't care if "only x hands beat me" when I see evidence that one of X hands are out there, what are you gonna do?

1)Believe the BB got lucky with his 97 or...

2)Do that awesome move I call the "omg there's only two hands that beat me so I'm calling!"
(-no offense to the OP, I'm not mocking you, just using sarcasm to prove a point)

With your logic you're telling me if you have KK preflop, raise decent, someone raises, someone raises more, someone else raises and then that someone's mom raises all in finally, that you're going to call "cause theres only one hand that can be you". Lol. Good math, Mathman.

Siggy

Siggy

sig1561 · Straight Joined: 12 Mar 2007 Posts: 116

Oh and about that 33% to outdraw? Lol, check out this wager. Push your 9k in for a 33% chance of winning 25K. My math tells me its a losing wager.

Siggy

Riddim · Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject:

Sig,

Basically, all the assumptions you make in that post are off one way or another. I thought that was implied when I said it was terrible so I didn't really know what else to say. If you want my "productive" input on the hand, read my first post in the thread.

live4freerolls · Banned Joined: 23 Nov 2006 Posts: 2588 Location: Grindin

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