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Honest_Rob
Forum Pro
Joined: 21 Jul 2005
Posts: 5849
Location: counting my blessings
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 Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:17 pm Post subject: 25NL 44 flops set - river decision |
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Readless.
Pay off the river?
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
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CO: $25
BTN: $24.65
SB: $45.20
BB: $22.20
UTG: $11.20
Hero (UTG+1): $28.05
UTG+2: $13.85
MP1: $28.90
MP2: $17.75
Pre-Flop: 4 4 dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 3 folds, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, BB checks
Flop: ($1.25) Q 4 8 (5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1, CO calls $1, 3 folds
Turn: ($3.25) A (2 Players)
Hero bets $2, CO calls $2
River: ($7.25) 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3, Hero ? |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7705
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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| I don't really think people turn a hand like TP/2nd pair into a bluff often enough to justify this call. In addition it's hard for him to have an A and a Q or worse without a club probably folds to the turn bet a lot. |
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nilgiri
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 1544
Location: New Hampshire
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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I think I always pay this off, but I also think this might be a leak in my game.
What about a check raise here? I'm curious if people think that is spew or not... I have a hard time imagining he's got a Kc often enough that he wants to call a river check raise, but obviously it would suck to run into a station... how often do we, and is a check raise scary enough given our previous line that we'll take it down often enough? |
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drtre1987
Message Board Junkie
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2016
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| nilgiri wrote: |
I think I always pay this off, but I also think this might be a leak in my game.
What about a check raise here? I'm curious if people think that is spew or not... I have a hard time imagining he's got a Kc often enough that he wants to call a river check raise, but obviously it would suck to run into a station... how often do we, and is a check raise scary enough given our previous line that we'll take it down often enough? |
I never ck/r here. Your hand has way too much showdown value to turn it into a bluff. Plus his range is pretty polarized to nuts or air. People will probably just pay off another bet with the 2nd or 3rd nuts at this level anyway, so you don't really fold out any marignal hands that have you beat. He's never value betting something like a 8c here that you can push him off of. |
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bdbranch
Banned
Joined: 13 Mar 2008
Posts: 503
Location: At home wdyt. Btw. I'm not opinionated all the time, umm can you be opinionated when you're asleep
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 4:59 pm Post subject: |
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| If you were interested in c/r (which I'd don't recommend) you would have been better to have led out and hoped to have forced any small flush to fold. As it is, I think that the river was a bit of check and hope villain doesn't bet & if villain does bet then look towards folding. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7705
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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I think it probably goes like this: c/f>c/r>c/c>b/f>b/c
drtre, while I don't think I like a c/r here, people will definitely show up with some crappy club they'll b/f a decent amount of the time. I definitely don't think this is a good example of a nuts/air spot because of that and how rarely villain will show up with air. Given the board and action it's much easier for him to show up with some mediocre club than total air.
bdbranch, I think basically the only redeeming quality of a river bet is that it makes him less likely to bluff us out than if we c/f. People will just rarely call the turn with a club and then fold the river when they hit their flush. |
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PokerJessO
Straight Flush
Joined: 28 Jun 2007
Posts: 404
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| Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject: |
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| Riddim wrote: |
| I think it probably goes like this: c/f>c/r>c/c>b/f>b/c |
I think you have c/r and c/c switched. Calling is a much better play than raising, since you have plenty of showdown value, but a very beatable hand.
Remember, betting has to accomplish one of three things - deny drawing odds (doesn't apply here), get a weaker hand to call (very unlikely on this board), or get a better hand to fold.
If villain has a club, it would have to be very low and the bet would have to be pretty large to get him to fold, especially at this level. So in order to raise enough to get weak flushes to fold, you would also be betting enough that he will fold if he has an ace.
I would definitely call here, for two reasons. For one, your opponent may very well be making this bet with an ace. Second, and possibly more important, by calling this bet you will learn a lot about villain's playstyle, which you can use to your advantage later. |
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Riddim
Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 7705
Location: Quitting smoking
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| Posted: Thu Jun 12, 2008 6:38 pm Post subject: |
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| I think checkraising is bad, I just think checkcalling is worse. With a c/r we at least fold out a decent amount of crappy flushes, whereas I think we're usually just giving money away when we c/c. Look at the board, what's he going to have that he'll bluff with? |
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