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Honest_Rob Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 5849 Location: counting my blessings
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: 44 unimproved in 3bet pot checked to the river |
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Villain is 16/9/4(60)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
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CO: $9.75
BTN: $9.65
SB: $24.85
BB: $25.50
UTG: $4.30
UTG+1: $10.35
UTG+2: $25
MP1: $25
Hero (MP2): $26.15
Pre-Flop: 4 4 dealt to Hero (MP2)
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, SB raises to $2.75, BB folds, Hero calls $1.90, BTN folds
Flop: ($6.60) T 8 5 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($6.60) 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($6.60) 2 (2 Players)
SB bets $6.60, Hero ? |
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drtre1987 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2018
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Fold to the 3 bet. Fold OTR. |
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Honest_Rob Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 5849 Location: counting my blessings
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: |
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| drtre1987 wrote: |
| Fold to the 3 bet. |
why? |
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drtre1987 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2018
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| You basically have to stack him every time you hit your set to justify that call. And judging by the way this player played his hand in a 3 bet pot where he only fires one barrel on the river, you're not going to be able to do that everytime. |
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Honest_Rob Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 5849 Location: counting my blessings
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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| drtre1987 wrote: |
| You basically have to stack him every time you hit your set to justify that call. And judging by the way this player played his hand in a 3 bet pot where he only fires one barrel on the river, you're not going to be able to do that everytime. |
We don't know how slow he's going to play it PF though. Judging by his stats I'd say it's likely he has a big hand here and we win a big pot often when we hit a set. I think he's probably on QQ+, AK here. There is also a player still in the pot. He's short but at worst he's already contributed dead money to the pot and at best he'll contribute more, really the only threat from him is reraising but I don't think that's very likely. |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 7724 Location: Quitting smoking
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| And you think you stack him every time or close when he has AK? |
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Honest_Rob Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 5849 Location: counting my blessings
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| And you think you stack him every time or close when he has AK? |
no |
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BOYNAMEDSUE Moderator
Joined: 27 Jun 2005 Posts: 7581 Location: Toronto
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:27 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm with drtre1987. You have to stack him to break even with the odds, and you won't be able to do that most of the time. I like the pre-flop raise, but not the call, unless you're gonna bet the flop if he checks. A $4.75 bet might have been able to take that pot down on the flop. |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 7724 Location: Quitting smoking
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Btw I'd be very tempted to call the river but I don't know if you run into too many retarded slowplays instead of retarded bluffs to make that good. |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 1547 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm tempted to call the river as well. FWIW, you don't need to stack him every time you hit a set if you can take it down other times. Of course, that requires risking more money. What's this guy's c-bet %? Without that, looking at his other stats, I'd say this isn't someone you'd want to try take a 3-bet pot down against after missing your set. There are players I might call this against (though maybe I'm still wrong to do so?), because I know they are 3-betting pretty light. This guy doesn't seem to be one of them, though. |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 7724 Location: Quitting smoking
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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Calling PF can probably be profitable if villain is 3-betting light a lot and you have a decent idea of when to call down/bluff and when to just give up, but I still think that just 4-betting pre will usually be better in those spots.
There's also a pretty big gap between a range tight enough to call the 3-bet profitably to setmine and a range wide enough to call for other reasons. This is especially true if he isn't totally transparent with his postflop play. |
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drtre1987 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2018
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
| FWIW, you don't need to stack him every time you hit a set if you can take it down other times. Of course, that requires risking more money. What's this guy's c-bet %? Without that, looking at his other stats, I'd say this isn't someone you'd want to try take a 3-bet pot down against after missing your set. There are players I might call this against (though maybe I'm still wrong to do so?), because I know they are 3-betting pretty light. This guy doesn't seem to be one of them, though. |
The problem with calling the 3 bet intending to take the pot down without a set is that 44 plays so bad against his range. You are either way behind or flipping. You will never know where you are on the flop when you miss your set, and this just sets you up to make mistakes later in the hand. Unless you play very well postflop, I think it is just too hard to play hands like that profitably. |
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drtre1987 Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2018
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
Calling PF can probably be profitable if villain is 3-betting light a lot and you have a decent idea of when to call down/bluff and when to just give up, but I still think that just 4-betting pre will usually be better in those spots.
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Let me add that I'd really be cautious 4 betting light at FR, like in the hand in OP. Only do that against people who are 3 betting way too much for FR. At 6max and HU, you can 4 bet bluff much more liberally. There are times for doing this at FR, but you have to pick your opponent and spot correctly. |
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Honest_Rob Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 5849 Location: counting my blessings
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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| BOYNAMEDSUE wrote: |
| I'm with drtre1987. You have to stack him to break even with the odds, |
The implied odds are 14 to 1 assuming BTN folds. |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 7724 Location: Quitting smoking
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Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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| drtre, I think "3 betting way too much for FR" is a bad way to put it. That we should be 4-betting light less often in these spots is a result of 1) people stealing less in FR games and 2) people being bad at adjusting to the ones who do steal a lot. There's no inherent difference between FR and 6max that makes it correct to 3-bet or 4-bet light a lot less. |
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