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Honest_Rob Postmaster General
Joined: 21 Jul 2005 Posts: 5560 Location: trying to get back to even
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| HuJwang wrote: |
| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| HuJwang wrote: |
| i might not even 3-bet him |
I didn't 3bet him. |
oops
then yeah.... i think it's a pretty close decision with the dead money CO has in there. actually, i wonder if the CO cold calling would make the 21/4 more or less likely to push a QQ hand? bleh i dunno, folding can't really be horrible so i guess you could go ahead and fold. |
Actually I'm curious about 3 betting a guy like this though. If he open raised and we were in LP wouldn't 3betting actually be a good thing to do because if he shoves we can pretty confidently fold because in a HU situation I doubt he shoves much besides AA/KK and maybe sometimes QQ. If we just call and flop a King or an Ace we probably lose more postflop than if we 3bet/fold preflop. Thoughts? |
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Riddim Moderator
Joined: 04 Dec 2005 Posts: 7252 Location: Quitting smoking
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Rob, you're leaving out a crucial piece of information, which is how we do against the ranges he raise/calls and raise/folds, and what those ranges are. |
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nilgiri Message Board Junkie
Joined: 11 Jan 2007 Posts: 1317 Location: New Hampshire
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Posted: Tue Jun 10, 2008 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Honest_Rob wrote: |
| Well it's been my experience recently that when these really tight players have a good hand that they want to play and then there's action in front of them they are more likely to just shove with that hand then fold it. It may just be a coincidence but I've seen a few of these tight guys do similar things in spots like this with a wider range than I would have thought and fwiw this was one of those times. I don't know why they do it. Maybe they get frustrated that they finally got a good hand and don't want to have to fold it. Also I think QQ+, AK is very reasonable and anything tighter than that is just too nitty even for a guy like this imo. He's not gonna fold QQ here. Anyway I'm getting correct odds barely against QQ+, AK. |
I don't know if this is generally the case or not, but folding is not the only other thing they can, or will, do. No, I doubt he ever folds QQ here, but I think he will occasionally call with QQ. I think more often than that he calls with TT, JJ, and AK (as opposed to shoving them), sometimes even folding these. While this type of player's range might well be TT+,AK -- probably even wider -- if we really want to include the times he pushes with stuff less than QQ, we really have to do a better job of determining how often. Because while he probably is with AA and KK, he certainly isn't pushing 100% of the time when he has TT.
I don't know what this says about whether to call or fold, because I haven't done the math. But I think putting him on a range of TT+,AK is too wide, because I do think he is calling -- and sometimes even folding -- with TT,JJ,AK. |
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