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st6truckie Message Board Junkie
Joined: 28 Dec 2007 Posts: 1994
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:11 am Post subject: |
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| He has the Hammer. |
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alex j beeson Message Board Junkie
Joined: 15 Jul 2007 Posts: 1252
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 11:18 am Post subject: |
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| st6truckie wrote: |
| He has the Hammer. |
Well, it is a freeroll..... |
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dl_m0nk Flush
Joined: 04 Dec 2007 Posts: 132 Location: Columbus, Ohio
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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| alex j beeson wrote: |
| And he raised 8x the BB and is a tight predictable player!! What were you thinking? AJ-AK? He has a big pocket pair for christ sake.... |
+1 tight predictable player who raises almost 7x the BB? obv its JJ to KK, at the lowest 10's. Holding mid pair you always wanna see a flop cheaply. u could call a min raise from LP or if you're getting a discount from the BB that won't make a big dent in your stack. Other than that insta-muck. |
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Mikah Banned
Joined: 10 Jul 2008 Posts: 208
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:12 pm Post subject: He only goes all in preflop with the best,otherwise he raises,if gets reraised all in fold |
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""remember the guy is playing in a very extremely routine predictable fashion.
He only goes all in on the absolute best hands.He folds to reraise all ins.
So based on how he plays,he if he raises but yet doesnt go all in preflop he has A 10 thru A K at best,because if he had better he would have gone all in preflop instead of raising it.
Thats how routine and predictable he is.
And when he raises a hand,if someone reraises him all in,he doesnt call unless he has better than A 10 thru A K,and most of the time facing a reraise all in of his raise,he folds.
Thats how routine and predictable he is.""
This is a special situation.I agree with u guys,in normal play,no way in hell would I play pocket 7's either calling or reraising all in.
But this is that once in a lifetime situation where he only goes all in preflop with the absolute stone cold goods,and if has less than that he raises.
And if his raise gets reraised all in he usually folds like 99% of the time
this very predictable pattern shows that if he goes all in preflop he probably has JJ thru A A A K suited
if he raises according to his very predictable pattern he probably has A 10 thru A K or pocket 2's thru 7's
and if he raises and gets reraised all in preflop by a tight player like how I was that tourney,he usually folds 99% of time.
So with that very predictable pattern that would be 1 time in a lifetime where I would either call him,or reraise all in.
But any other time against any other player no way in hell would I reraise all in,and I probably dont call and probably fold.
and based on this logic wouldnt at least some of u play it the same way.
Mike D H |
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alex j beeson Message Board Junkie
Joined: 15 Jul 2007 Posts: 1252
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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| meh, if someone raises preflop just to be re-raised all in and forced to fold a few times then that player at some point is gonna make a stand. Besides, switching gears is standard play, esp. if you are getting too predictable. |
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HuJwang Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Posts: 6393 Location: Halifax, NS
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Camby24 wrote: |
| I think you should receive a banned a hammer for this post bc it makes no sense to me!!!! |
lol ironyaments
| alex j beeson wrote: |
| And he raised 8x the BB and is a tight predictable player!! What were you thinking? AJ-AK? He has a big pocket pair for christ sake.... |
this is all you need to know OP.
I think you're overestimating how predictable some players are. The other thing is that you need to be right so often for this to be good. If he does have a big pair, you're crushed at 20% to win, meaning you lose on average ~1800 or so chips. If you're right, all you win is the 500 chips in the pot. You need to be right almost 80% of the time for this to be good, and that's ignoring the fact that he might have AJ-AK and call anyway, putting you in a coinflip situation.
If you are really sure enough of your read to make this play, then why are you posting it? We weren't there, we don't know how you got this read, so there's no real way for anyone to judge if it was right or wrong. I think it is most likely wrong though. |
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Mikah Banned
Joined: 10 Jul 2008 Posts: 208
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:33 pm Post subject: Its not just the 500 chips on the table |
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Its not just the 500 chips at the table which is what I would get if he folded.
but if he calls,even if I am in a coinflip against A K I would still be about 51% to win his 3000 chips.
Also lets say he folds.And then he shows his A K he folded,and I show pocket 7's
Now lets say he's pissed that he has been pushed around.
and then lets say a number of hands later he again raises up to 400 with A K hand,and I reraise him all in with K K or A A,he is gona be pissed on tilt for being pushed around,and remember I reraised him all in with 7 7,and so will call my KK A A reraise all in,thus giving me again a chance to win his whole stack.
Sucker plays like this work against tight predictable players because u know when u can push or bully them with lesser hands,and then they think yor crazy when yor not,and then they call u with a lesser hand against yor greater hand next time.
Also I have on very rare occasion played similar players who I played similarly,who when I did reraise all in with say 66 77 88 99,they folded A K
and showed me they folded A K.
And then when I went all in next time with the goods,they called with A K and I either doubled up thru them or took all their chips.
Most of the time I have been right,once in a while I have been wrong,but the times I have been right make up for the times I have been wrong.
Mike D H |
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StevieWard Message Board Junkie
Joined: 12 Jul 2007 Posts: 1536
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:47 pm Post subject: Re: How would u read this situation and what would u do in this situation |
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| Mikah wrote: |
Ok this is in a 500 dollar freeroll at Bodog.I had about 3300 chips and this other guy had bout the same amount.The blinds were 30/60
This other guy was very tight.He folded a lot preflop and he only raised marginal hands to medium str hands in late position.And he only raised all in preflop if he had the stone cold goods.
He was very routinely predictable.
So how would u play this hand and what would u think he had?
He raises in middle position up to about 400 preflop.I have 77 hole cards.
What do u think he has and what do u do?
my thoughts were: Since he only pushes the goods all in preflop,and is routinely predictably very tight,I thought he had A J thru A K,because if he had better than A J thru A K,he would have pushed all in preflop,based on his very predictable routine tight pattern of doing that.
So because of this I thought,since he has folded some or a few of his raises to reraise all in's before,I thought if I reraise all in with my pocket 7's,he might probably fold,rather than risk his stack on a coinflip,and that even if he were to call I would probably be in a coinflip with me having the better of it with my pocket pair 77's vs his overcards A J thru A K preflop.
So with that in mind I lost after making that move,play,and him calling my all in,and after the hand was over.And after that he called my move, based on his routine predictable very tight play, very stupid.
So what would u think he had and what would u do if u had been playing instead of me?
I will tell what he had after a bunch of u respond with what u would do.
Mike DH |
I would fold and wait for a beter spot instead of calling a raise that big with 77. |
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HuJwang Forum Blight
Joined: 20 Aug 2006 Posts: 6393 Location: Halifax, NS
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: Its not just the 500 chips on the table |
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| Mikah wrote: |
Its not just the 500 chips at the table which is what I would get if he folded.
but if he calls,even if I am in a coinflip against A K I would still be about 51% to win his 3000 chips.
Also lets say he folds.And then he shows his A K he folded,and I show pocket 7's
Now lets say he's pissed that he has been pushed around.
and then lets say a number of hands later he again raises up to 400 with A K hand,and I reraise him all in with K K or A A,he is gona be pissed on tilt for being pushed around,and remember I reraised him all in with 7 7,and so will call my KK A A reraise all in,thus giving me again a chance to win his whole stack.
Sucker plays like this work against tight predictable players because u know when u can push or bully them with lesser hands,and then they think yor crazy when yor not,and then they call u with a lesser hand against yor greater hand next time.
Also I have on very rare occasion played similar players who I played similarly,who when I did reraise all in with say 66 77 88 99,they folded A K
and showed me they folded A K.
And then when I went all in next time with the goods,they called with A K and I either doubled up thru them or took all their chips.
Most of the time I have been right,once in a while I have been wrong,but the times I have been right make up for the times I have been wrong.
Mike D H |
Most players aren't folding AK to a shove. I don't even know why you seem to think that calling a shove with AK is a bad play. It usually isn't. Besides, taking this big a risk hoping to get someone a little on tilt in the future just isn't worth it. The odds that you actually end up having AA when they have AK (or some similar cooler situation) are just incredibly low.
There's something to be said for showing aggression to get a reckless image, but risking 3000 chips to win an 8x raise from a very tight player isn't just a ploy to get a reckless image. It actually is reckless. |
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Camby24 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 01 Mar 2008 Posts: 1736
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Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| Camby24 wrote: |
| I think you should receive a banned a hammer for this post bc it makes no sense to me!!!! |
lol ironyaments |
Argh reread that today and was hoping no one would catch it, I was a little tipsy writing it! Well played |
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