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2Devils
High Card
Joined: 18 Feb 2007
Posts: 4
Location: Bethesda, MD
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 Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: I used twodimes.net from Andy Bloch's advice in "No Limit by the Numbers" IS THIS POSSIBLE |
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Hi,
I used twodimes.net to calculate the following odds and I just think something must be wrong. I got sucked out on all in on the flop and I just wanted to see how bad my luck was. Maybe this is a bad calculator, but Andy Bloch recommended it. You tell me
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4825722
pokenum -h ac tc - as js - 6c 6s /
BOARD is 6h 7h ad
Holdem Hi: 962598 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Tc 243356 25.28 693504 72.05 25738 2.67 0.266
As Js 332787 34.57 604073 62.75 25738 2.67 0.358
6s 6c 360717 37.47 598212 62.15 3669 0.38 0.376
What I don't understand is that both of the players with Aces need runner, runner to win the hand. They need 7, 7 ... A J...A 10... 10, 10 ... J, J... A, 7... or 9, 8 which is what came. Granted I was still the most likely to win, I'm completely surprised I wasn't well over 50%. Remeber also, there's only 1 A, 2 7s, 3 10s, and 3 Js....
One last question... Why isn't A-10 more favored to win than A-J since he has the straight possiblility? |
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IABoomer
Moderator
Joined: 29 Oct 2006
Posts: 3910
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| Posted: Thu Jun 19, 2008 5:19 pm Post subject: |
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Not sure how TwoDimes came up with that scenario. Pokerstove gave me:
| Code: |
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
2,768,449 games 10.315 secs 268,390 games/sec
Board: 6h 7h Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 02.752% 02.42% 00.33% 67038 9143.50 { AcTc }
Hand 1: 00.988% 00.66% 00.33% 18213 9143.50 { AsJs }
Hand 2: 96.260% 96.26% 00.00% 2664911 0.00 { 6c6s }
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which is much more like what you'd expect.
It looks like it ignored the board cards when making the calculation and based the results on pre-flop action only, although I couldn't say why.
Edit: I see what happened. You put the board cards in the "Dead cards" blank, which is why it didn't figure the odds after the flop. Follow this link:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4825823
and you'll see the difference. |
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BladeBoyle
Pair
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
Posts: 21
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| Posted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: |
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im doing this in my head not a program so consider that
Ac Tc has 3 possible ace outs and 3 T outs making that 6 and 9 possible flush outs 15x2+2=32%
As Js has 3 possible ace outs and 3 j outs and 9 spades 15x2+2=32%
this is the weird one
6s 6c has 2 main outs 6% to draw better here only one as its a set. so that 1x2=2+1= 3% add that to 34% you get 37% but can be 90 ish% ahead and the end
the suits dont matter in this hand so one 6 and three 7s 4 outs ummm
but the other hands have more real outs to draw better that game might make my blood pressure go up jjj and ttt is possible
and yes i count the aces they the player dont know there gone
you want to fight about the math i did go for it my head hurts i think i had a stroke tomuch math bottum line more better outs to draw to but the 666 is ahead ace T is much like JJ always called by better and is weaker then you think |
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